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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0952 PM CST TUE MAR 05 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN VA...A LARGE PART OF   MD...WASHINGTON DC...PORTIONS OF FAR SRN PA      CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW       VALID 060352Z - 060945Z      SUMMARY...SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS   PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.      DISCUSSION...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL PV MAX   CONTINUES OVERTAKING A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE   CAROLINAS...A SFC LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATTENDANT FRONT IN   CNTRL NC WHERE PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4 MB PER 2 HOURS HAVE BEEN NOTED.   AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NEWD/NWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...A   STRENGTHENING 850-700-MB FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT   INCREASING MESOSCALE ASCENT. IN TURN...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE   TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AMID AN ELEVATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT.      WHILE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE INITIALLY MARGINAL FOR SNOW   FROM THE DC AREA INTO NRN VA...THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COOLING OWING   TO FORCED ASCENT AND WET-BULB/NOCTURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD AID IN   LOWERING WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS TOWARD THE SFC DURING THE NEXT FEW   HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ISALLOBARIC FORCING SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW   BACK AND BECOME MORE NLY...RESULTING IN COOLER AIR BEING DRAWN INTO   THE REGION. AS SUCH...SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION   TYPE ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z...WITH SNOW RATES INCREASING TO 1-1.5   IN/HR THEREAFTER. LOCALLY HIGHER RATES MAY OCCUR IN UPSLOPE-FAVORED   AREAS AND RIDGETOPS OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THESE RATES WILL   LIKELY SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME...ROUGHLY IN TANDEM WITH THE TRACK OF   THE LOW...REACHING THE DC AREA MORE LIKELY AFTER 08Z. THESE RATES   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN.
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May have to take a ride to Snickers Gap on Rt 7, 1200 ft. Should be a nice scene tomorrow up there, but shenandoah natl park, would be awesome for this event 2-3K feet

I guess it would be a bit treacherous, but if you went up blue ridge mountain road from 7, it'd take you straight up to almost 1800 feet.

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