Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 lets be honest here....this is on the brink of becoming an epic bust..... Could be or it's just taking a while to get together. Mar 09 looked like a bust for quite a while. Plus this is already producing where we expected the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't want to overreact, but I keep expecting to go the window and find a landscape transformed to white. Instead I see only puddles. Starting to think inside beltway really might be too urban for a 33-35 paste job. The constantly sound of dripping water outside is unnerving. 5 hours of snow and a dusting, and this is at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is that accumulation more due to temperature or intensity? What's your current temp?? Current at my house is 30.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Could be or it's just taking a while to get together. Mar 09 looked like a bust for quite a while. Plus this is already producing where we expected the jackpot. I can't tell if the issue is banding, or really as it seems, surface temps. Plenty of wet out there, it's been snowing. Just puddling. Really seem to need even an hour or so of <32 just to cool surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 lets be honest here....this is on the brink of becoming an epic bust..... I can already tell you that's what people at the office will be telling me, even though I told them to stick to just the CWG forecast which was conservative. This is pathetic in my neck of the woods so far. Those Winchester pics are great. Congrats out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Dayum. Enjoy your 2 feet. First thing I did when I woke was to check DC obs. I really hope for the best there. Isn't, and hasn't the real show down there always been supposed to be later than this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Could be or it's just taking a while to get together. Mar 09 looked like a bust for quite a while. Plus this is already producing where we expected the jackpot. I have faith that once the low deepens offshore we will begin to accumulate. I refuse to believe that two inches of QPF fails to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I can't tell if the issue is banding, or really as it seems, surface temps. Plenty of wet out there, it's been snowing. Just puddling. Really seem to need even an hour or so of <32 just to cool surfaces. The issue seems to be right now that we aren't getting the rates we need. Let's see if baroclinic_instability can come through for us or if zwyts' pessimism is warranted. I'll give it the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Starting to think inside beltway really might be too urban for a 33-35 paste job. The constantly sound of dripping water outside is unnerving. 5 hours of snow and a dusting, and this is at night.you echo my concerns for mby. I'm due north of the bay in Cecil County. Woke up to 34-35 degrees and rain and snow. Windy though. I need someone to give me some encouraging words to placate me and prevent snow envy from getting out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 LOL relax my god. The system is only starting to piece together..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 FCPS closed... Finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 i think it's a slow mover that is just taking its sweet time to organize, but i think it will. i just think we're going to see the lower end of totals at this point. this really wasn't supposed to be the main show. that's supposed to be later in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I can't tell if the issue is banding, or really as it seems, surface temps. Plenty of wet out there, it's been snowing. Just puddling. Really seem to need even an hour or so of <32 just to cool surfaces. It's trying here now. Flakes are gigantic. No reason to give in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 does that mean that we will actually see snow fall and stick? does that mean that we will actually see snow fall and stick? That is the question. Highly dependent upon exactly where the convective frontal band forms and stalls. In these convective snows extreme rates can easily overcome awful BL temps if it is shallow enough. The W-E snow gradient probably won't be pretty (for those on the east side of this). I am not sure what the local mets/NWS office is calling for, but the gradient will end up being very sharp most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Woke up looked outside still mixing a lot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 LOL relax my god. The system is only starting to piece together..... That's fairly irrelevant to the conversation. It's not that it's not snowing. It certainly has. But there's been .3" or so of liquid that has fallen as snow with no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr2 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 32.7 in Bel Air. Snow is falling, but only the grass and cars are seeing accumulating snow. The pavement is just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 March 2009 was 23 degrees at height it was cold.. obviously we don't have that but at first people were jumping off bridges. radar looks 1 million times better now than it did 2 hours ago. i dunno how these temps will work .. we might get 6" on grass and have clear roads up here. a 5-10 could mean like 3 for DCA.. you're about DCA in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's fairly irrelevant to the conversation. It's not that it's not snowing. It certainly has. But there's been .3" or so of liquid that has fallen as snow with no accumulation. Go