das Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 45.1F in sunny Clarksburg on a NW wind of 4mph. I thought it would have gone to calm by now. DP is holding steady at 16F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Satellite Image Looks like Hand of God is coming from Canada: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just gonna say it and we all know this anyway, but this has huge bust factor written all over it in both directions. This could be a lot higher snowfall totals in DC if everything is snow. This is a strong wound up system. I know it's March but the storm looks impressive on the models. But it could also bust low since it is March and the storm could throw in some warmer air. I'd lean towards more snow though based off everything I have seen. Should be interesting to see what happens by Thursday morning. Ahhh! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Will cloud cover have any effect on us cooling tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 like 85% of the CWG members are mets. i don't list myself as a met there. the analogy is pretty poor though. there's a huge difference between knowing how to forecast and cutting someone open. Agree completely. There are many non-mets on this board (and certainly at CWG) that are far, far better at operational meteorology than me, despite my tag. You want to talk remote sensing or reanalysis, I'm your guy. If you want to go deep into OpMet with me, the foundation of the discussion will be core classes I took back in the 80's........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am guessing that we want to wake up to some good rates tomorrow morning lets say between 09z and 12z... I am thinking those of us within 30 miles of I-95 (to our east) want to have a few inches of snow on the ground... and hope that will help the marginal atmossphere keep us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Will cloud cover have any effect on us cooling tonight? Of course. We will almost certainly be at or above freezing around when precip starts at the surface, but the above-freezing layer of the atmosphere will be very shallow tonight (and probably the whole column will be below freezing after midnight for a time) so I still think most of us will start as snow after maybe a brief period of sprinkles and virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Of course. We will almost certainly be at or above freezing around when precip starts at the surface, but the above-freezing layer of the atmosphere will be very shallow tonight (and probably the whole column will be below freezing after midnight for a time) so I still think most of us will start as snow after maybe a brief period of sprinkles and virga. I hope your right... Its almost 50 here in Baltimore City. If its going to be sunny all day, then at least there would have been some radiational cooling. Now I see high clouds moving in which will limit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 46 now. It would be nice if it stopped getting warmer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 we have been over this topic dozens of times--it can snow and accumulate when it has been above freezing the day prior. especially if it rips snow. Rates can overcome warm ground if a jiffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 46 now. It would be nice if it stopped getting warmer now. this the map we should stress over at this point http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=de&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The ground is not warm. Average temp has been below freezing for days. Either way it doesn't matter. This afternoon's temps are no concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Waiting for the NWS to issue warnings is like watching paint dry..Anyway like WxUSAF said, Temps today are worthless...the 1pm OBS have the dewpoints in the teens for most locations. Thats what matters right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The ground is not warm. Average temp has been below freezing for days. Either way it doesn't matter. This afternoon's temps are no concern. Don't think ground temps matter a lot except for roads which are surely taking on some good heating with sun. But even there 1" hr sets you free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Warnings should be issued by 4pm after all afternoon guidance is in according to LWX. Had someone tell me they spoke with someone there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't think ground temps matter a lot except for roads which are surely taking on some good heating with sun. But even there 1" hr sets you free. If we start as snow around midnight, I fully expect that it will accumulate almost immediately on non-road surfaces. Not that I'll be awake to see it, but someone can feel free to verify that forecast for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The ground is not warm. Average temp has been below freezing for days. Either way it doesn't matter. This afternoon's temps are no concern. Yup. Ground is still frozen solid in Clarksburg, as of 1:30pm. DP has dropped 3F to a lovely 12F in the last 3 hours. I'm wondering if we are not all snow after some virga and a couple minutes of sprinkles at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yup. Ground is still frozen solid in Clarksburg, as of 1:30pm. DP has dropped 3F to a lovely 12F in the last 3 hours. I'm wondering if we are not all snow after some virga and a couple minutes of sprinkles at onset. I think people will be surprised how "easily" we go from almost 50° to snow flying in the air. DP 13° at DCA at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If we start as snow around midnight, I fully expect that it will accumulate almost immediately on non-road surfaces. Not that I'll be awake to see it, but someone can feel free to verify that forecast for me. You're the met so I would always defer to you but I was lucky to hit 32 this morning with a basically clear sky. I'm at close to 50 now and I can't see how I will drop 15 degrees between now and then, to just get in the ballpark unless precip starts earlier tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You're the met so I would always defer to you but I was lucky to hit 32 this morning with a basically clear sky. I'm at close to 50 now and I can't see how I will drop 15 degrees between now and then, to just get in the ballpark unless precip starts earlier tonight. Read up: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/epz/wxcalc/wetBulbTdFromRh.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think people will be surprised how "easily" we go from almost 50° to snow flying in the air. DP 13° at DCA at 1pm. I think the day before our last snow "event" in February was in the low 50s during the day and it snowed overnight. Seems we have to go through this discussion every time though. You're the met so I would always defer to you but I was lucky to hit 32 this morning with a basically clear sky. I'm at close to 50 now and I can't see how I will drop 15 degrees between now and then, to just get in the ballpark unless precip starts earlier tonight. Your dewpoint right now is probably around 15F, so your wet bulb is in the 30s somewhere right now. Temps are going to nestle right down to near 32 overnight and most of us will probably be in the range of 31-34F all day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Read up: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/epz/wxcalc/wetBulbTdFromRh.pdf Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Heavy heavy brine accum on balt Bway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm kind of excited about tonight...not that people are punting it, but the 1st 6 hours could end up being productive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Heavy heavy brine accum on balt Bway. 495 Outer Loop going into Maryland was treated as of 6:30 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know it's hours later, but look at IADs sounding this morning at 7AM in particular, the wet bulb temp the winds have remained out of the NW all day too http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm kind of excited about tonight...not that people are punting it, but the 1st 6 hours could end up being productive It's going to be like hanging from a rope high above the ground. The longer you hang on the longer you live to keep fighting. I'm cautiously optimistic for dca to do ok here. I've seen enough today. They could break the streak with 2-3" before any mixing. There is also a chance that mixing may not happen much at all except when there are lulls in the heavy heavies. I'm pretty excited for all of us near beltway'ers to have a great time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's going to be like hanging from a rope high above the ground. The longer you hang on the longer you live to keep fighting. I'm cautiously optimistic for dca to do ok here. I've seen enough today. They could break the streak with 2-3" before any mixing. There is also a chance that mixing may not happen much at all except when there are lulls in the heavy heavies. I'm pretty excited for all of us near beltway'ers to have a great time tomorrow. I think the key is for people to keep their expectations in check. We've seen the qpf numbers from the NAM and it's been difficult to not get excited. I'm east of 95 in Annapolis, I just want to break the 2" streak and take the kids sledding on the hill. Give me 4" and I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 precip is still backing SW out of Maine, so the block is winning so far pretty impressive actually I note as well precip in VA being eaten by dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well--thankfully I had a few chips left over to go all in on this one. I mean after the Valentine's Day debacle and all, I just wasn't sure anymore what to think. Really looking forward to a great streak breaking Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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