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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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If DC/BWI had little to no snow,  surely the Euro missed that,  right?    At least I remember it had at least some heavy accumulation there run after run.  IF that's the "most correct" model, there may be some more trouble, somewhere.

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18z hi res is a hoot, who knows at this point guys, really hard not to trust the Euro

i think its very hard to TRUST any model in this set up steve. Gfs has actually led the way on this one wrt to trends. I DON'T trust it going fwd. But this set up screams now cast and bust at same time.

 

if i could pick a town it would be foster, ri for 6 inches. i said this at 11 am and i'll say it again. Diamond hill would be number 1 but nobody really lives at 500' on the hill so lol.

 

tommorrow noon and on is the real deal , so well see

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Man.. what's up with that? Isnt that east of the valley? Why does that show you getting shadowed more than me? Dont really understand that qpf distro.

That's interesting that it shadows CT so much and no shadowing in the Hudson Valley. Looks almost like a blocked flow or something...will there be an inversion somewhere in the low levels? That could actually cause the upslope enhancement to back up into valley areas east of the hills, while "blocking" precip in the western aspects of the hills.

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yet there's a warning in NL County with less snow than Fairfield county where there's an advisory (which starts in 2 hrs-when there will be nothing frozen at all) what a mess...

They will probably either downgrade New London to an advisory(likely scenario), or upgrade us to a warning(very unlikely scenario, confidence for 8" has got to be 30% max in my mind, and I'm way more bullish than Upton)

 

 

 

Upton basically held serve at 6" for here, sharp cutback east though and not really sure why...

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

-skisheep

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scary thing is the NAM was too cold down south.  It would really blow if we got 2.5" of rain.

 

 

That down S thing smacks as a transition season headache.  In that part of the MA, the sun angle is substantially higher enough that even through a clouded sky there is some assault on a marginal llv thickness layout... If there are still rotating elements in after dark, more snow makes a showing. 

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I have no clue what will happen. You almost have to go with climo and gut. Models will be totally off with thermal fields if they are off with the precip. Oye Vey.

 

I think climo says BOS gets screwed in a "just too warm to really get in on the good stuff" way possibly out to 95.

 

Or you could invest in the Euro's 2m "wall of cold" which says Quincy-westward holds the line.

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LMAO (messenger learn'd it couldn't snow in march on ne winds)

 

i like the look of 850's and 925's over the area now i hope this source is available for us 24 hrs from now

 

i wonder how many analogs there are for warning snows with ML tracks with this one and the fire hose...rare beast....fun now cast it will be.

 

cat paws mixed in at 38 says it's plenty cold aloft to snow....but BL temps in Dc under heavy rates show'd snow at 34.5 -35 degrees doesn't accumulate at all

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I think climo says BOS gets screwed in a "just too warm to really get in on the good stuff" way possibly out to 95.

 

Or you could invest in the Euro's 2m "wall of cold" which says Quincy-westward holds the line.

 

I'm warming the thermal on the euro a tad and it would be "OK" if we can get into the meat of the good stuff. A reason why I'm not bullish here specifically.

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If DC/BWI had little to no snow,  surely the Euro missed that,  right?    At least I remember it had at least some heavy accumulation there run after run.  IF that's the "most correct" model, there may be some more trouble, somewhere.

 

 

Euro 2m temps were actually kind of warm down there...though no model had that bad of a solution as to what occurred today. I did find it weird when I saw the last coupel runs of the Euro and DC/BWI had temps around 36-37F...usually the Euro will try to make it more like 34F in those wet snow bombs.

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The NAM and GFS might need the Old Yeller treatment after this storm...NAM for its thermal profiles and GFS for its all around suckage and massive flip flops.

 

Can't disagree.  On the other hand, Euro was too cold last week and we didn't record measurable while half hour drive got 6-10".

 

I think the NWS and Mitch both got it right for this area.  Drawn out UL enhancement is not exactly gold for us and sitting at 39/32 it doesn't feel too encouraging.  Barring something weird like that convective e-w moving warm front the nam showed the other day it's hard to be bullish but at least with such a crazy Greenland HP and that big block maybe we have some outs.

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yet there's a warning in NL County with less snow than Fairfield county where there's an advisory (which starts in 2 hrs-when there will be nothing frozen at all) what a mess...

Ive been complaining about those maps since last night.. too inconsistent with the warning/advisories.. just drop the numbers on the map and keep everyone at advisory, only 3 counties in northeast under a warning and its those 3.. 

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