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The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread


Ji

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more precip filling in. steady light snow. there is a band from dca back SW that has been more or less not moving much. i am south of that quasi-stationary band yet I have seen steady light snow even in the 90 minute lull

roughly 2.7 inches of very wet snow

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Before late y-day no one was really expecting that initial WAA thump to be a huge deal around here. So perhaps we'll just end up with the initial forecasts verifying.

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This from LWX sounds good for you guys.

THE TRANSITION BETWEEN PHASES OF THIS INTENSE AND IMPACTFUL INCOMING

SNOWSTORM IS FULLY UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DROPPED DOWN

FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IS ABOUT TO BE

PHASED-OUT. THE NEWER AND STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE RALEIGH NC

AREA WILL CREATE A SNOWY AND HAZARDOUS WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE

MID-ATLC. THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE THE CRITICAL TRANSITION

PERIOD AS THIS LOW INTENSIFIES AND ROTATES DUE NE TOWARD THE LOWER

TIP OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND DEVELOPS HEAVY SNOW BAND ACROSS

THE NWRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW DURING THE DAYTIME HRS.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...

A REGIONAL VIEW OF THE RADAR RETURNS SHOWS THAT SNOW STILL AFFECTING

MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...FROM CNTRL IN TO THE APLCNS...BUT THIS

AREA OF PRECIP REGION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ONLY

POCKETS OF HIGHER ELEVATION UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE

APLCN CHAIN.

THE FIRST PHASE OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW

OVER THE ENTIRE REGION IN JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS IS JUST THE START.

ABOUT A HALF-FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE CNTRL APLCNS...TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW INCHES HAVE

BEEN COMMON OVER THE SWRN QUADRANT OF THE CWA THRU 2-3AM. THE

HEAVIER BANDS THAT BROUGHT THIS ACTIVITY ARE NOW SPREADING ACROSS

THE DC/BALT AND THE PIEDMONT AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CREATE THE

FIRST LAYER OF SNOW AND ALLOW FOR THE INITIAL BASE FOR ACCUMULATIONS

FROM THE SECOND PHASE OF THE STORM.

WINDS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENTLY INCREASED...NORMALLY W/ SOME OF THE

HEAVIER BANDS BUT THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO 5-10MPH. THESE LOWER WIND

SPEEDS ARE ALLOWING FOR THE RELATIVELY HIGHER VISIBILITIES IN THE

1-2SM RANGE. THIS WILL CHANGE AS WINDS INCREASE AND SNOW

INTENSITIES INCREASE. DETERMINISTIC NAM AND GFS RUNS STILL BULLISH

ON QPF...SO THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A GOOD MIX OF NEAR TERM HI-RES

GUIDANCE...INCLUDING LOCAL VERSION OF THE VARIOUS WRF MEMBERS AND

ESPC THE HRRR WHICH HAS DONE WELL W/ INITIALIZING OVER THE FIRST

PART OF THIS EVENT.

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plow on my street

 

theres only one request I have for a plow

 

please shove all of the snow off of the street, into my driveway.

 

i really really LOVE to shovel 976 billion metric tons of wet snow. please add 32 degree water to it. snow is never EVER too heavy to shovel and I NEVER EVER get enough of shoveling it into ginormous piles that embarrass Woodbridge residents to tears.

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plow on my street

 

theres only one request I have for a plow

 

please shove all of the snow off of the street, into my driveway.

 

i really really LOVE to shovel 976 billion metric tons of wet snow. please add 32 degree water to it. snow is never EVER too heavy to shovel and I NEVER EVER get enough of shoveling it into ginormous piles that embarrass Woodbridge residents to tears.

 

You forgot to your meds today jeb...

 

lol enjoy it brotha

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I'm pretty sure the NAM printed out an obscene amount of QPF by 12z.....

yea I wish I could say everything is going according to schedule but your right.  NAM and GFS had DCA well over .5 qpf by 12z.  That burst of .6 in 6 hours was what I was counting on to cool the boundary layer and get a nice 3-5" of snow into DC.  From 12z on it was dicey as the banding was more hit or miss.  Not sure why people keep saying wait for the coastal to get going.  The heaviest precip was supposed to be from 1am to 9am with some additional heavy bands but more sporadic swinging through after that.  FOr some reason the precip is just not cranking like it was supposed too.  Most of the obs indicate light to moderate, that is not enough to overcome the warm surface temps.  I am way too tired to try to analyze what went wrong overnight, maybe one of the mets can post on that but this was definitely not what I had in mind. 

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This is what the NAM said should have fallen by 7am, the actual qpf has been nothing close.  I know the NAM is overdone but the GFS was not far off overnight and other high res models all were well over .5 qpf by 12z.  Curious to see what DCA actual QPF is at 7am, but I am guessing closer to .25


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yea I wish I could say everything is going according to schedule but your right.  NAM and GFS had DCA well over .5 qpf by 12z.  That burst of .6 in 6 hours was what I was counting on to cool the boundary layer and get a nice 3-5" of snow into DC.  From 12z on it was dicey as the banding was more hit or miss.  Not sure why people keep saying wait for the coastal to get going.  The heaviest precip was supposed to be from 1am to 9am with some additional heavy bands but more sporadic swinging through after that.  FOr some reason the precip is just not cranking like it was supposed too.  Most of the obs indicate light to moderate, that is not enough to overcome the warm surface temps.  I am way too tired to try to analyze what went wrong overnight, maybe one of the mets can post on that but this was definitely not what I had in mind. 

 

6z and hires models have come in indicating the main show will be later. This right now is just a part of the storm in transition. You can clearly see on radar where the shield is setting up. Remember, those same models had the deformation axis rotating up toward PA at this time too, and that is not hapenning

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