read the latest afd that came out a half hour ago if you want to feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm starting to accum on hard surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's fairly irrelevant to the conversation. It's not that it's not snowing. It certainly has. But there's been .3" or so of liquid that has fallen as snow with no accumulation. dca has only recorded .12 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 3" would be 100 times more than I have right now this super band is pretty lame so far up here might be good to have a nice bust .. we're all getting too cocky these days.. tho i think we knew the gradient had high bust potential. perhaps we got fooled late yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just woke up. Decent snowfall at my house but my immediate impression ran toward what I am reading in the last few pages from zwyts I appear to be riding a REALLY fine line between snow and rain, and only have around an inch so far. Grassy surfaces accumulation only at this point. Glad to read baroclinic's thoughts, but this is going to be a really close call here and I don't expect huge totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You might want to check out the latest LWX AFD. Its a fascinating read http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off The radar has this curious crosshatched look to it. This is the look of energies in transition. The last time I saw this look to the radar was back in........................................................................................ That's right: February 2010. We are all about to be utterly destroyed by heavy snows, monster bands and winds that may create near whiteout conditions. Strap yourselves in securely and hold on, this is going to be one hell of a wild ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 My temp is slightly above freezing: 32.1/32. I think this suggests that the (lack of) intensity is to blame for poor accumulation combined with urbanization . And, though I cannot be sure, it appears to be mixing still. If the landscape isn't whitened by 7am I will sit shiva the remainder of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 this super band is pretty lame so far up here might be good to have a nice bust .. we're all getting too cocky these days.. tho i think we knew the gradient had high bust potential. perhaps we got fooled late yesterday. It's been over 2 years without 2" I think we're all far from cocky at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Zwyts I apologize thought you were in DC until I switched from mobile skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thanks Jeb, that was a good read from LWX. Always a tense time waiting for the coastal to take over and hoping it unfolds like it is progged. I remember clearly how most of us gave up on the the second February blitz in 2010 until all of a sudden radar exploded just before dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's been over 2 years without 2" I think we're all far from cocky at this point. im talking the industry as a whole.. the idea that models are so good we live in a post-surprise world. i dont need to get into fights with people upset about snow tho.. let it play out a bit longer. over recent days plenty said repeatedly that west was near a slam dunk.. this area was tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 AM CST WED MAR 06 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV-VA-MD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060825Z - 061230Z SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH AN HOUR WILL BE COMMON ACROSS PORTIONS OF MD SWWD INTO NRN VA AND ERN WV. LOCALIZED HIGHER RATES /1 TO 1.5 INCH PER HOUR/ WILL PREFERENTIALLY FAVOR AND INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ALONG THE E-FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WV-MD-VA. DISCUSSION...THE LAST FEW HOURS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF A MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT IMPINGING ON SRN-CNTRL VA AS A MID LEVEL LOW MIGRATES EWD FROM ERN KY/TN AND STRADDLES THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z. CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM...00Z GFS...AND 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE MID LEVEL DRYSLOT EVOLUTION FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR NEAR THE D.C. - BALTIMORE VICINITY. THE NAM APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SEEMINGLY PROBABLE IN MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THIS REGION WHEN COMPARED TO LOOPS OF RADAR MOSAIC REFLECTIVITY. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE D.C. AND BALTIMORE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 09-10Z AND 10-11Z...RESPECTIVELY. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH AN ABATEMENT IN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES AS THE DEEP SATURATED COLUMN JUXTAPOSED WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMES RELEGATED FARTHER W OVER NRN VA...NERN WV...AND WRN MD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW /CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NERN NC/ DEVELOPING NEWD TO THE TIDEWATER VICINITY BY 12-15Z. UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OWING TO INCREASING ELY FLOW IN THE H9-H85 LAYER AROUND 40 KTS WILL ACT TO AUGMENT SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE ERN FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER PARTS OF WV-MD-VA /RATES 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER HOUR/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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