Zeus Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BOX map look ok for BOS. The grids and 4" probability maps leans closer to the 4+ end of the 2-4 their official map has. I think 4-8 is probably reasonable, but understand the 3-5 in the WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow at the GFS...that's a scraper with the firehose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BOX forecast seems reasonable here. 3-6'' of mashed potatoes drawn out from 00z Thursday to like 15z Friday. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Straight question, so you're expecting an inch or so of rain down by Bob? BOX has 4-6 for him... I'd probably do like a 5-10 band from ORH down to TAN to include those elevated spots like Foxborough and Sharon but I don't think we're that far off. Then 3-5 for Boston and vicinity down toward you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I started a new thread as 2,200 post is getting bit difficult to wade through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Straight question, so you're expecting an inch or so of rain down by Bob? I don't buy the mesoscale models at all. I think they're way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah not sure why everyone's bashing it. I think its going to be too low over a good chunk of the CP from interior SE MA to perhaps up by Ray and also low out in the ORH hills to NW RI...but I could def be wrong. I understand why they are going conservative, but I personally just don't agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The grids and 4" probability maps leans closer to the 4+ end of the 2-4 their official map has. I think 4-8 is probably reasonable, but understand the 3-5 in the WWA. I mean there is a bust potential, but it's not like I look at the map and ask what are they smoking...put it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Actually fully expected, and may still be too high for SW ME. Not much different from the am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think its going to be too low over a good chunk of the CP from interior SE MA to perhaps up by Ray and also low out in the ORH hills to NW RI...but I could def be wrong. I understand why they are going conservative, but I personally just don't agree with it. I would probably do like 5-10 from Bob up to you - so yeah they are conservative - but I don't think it's a terrible call. I think at least for a while they'll struggle with boundary layer issues and I think the mesoscale models are just way too robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow at the GFS...that's a scraper with the firehose. what's funny about that... The GFS hammered a bigger deal for like 8 cycles or whatever large number of runs it was, and the Euro wanted nothing to do with it. Now that we are almost right on top of the thing, the GFS is whiffing and the Euro ...while not directly impacting, is on the same page with the NAM in creating that indirect deep layer conveyor event. If the latter verifies, the GFS clearly had absolutely zippo clue about this system other than to acknowledge there was anything at all on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I mean there is a bust potential, but it's not like I look at the map and ask what are they smoking...put it that way. Agreed. I don't mind the conservative approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't know... tonight never looked good to me. Even yesterday I wasn't expecting more than 1-3. signs were there I just think that this one is slipping away from us not just based on GFS but radar trends as well. Lets hope tomorrow is special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 lock this thread..new one out... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39621-march-6-8th-ocean-storm-discussion-part-iv/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think its going to be too low over a good chunk of the CP from interior SE MA to perhaps up by Ray and also low out in the ORH hills to NW RI...but I could def be wrong. I understand why they are going conservative, but I personally just don't agree with it. I do agree it's prob a bit too low for ORH and the hills of int se ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why do you sign your posts? We know who posted it. <---- It's right over there. Sorry, I've just always been curious. It's a sense of responsibility I guess, I feel like by putting my name on it, I'm accountable for what I'm saying. also because I write a zillion emails, and sign them with the same style, so it just comes natrually I guess.... I've come very close to sending a work email signed skisheep, caught it just in time GFS is ugly... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BOX has 4-6 for him... I'd probably do like a 5-10 band from ORH down to TAN to include those elevated spots like Foxborough and Sharon but I don't think we're that far off. Then 3-5 for Boston and vicinity down toward you. Yeah it doesn't have to be an inch of rain or 20-30" of snow. You can still have an 8 inch snowfall that's like 5:1 slop at 34F with a bunch of drawn out QPF falling as just wet snow that really has a hard time accumulating unless rates are high. Or you are melting as fast as its falling in those marginal areas when you aren't ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, I need to get home...ORH moderate snow and 31F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't buy the mesoscale models at all. I think they're way overdone. They are the high rez nam sim radar had a wall of precip in here by 6ish, the radar is abysmal. How the american guidance could be any further apart is actually pathetic, nearing 20 inches of snow on the nam for western ct to a couple inches on the gfs. What is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BOX has 4-6 for him... I'd probably do like a 5-10 band from ORH down to TAN to include those elevated spots like Foxborough and Sharon but I don't think we're that far off. Then 3-5 for Boston and vicinity down toward you. Gotcha, I think I'm kind of screwed with temps but that hasn't changed. GFS was woeful at 18z in the Delmarva from what I can tell. Didn't really get that close to .5 where probably 1" will fall. The other cluster of models was reasonable. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_006_precip_p06.gif http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?map=akq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 18z gfs says round 1 will be over at 1am in CT. lol that would make it a few hours in duration.. is it possible we don't see a flake from round 1? I'm tossing it, that seems crazy that it's shutting it off by 1 AM, nothing else agrees with it whatsoever, and not just because of low QPF, shutting it off so early makes no sense to me... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, I need to get home...ORH moderate snow and 31F now. that was a very brief band , i'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 what's funny about that... The GFS hammered a bigger deal for like 8 cycles or whatever large number of runs it was, and the Euro wanted nothing to do with it. Not that we are almost right on top of the thing, the GFS is whiffing and the Euro ...while not directly impacting, is on the same page with the NAM in creating that indirect deep layer conveyor event. If the latter verifies, the GFS clearly had absolutely zippo clue about this system other than to acknowledge there was anything at all on the maps. I'm still laughing at those GFS runs that had warning snows all across both BTV and GYX's CWAs. One run had like .75" QPF north of Montreal, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 what's funny about that... The GFS hammered a bigger deal for like 8 cycles or whatever large number of runs it was, and the Euro wanted nothing to do with it. Not that we are almost right on top of the thing, the GFS is whiffing and the Euro ...while not directly impacting, is on the same page with the NAM in creating that indirect deep layer conveyor event. If the latter verifies, the GFS clearly had absolutely zippo clue about this system other than to acknowledge there was anything at all on the maps. It's actually a little better than the 12z, and is starting to form up the firehose a bit better. Look at the QPF up towards Ray, it's increased a smidge in the tight gradient . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 that was a very brief band , i'd think Yes its cellular stuff...but its going to be sticking pretty quick now with darkness falling and temps below freezing already...should be increasing in coverage too as we go through the evening. Shows how chilly the airmass is aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The slp on the 18z gfs is maybe a smidgen NW of the 12z but fairly close overall. It didn't move any further se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, I need to get home...ORH moderate snow and 31F now. Yeah dude..these squalls are the real deal..Just blinding with hvy snow and winds..everything whitens up..then it lets up and another one comes in. hopefully we can pound down 1-3 tonoght Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, I need to get home...ORH moderate snow and 31F now. Snowing here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Harv on the ball, 5-9" for much of the SW Burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I also think attention probably should turn to tomorrow night for areas in ern ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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