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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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You can tell how horribly part will bust already.. yesterday every model had snow starting by 4pm and already up to .5" qpf by 10pm.. even NAM still has me getting into some good stuff by 7pm on its 18z run.. i just dont see that happening.. there is no steady precip anywhere in sight, and its 430pm!

I'd be surprised if we have anything on the grass tomorow morning....

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Once again maps don't add up for UPTON.. map would yield a range of 6-8" for all of western ct, yet we are in an advisory for 3-6"???

Take the maps over the advisory, often they just issue one advisory for a big area, I've found that when they differ, the map is more accurate. The advisory might also only be for round one, while the map I beleive is storm total.

-skisheep

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BOX map goes down local mets go up. Mayhem, type of situation if they are wrong the people will be brutal.

They all must be buying the GFS 100% or are planning to see this shift way out to sea.

 

When Will says he'd be hitting SE MA hard, and there isn't a forecast over 2-4" at this point...

 

The interesting thing about the TV guys is they're not even talking much about rain.  I mean if they're thinking rain/snow...2" of rain is quite a bit..even 1".  Most of the forecasts are just light rain or whatever.

 

So, they must collectively think this misses.

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Upton has most of their 6" tomorrow night, only 1-3" tonight. Makes sense, although I think we verify towards the higher end of that 3-6".

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...
  SOUTHERN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF NEW YORK...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
  NEW JERSEY...NYC METRO AREA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
  LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES IS
  POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
  6 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX EARLY TONIGHT CHANGES TO ALL SNOW LATER
  TONIGHT. MODERATE SNOW MAY FALL AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO DIFFICULT
  TRAVELING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
  FRIDAY. THE HEAVY...WET SNOW...COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS COULD
  LEAD TO DOWNED TREE BRANCHES...AND POWER LINES AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

 

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They all must be buying the GFS 100% or are planning to see this shift way out to sea.

 

When Will says he'd be hitting SE MA hard, and there isn't a forecast over 2-4" at this point...

 

The interesting thing about the TV guys is they're not even talking much about rain.  I mean if they're thinking rain/snow...2" of rain is quite a bit..even 1".  Most of the forecasts are just light rain or whatever.

 

So, they must collectively think this misses.

 

That was my thought.  You'd think they would hedge their bets. Its the type of situation where hey you might wake up to 2-4 type deal and thats ok,  but even if there is a chance of double or tripling that your out of your mind going from 8-10 to 2-4 so quickly.

 

Should have been a mid afternoon update or at least opened the door for a change a little later on.  AFD reads like a snowstorm not a  meh event to me.

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