Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sitting in hospital at Vail CO, dislocated shoulder skiing yesterday, but glued to analysis here. You guys rock. Flight back to Logan tnite so will take part in this rare Fujiwara trowal firehouse bizzaro setup for better or worse.Dude. That sucks, Hope you heal quickly, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Any love at all for folks beyond PSM?? I assume that it's still a brutal cutoff. It was a little better up here then 0z, Maybe close to .50" or so, I don't have exact numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That might actually be better, if we can get .7" tomorrow night we should get advisory criteria at least... Its a sharp cutoff the further west you go, nyc was .25 maybe? Perhaps .4 for you maybe a bit more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm strictly speaking for BOS with my thoughts, not the Cape or ORH. I don't like this for hefty amounts here. We are going to have to rip pretty good in order to stick tomorrow and I'm not sure we can until later. It may be like a 34F 1-2Sm snow that does nothing. Even then, we are on the edge tomorrow night...and I just don't have a good feeling here. I could see Bob beating Ray actually because he is closer to the better dynamics...same for much of SE MA away from the water. There is a lot that needs to go right, and I just don't see all of that happening at the moment. Maybe I'll be wrong and BOS gets 12"+, but I don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upon closer examination of the EURO, it seems like it's off in the beginning of the run? It looks more SE than where the low actually is right now. Is it just me, or is it off? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 winds are very very impressive down in MD/DE/SNJ looks like a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm strictly speaking for BOS with my thoughts, not the Cape or ORH. I don't like this for hefty amounts here. We are going to have to rip pretty good in order to stick tomorrow and I'm not sure we can until later. It may be like a 34F 1-2Sm snow that does nothing. Even then, we are on the edge tomorrow night...and I just don't have a good feeling here. I could see Bob beating Ray actually because he is closer to the better dynamics...same for much of SE MA away from the water. There is a lot that needs to go right, and I just don't see all of that happening at the moment. Maybe I'll be wrong and BOS gets 12"+, but I don't see that. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Weenie wunder snow maps (which are bs but fun to look at) give us 12+ along coastal EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its a sharp cutoff the further west you go, nyc was .25 maybe? Perhaps .4 for you maybe a bit more? Jesus christ that sharp? yikes, it was about .8" here at 0z, that's really bad... Hope it's wrong, but I don't think it is. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upon closer examination of the EURO, it seems like it's off in the beginning of the run? It looks more SE than where the low actually is right now. Is it just me, or is it off? -skisheep I haven't looked but this will still come down to the wire. Blend everything even give a little to the GFS/UK as this is such an odd evolution. But aside of the NAM temp profiles it's all a very good hit just back from the water. Logan may not hammer it, but Jerry probably does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Weenie wunder snow maps (which are bs but fun to look at) give us 12+ along coastal EMA. Do you have a link - or a method to get to these? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I see what the euro is doing. The second s/w totally allows for the heavy precip to linger. But 20 miles east and it's a car topper. Maybe it comes more west tonight, but it looks precarious. However, I don't buy the ch 7 maps showing nothing either. I;m talking bigger amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 OT but damned cold after the brief warmup with the cutter next week. Mid/late March cold is relatively worthless to me unless we get 8+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Weenie wunder snow maps (which are bs but fun to look at) give us 12+ along coastal EMA. If I take those maps verbatim, working with the bottom figure and the top figure for each scale roughly it's 14-23" here and over a lot of EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If you buy the Euro QPF output, the heavy QPF for 24-30 hours is primarily east of I-495. It is very localized, with a huge cutoff to the west. And that same area has a very marginal temp profile, especially if you blend in the warmer guidance. That obviously spells huge bust potential. It could mean a home run or a total strikeout. There should be an overlapping area that gets absolutely pasted. But surface charts, soundings, and climatology suggests you'd want to be at least 10 miles west of the Ocean and 400ft or higher. Further west the inverted trof enhanced precip is a wild card... and still more than a day away. It could dump or fizzle... so difficult to predict convergence and lift. And I think bl temps could still be a problem in the low elevations. Like others have said I like the Catskills with that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I see what the euro is doing. The second s/w totally allows for the heavy precip to linger. But 20 miles east and it's a car topper. Maybe it comes more west tonight, but it looks precarious. However, I don't buy the ch 7 maps showing nothing either. I;m talking bigger amounts. The GGEM/RGEM/NAM/NMM/ARW/JMA all do the same thing in somewhat similar ways. AT 500mb things have shifted each run, but the net net is similar. Firehose into EMA. Of course if they are ALL wrong and the ULL ends up 100 miles east all models will bust including the stupid GFS. But...when every model that you guys normally trust and adhere too is a major hit, it's becoming more and more unbelievable to me that places like Channel 7 are forecasting rain. This could still colossally bust, but I do not believe anyone can look at this right now and say "Ahhhh..there's the gremln..this baby is a miss all 5 models are wrong" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm strictly speaking for BOS with my thoughts, not the Cape or ORH. I don't like this for hefty amounts here. We are going to have to rip pretty good in order to stick tomorrow and I'm not sure we can until later. It may be like a 34F 1-2Sm snow that does nothing. Even then, we are on the edge tomorrow night...and I just don't have a good feeling here. I could see Bob beating Ray actually