ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think they gave up on the GGEM tonight...it hasn't even initialized and its almost midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think they gave up on the GGEM tonight...it hasn't even initialized and its almost midnight.RGEM out to 48, but no sign of GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Tip, Now that its driving it SE, the gfs may want to try to phase that feature in earlier on subsequent runs. If it is a "trend", it could trend for the better. No, not a trend at a 1 pt run. Need two for a trend. It could turn into a trend - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS are still a huge crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We should do karate in the garage. It's odd to me that the gfs had so many adjustments so early but then again maybe I shouldn't view it as odd as I figured it was off its rocker. Correcting may be a better word. The rgem has the main ULL in a good position with the northern energy coming down. The negative sentiment is partly the crappy nam which should be ignored up here. First sentence is from step brothers (movie).. I am saying we share the same idea not challenging you to a duel. In the most stable solution scenarios, the GFS is known to insert a run or two of 'whaaat'... Not sure why the GFS is obtrusive with that feature suddenly, but we can't say this is any beginning of any capitulation - that's absurd to me. 1 this feature isn't featured in any other model type, like it is "suddenly" and "inconsistently" on this run. 2 in its absence, the result is still the same; though, it's still meaningful, albeit middling in this run. 3 if the new features exertion verifies, you can't blame the GFS, erstwhile, because it would be the first run that saw it. But I can see the clan just default scapegoating as usual. Just to inject some hypothetical humor; Tip is trained in Kung Fu not Karate. Which is to say the solid, engrained stances of the supposed master are sometimes sublimated by the dynamic adaptations of the more fluid yet often overlooked long term practitoner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS are still a huge crushing. Nope ... the consensus has already decided - it has to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS are still a huge crushing.Man are they ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS 1.5 from portland maine to 20 miles N of rochester,nh to rindge nh to tolland ct have 2.0 plus thru fri eve from exeter,nh to northborough,ma to NW corner of RI 2.5 from lynn,ma to BOS, ma to NE corner of ri/border with mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just to inject some hypothetical humor; Tip is trained in Kung Fu not Karate. Which is to say the solid, engrained stances of the supposed master are sometimes sublimated by the dynamic adaptations of the more fluid yet often overlooked long term practitoner. Lol. I speak terse-wise some times, but ... " the default position of the collective will scapegoat the GFS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Noyes had a good "technical" rant on twitter a few mins ago. Talked about Model biases and how the GFS might be right! HA In end went with a slightly SE GEFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where are you people getting the GEFS from? NCEP nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where are you people getting the GEFS from? NCEP nada http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hard to believe how much GEFS has been steady. Why do folks forget about Raleighs site, linked on menu where it says models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No one in SNE should be unhappy if that comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not really sure why so much bellyaching about the GFS tonight...cut back a bit on QPF in CT...but a smidge colder as well. End result a bit of a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No GGEM here at work either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No GGEM here at work either. WSI gets it fast and it hasn't even initialized yet on there. Oh well...given the RGEM look, the GGEM was probably going to be a big hit since it usually follows the RGEM (but not always) except just slightly less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not really sure why so much bellyaching about the GFS tonight...cut back a bit on QPF in CT...but a smidge colder as well. End result a bit of a wash. Any reasonable weenie should expect the GFS to back off at least a little bit considering how wound up it (and the NAM) was at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not really sure why so much bellyaching about the GFS tonight...cut back a bit on QPF in CT...but a smidge colder as well. End result a bit of a wash. thats the way i feel about it. Ill sacrifice an inch of QPF for a more frozen column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No GGEM here at work either. When as an undergrad, inexplicable delivery outages almost always correlated with a bigger events - we never knew why, and still don't. heh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its less than 48 hours to the start of the storm here and I have no idea if ORH is getting 20 inches or 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its less than 48 hours to the start of the storm here and I have no idea if ORH is getting 20 inches or 4 inches. Exhillerating, isn't it? Hopefully things become quite a bit clearer in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I remember the day before DCs snowmageddon. I was standing on my deck listening to the jet roar above my head thinking no way are we getting any of that. I will be listening intently tomorrow night. Something has to give. That easterly fetch is a bit worrisome but with 8 h and 7 h way underneath us have to think ageo has that needed overland passage for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Its less than 48 hours to the start of the storm here and I have no idea if ORH is getting 20 inches or 4 inches. Any unofficial euro predictions for fun? I'd guess it pretty much holds serve...maybe ticks up a tenth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any unofficial euro predictions for fun? I'd guess it pretty much holds serve...maybe ticks up a tenth. It will probably look like the Ukie or just a shade less amped...enough to to really string us along into thinking it is just one more bump away from the GFS/GEFS/SREF/NAM type solutions. In the end, it would be a moderate event for the interior hills and just advisory slop for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GGEM initialized on WSI finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Despite my petty worry over W. MA getting less snow vs potentially "epic" snowfall in Worcester County I can't help thinking about the coastal impacts in some of the more extreme modeling. NJ to CC has had a few years of bad beach erosion and despite astronomical tides being low this is not going to be good if the GFS comes to full fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No one in SNE should be unhappy if that comes to fruition. Not at all, especially considering 24 hours ago the consensus was we werent getting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS say bundle up for St. Patty's day...no bikinis and wife beaters this year. Anyways, back on topic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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