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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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But as Ian said improving. Plus, convective elements will generally have that spotty look at first. The issue with megabands is that you'll usually get that area of subsidence just outside them - so hopefully people get in on it. 

 

lets be honest here....this is on the brink of becoming an epic bust.....

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The real show begins soon (next few hours) as the upper PV anomaly phase locks with the low level diabatic/theta anomaly, everything stalls and heights crash, and wicked convective frontogenesis begins. as the PV tower forms. A lot of it is linking of the jet/front ageo circulation as high theta-e advects into the front and static stability drops rapidly...possibly becoming statically unstable. BL temps will be a close call though.

 

does that mean that we will actually see snow fall and stick?

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lets be honest here....this is on the brink of becoming an epic bust.....

Could be or it's just taking a while to get together. Mar 09 looked like a bust for quite a while. Plus this is already producing where we expected the jackpot.

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I don't want to overreact, but I keep expecting to go the window and find a landscape transformed to white.

Instead I see only puddles.

Starting to think inside beltway really might be too urban for a 33-35 paste job. The constantly sound of dripping water outside is unnerving. 5 hours of snow and a dusting, and this is at night. 

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Could be or it's just taking a while to get together. Mar 09 looked like a bust for quite a while. Plus this is already producing where we expected the jackpot.

I can't tell if the issue is banding, or really as it seems, surface temps. Plenty of wet out there, it's been snowing. Just puddling. Really seem to need even an hour or so of <32 just to cool surfaces. 

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lets be honest here....this is on the brink of becoming an epic bust.....

I can already tell you that's what people at the office will be telling me, even though I told them to stick to just the CWG forecast which was conservative. This is pathetic in my neck of the woods so far.

Those Winchester pics are great. Congrats out there.

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Could be or it's just taking a while to get together. Mar 09 looked like a bust for quite a while. Plus this is already producing where we expected the jackpot.

I have faith that once the low deepens offshore we will begin to accumulate. I refuse to believe that two inches of QPF fails to accumulate.

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I can't tell if the issue is banding, or really as it seems, surface temps. Plenty of wet out there, it's been snowing. Just puddling. Really seem to need even an hour or so of <32 just to cool surfaces. 

 

The issue seems to be right now that we aren't getting the rates we need. Let's see if baroclinic_instability can come through for us or if zwyts' pessimism is warranted. I'll give it the next few hours. 

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Starting to think inside beltway really might be too urban for a 33-35 paste job. The constantly sound of dripping water outside is unnerving. 5 hours of snow and a dusting, and this is at night.

you echo my concerns for mby. I'm due north of the bay in Cecil County. Woke up to 34-35 degrees and rain and snow. Windy though. I need someone to give me some encouraging words to placate me and prevent snow envy from getting out of control.
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i think it's a slow mover that is just taking its sweet time to organize, but i think it will.  i just think we're going to see the lower end of totals at this point.  this really wasn't supposed to be the main show.  that's supposed to be later in the morning.

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I can't tell if the issue is banding, or really as it seems, surface temps. Plenty of wet out there, it's been snowing. Just puddling. Really seem to need even an hour or so of <32 just to cool surfaces.

It's trying here now. Flakes are gigantic. No reason to give in yet.

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does that mean that we will actually see snow fall and stick?

 

 

does that mean that we will actually see snow fall and stick?

That is the question. Highly dependent upon exactly where the convective frontal band forms and stalls. In these convective snows extreme rates can easily overcome awful BL temps if it is shallow enough. The W-E snow gradient probably won't be pretty (for those on the east side of this). I am not sure what the local mets/NWS office is calling for, but the gradient will end up being very sharp most likely.

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March 2009 was 23 degrees

 

at height it was cold.. obviously we don't have that but at first people were jumping off bridges. 

 

radar looks 1 million times better now than it did 2 hours ago. i dunno how these temps will work .. we might get 6" on grass and have clear roads up here.

 

a 5-10 could mean like 3 for DCA.. you're about DCA in this situation. ;)

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at height it was cold.. obviously we don't have that but at first people were jumping off bridges. 

 

radar looks 1 million times better now than it did 2 hours ago. i dunno how these temps will work .. we might get 6" on grass and have clear roads up here.

 

a 5-10 could mean like 3 for DCA.. you're about DCA in this situation. ;)

3" would be 100 times more than I have right now

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That's fairly irrelevant to the conversation. It's not that it's not snowing. It certainly has. But there's been .3" or so of liquid that has fallen as snow with no accumulation. 

 

dca has only recorded .12 so far

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