because he is closer to the better dynamics...same for much of SE MA away from the water. There is a lot that needs to go right, and I just don't see all of that happening at the moment. Maybe I'll be wrong and BOS gets 12"+, but I don't see that. I totally agree with this. Maybe you are suffering from a little IMBY pessimism, but I see a lot of negatives with this for BOS. At least this has a high ceiling, which makes it more fun to peak at the radar and satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I haven't looked but this will still come down to the wire. Blend everything even give a little to the GFS/UK as this is such an odd evolution. But aside of the NAM temp profiles it's all a very good hit just back from the water. Logan may not hammer it, but Jerry probably does. Yeah, for you guys it's all good, most on this forum should get a nice hit. The disparity is much more extreme back here, where most everything but the EURO has .75"+, and everything but EURO and GFS 1"+, and everything but EURO .5"+ for tonight(GFS right on the line), while the EURO is a flaky .4" for tomorrow and nothing tonight. That's why I'm skeptical of it, but I really dislike going against it. Right now, after the EURO, still going 1-3' here tonight, and another 3-5" tomorrow night. NYC forum thinks the EURO is out to lunch with how it handles it over NJ and further SE, it looks totally wrong to them, although quite a bit of the "analysis" in there is worthless... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If I take those maps verbatim, working with the bottom figure and the top figure for each scale roughly it's 14-23" here and over a lot of EMA. I think the algorhithm uses a 10:1 ratio, which will likely prove generous with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think the algorhithm uses a 10:1 ratio, which will likely prove generous with this storm. What was more surprising is that it was snow at all. Almost every time this winter when I looked at it in marginal situations it said 0 here due to rain. 1 other thing I've noticed lately. The 12z Euro runs seem to be the most generous with QPF. I no longer think it's a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What's the outlook here? The NWS has no advisory at all for Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think Foxborough could get smoked...back into Accordian Champion's BY in N RI. BOS def has more Scooter cuation flags, but I'd be hitting it hard for interior SE MA...esp areas that have elevation like Foxborough. NW RI could do very well also...they are a pretty good upslope spot on easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Blending the 12z GEFS and the 12z EURO I figure about 1.5 to 1.8" of QPF for KTAN and here. Like NOAA I think 8" is a good safe bottom bet for Bob and that whole area but with 15-18" being a reasonable high end. * Providing the NAM which is totally unsupported is wrong. Just outside of Boston more like 1.2 to 1.5", away from the shore again NOAA is very reasonable, but there is no doubt now an increased upside. For me, low ratio high risk snow. It'll either be 10-12+ inches of cement or mostly moosh. Those amounts rightfully should be higher. But, I think its' still precarious enough that the "what if" has to be thrown in...somehow Ray will get dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its a sharp cutoff the further west you go, nyc was .25 maybe? Perhaps .4 for you maybe a bit more? Are you sure? NYC forum says .32" on the EURO through 7AM tomorrow and another .4" after that, total is about .75" for the two events, and I would guess we are a bit higher out east. Is the cutoff with tonight so sharp that NYC gets .32 and we/I get nothing? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GGEM/RGEM/NAM/NMM/ARW/JMA all do the same thing in somewhat similar ways. AT 500mb things have shifted each run, but the net net is similar. Firehose into EMA. Of course if they are ALL wrong and the ULL ends up 100 miles east all models will bust including the stupid GFS. But...when every model that you guys normally trust and adhere too is a major hit, it's becoming more and more unbelievable to me that places like Channel 7 are forecasting rain. This could still colossally bust, but I do not believe anyone can look at this right now and say "Ahhhh..there's the gremln..this baby is a miss all 5 models are wrong" How far west does it get? Do Nw RI and NE CT get into the action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think Foxborough could get smoked...back into Accordian Champion's BY in N RI. BOS def has more Scooter cuation flags, but I'd be hitting it hard for interior SE MA...esp areas that have elevation like Foxborough. NW RI could do very well also...they are a pretty good upslope spot on easterly flow. I agree. I like that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think Foxborough could get smoked...back into Accordian Champion's BY in N RI. BOS def has more Scooter cuation flags, but I'd be hitting it hard for interior SE MA...esp areas that have elevation like Foxborough. NW RI could do very well also...they are a pretty good upslope spot on easterly flow. Yeah, Easton, Foxboro, Sharon, Stoughton, Brockton, North Attleboro, Mansfield, that whole area is going to get smoked. Tree snapping heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What's the outlook here? The NWS has no advisory at all for Tolland. You probably will get an advisory with the 4PM package, 4-6" maybe you get lucky and get 8" is probably a reasonable bet for Tolland. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think Foxborough could get smoked...back into Accordian Champion's BY in N RI. BOS def has more Scooter cuation flags, but I'd be hitting it hard for interior SE MA...esp areas that have elevation like Foxborough. NW RI could do very well also...they are a pretty good upslope spot on easterly flow.Imby question. Why wouldn't the hills in NE Ct do well on easterly upslope? They're higher than NW Ri by several hundred feet at least. I understand on a NE flow but on an east flow why wouldn't our hills also do the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think Foxborough could get smoked...back into Accordian Champion's BY in N RI. BOS def has more Scooter cuation flags, but I'd be hitting it hard for interior SE MA...esp areas that have elevation like Foxborough. NW RI could do very well also...they are a pretty good upslope spot on easterly flow. I agree with NW RI. When you say, "smoked", what totals are you thinking? I forecasted up to 7" for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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