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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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im talking the industry as a whole.. the idea that models are so good we live in a post-surprise world.

 

i dont need to get into fights with people upset about snow tho.. let it play out a bit longer. over recent days plenty said repeatedly that west was near a slam dunk.. this area was tricky.

Meh, not terribly affected either way, did just enjoy 30" up in SNE a few weeks back. More for the rest of DC. 

 

On topic, radar has a great look, and actually can see the formation of the pivot band right over the metro. How it plays out, and whether it'll stick, guess we'll see. 

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Just woke up from a bit of sleep.  Live in a third-floor apt. that faces some trees on the S side of CHO.  Out of the corner of my eye just saw what I thought was lightning.  Nope.  Transformers blowing.  Really sick aqua-tinted flashes with these deep, visceral buzzing sounds--at least three of them.  Haven't heard/seen that since the derecho.  Can hear trees cracking all over.  Probably won't have power for too much longer.  But what a show on the way out! 

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Meh, not terribly affected either way, did just enjoy 30" up in SNE a few weeks back. More for the rest of DC.

On topic, radar has a great look, and actually can see the formation of the pivot band right over the metro. How it plays out, and whether it'll stick, guess we'll see.

The storm is getting is still in its early stages I think most will be still pleased
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Meh, not terribly affected either way, did just enjoy 30" up in SNE a few weeks back. More for the rest of DC. 

 

On topic, radar has a great look, and actually can see the formation of the pivot band right over the metro. How it plays out, and whether it'll stick, guess we'll see. 

 

i should have slept. lol.

 

not sure how much that first band remains the focus. hopefully not much since it moved through.

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The storm is getting is still in its early stages I think most will be still pleased

 

I think some people are rightfully getting disappointed because the WAA is waining, not realizing the coastal isn't supposed to start to strengthen until between 9z and 12z 9around now).  After that, colder air should be drawn in.

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<p>Heaviest snow of the night I'm guessing here @ Front Royal, with this paste I'm guessing dawn is going to be absolutely beautiful. </p>

<p> </p>

<p>From now till 10 o'clock the radar & death band will form, however like I keep saying there is going to be a highly convective band that forms from the CCB turning in on itself. This will be from about DC to central DE. I think this band forms around 11-1pm </p>

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I think some people are rightfully getting disappointed because the WAA is waining, not realizing the coastal isn't supposed to start to strengthen until between 9z and 12z 9around now). After that, colder air should be drawn in.

Yeah thats exactly it. Wouldn't be the first time these hi res models overdid waa snow if thats the. Case.

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I just came from the window and I got the sense that something is changing...the dendrites look better, the air felt colder (wind has switched to the N)...that sort of thing. I think things will turnaround within the next hour

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One lesson we should probably try to keep in mind going forward is the RAP sucks.

 

Although...we all knew this would be hard due to time of year and temps in terms of stickage. We need the coastal to be legit. This first part really is wasted, and it sure would not have been even two weeks ago I suspect. 

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I'm pretty sure the NAM printed out an obscene amount of QPF by 12z.....

 

thru 4 am map. DCA has .18" thru 5. granted that band actually did well to the south for a while so they prob have double.

 

post-1615-0-43426200-1362564976_thumb.gi

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