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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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One lesson we should probably try to keep in mind going forward is the RAP sucks.

 

Although...we all knew this would be hard due to time of year and temps in terms of stickage. We need the coastal to be legit. This first part really is wasted, and it sure would not have been even two weeks ago I suspect. 

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I'm pretty sure the NAM printed out an obscene amount of QPF by 12z.....

 

thru 4 am map. DCA has .18" thru 5. granted that band actually did well to the south for a while so they prob have double.

 

post-1615-0-43426200-1362564976_thumb.gi

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more precip filling in. steady light snow. there is a band from dca back SW that has been more or less not moving much. i am south of that quasi-stationary band yet I have seen steady light snow even in the 90 minute lull

roughly 2.7 inches of very wet snow

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Before late y-day no one was really expecting that initial WAA thump to be a huge deal around here. So perhaps we'll just end up with the initial forecasts verifying.

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This from LWX sounds good for you guys.

THE TRANSITION BETWEEN PHASES OF THIS INTENSE AND IMPACTFUL INCOMING

SNOWSTORM IS FULLY UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DROPPED DOWN

FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IS ABOUT TO BE

PHASED-OUT. THE NEWER AND STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE RALEIGH NC

AREA WILL CREATE A SNOWY AND HAZARDOUS WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE

MID-ATLC. THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE THE CRITICAL TRANSITION

PERIOD AS THIS LOW INTENSIFIES AND ROTATES DUE NE TOWARD THE LOWER

TIP OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND DEVELOPS HEAVY SNOW BAND ACROSS

THE NWRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...

A REGIONAL VIEW OF THE RADAR RETURNS SHOWS THAT SNOW STILL AFFECTING

MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...FROM CNTRL IN TO THE APLCNS...BUT THIS

AREA OF PRECIP REGION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ONLY

POCKETS OF HIGHER ELEVATION UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE

APLCN CHAIN.

THE FIRST PHASE OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW

OVER THE ENTIRE REGION IN JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS IS JUST THE START.

ABOUT A HALF-FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE CNTRL APLCNS...TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW INCHES HAVE

BEEN COMMON OVER THE SWRN QUADRANT OF THE CWA THRU 2-3AM. THE

HEAVIER BANDS THAT BROUGHT THIS ACTIVITY ARE NOW SPREADING ACROSS

THE DC/BALT AND THE PIEDMONT AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CREATE THE

FIRST LAYER OF SNOW AND ALLOW FOR THE INITIAL BASE FOR ACCUMULATIONS

FROM THE SECOND PHASE OF THE STORM.

WINDS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENTLY INCREASED...NORMALLY W/ SOME OF THE

HEAVIER BANDS BUT THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO 5-10MPH. THESE LOWER WIND

SPEEDS ARE ALLOWING FOR THE RELATIVELY HIGHER VISIBILITIES IN THE

1-2SM RANGE. THIS WILL CHANGE AS WINDS INCREASE AND SNOW

INTENSITIES INCREASE. DETERMINISTIC NAM AND GFS RUNS STILL BULLISH

ON QPF...SO THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A GOOD MIX OF NEAR TERM HI-RES

GUIDANCE...INCLUDING LOCAL VERSION OF THE VARIOUS WRF MEMBERS AND

ESPC THE HRRR WHICH HAS DONE WELL W/ INITIALIZING OVER THE FIRST

PART OF THIS EVENT.

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plow on my street

 

theres only one request I have for a plow

 

please shove all of the snow off of the street, into my driveway.

 

i really really LOVE to shovel 976 billion metric tons of wet snow. please add 32 degree water to it. snow is never EVER too heavy to shovel and I NEVER EVER get enough of shoveling it into ginormous piles that embarrass Woodbridge residents to tears.

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plow on my street

 

theres only one request I have for a plow

 

please shove all of the snow off of the street, into my driveway.

 

i really really LOVE to shovel 976 billion metric tons of wet snow. please add 32 degree water to it. snow is never EVER too heavy to shovel and I NEVER EVER get enough of shoveling it into ginormous piles that embarrass Woodbridge residents to tears.

 

You forgot to your meds today jeb...

 

lol enjoy it brotha

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