Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS phases BTW. This is new. Result is a norlun, but it is a new concept. Ding ding ding... I'm trying to get people to f read! jesus - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not really. But it sounds like people don't get that a slight shift se means a lot of liquid potentially which was the worry. Just a concern I have. Well yeah, 0.04 per hour stuff won't get it done in BOS. They'll need moderate precip or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not really. But it sounds like people don't get that a slight shift se means a lot of liquid potentially which was the worry. Just a concern I have. You concern is very warranted IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It has to be. It's not February with -25 sitting north of us. I'm ok with that. As long as you understand a small shift se leaves us with a lot of rasn then cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ding ding ding... I'm trying to get people to f read! jesus - Ggem had that last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know one thing.....we're not smoking cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Scooter flags at full staff I'm just speaking for this area. The stakes are high. Not trying to be a Debbie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 As long as you understand a small shift se leaves us with a lot of rasn then cool. Hey...if we get a few to several heavy wet inches and then rs/sn for a while - at least it will be wintery. I'm fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 As long as you understand a small shift se leaves us with a lot of rasn then cool. Yeah ths is the limit....maybe room for another 25- 50 miles but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If a 12z Euro or 12z GGEM solution verifies, then very little snow falls (prob less than 4") on the coastal plain...and probably not even more than 6" even here...so a shift SE to something like that would deifnitely be far different than NCEP guidance. Ukie is kind of stuck in between and wouldn't be great, but probably not as stingy as the the previous two mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ggem had that last run. No it did not - the point is "obtrusive". The GFS had it too, just not as intense, and not pushing SE. That was the point. The GGEM missed because it was more progressive, longitude-wise. Different reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know one thing.....we're not smoking cirrus High impact long duration event inbound. Coastal flooding, wind damage, power outages, potential heavy wet snow and driving rains. Nasty event. Could shut Tolland down until Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 High impact long duration event inbound. Coastal flooding, wind damage, power outages, potential heavy wet snow and driving rains. Nasty event. Could shut Tolland down until Easter. So that means they might get 6" of paste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah agreed. For all the issues with the gfs at least it's mostly predictable at this point in this winter. The NAM is still our Gary Busey but at least it's whacked out enough usually that we know we can toss. Long as the ggem and euro stay in the area, hopefully with upticks to both I think we are in good shape. Shame it's not a little colder, this could be quite memorable for some of you with this inflow and duration I thought crazy Uncle was our Garey Busey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So that means they might get 6" of paste? That would flatten most homes in Tolland. Building codes ftl.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 is nogaps out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm just speaking for this area. The stakes are high. Not trying to be a Debbie. lol, Was instilling some humor, It will be tough for the coastal areas if the rates suck, My concerns are much different, I am not sold on this system getting this far north, I have been sitting back reserved for up here, So i would be flying your flags for different reasons................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 is nogaps out yet. Or JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Or JMA c'mon now. i just wanna see the trends w nogaps. i know its notoriously SE of other guidance but i thought it had some usefullness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 While we're waiting for other models to make their presence known, Craig Allen is a meteorologist in NYC... He just made a terrific post on facebook.... This might help put things into context: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10151476811252720&id=230609267719 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2013/post-1615-0-99372200-1362455879.png GFS snow maps at 66 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0Z nogaps is a disaster, you don't want to see that. It's a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No it did not - the point is "obtrusive". The GFS had it too, just not as intense, and not pushing SE. That was the point. The GGEM missed because it was more progressive, longitude-wise. Different reason. Tip, Now that its driving it SE, the gfs may want to try to phase that feature in earlier on subsequent runs. If it is a "trend", it could trend for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Canadians must be hitting the Labatt hard tonight...late on the RGEM and GGEM still hasn't gotten to 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If I remember correctly is the nogaps rule that whatever it shows is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0Z nogaps is a disaster, you don't want to see that. It's a scraper couldn't interpret if you were joking but that would be a huge improvement from 12z. 12z didn't even get main precip shield into ACY. lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If I remember correctly is the nogaps rule that whatever it shows is wrong? If it keeps coming NW then its usually a red flag for SE solutions...its a big hit for SNE on the 00z run...its a scraper for CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If I remember correctly is the nogaps rule that whatever it shows is wrong? It is a somewhat reasonable solution, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If it keeps coming NW then its usually a red flag for SE solutions...its a big hit for SNE on the 00z run...its a scraper for CNE. So that would hint that other guidance (pretty much most importantly euro) will continue to head NW yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Canadians must be hitting the Labatt hard tonight...late on the RGEM and GGEM still hasn't gotten to 12 hours. LOL! And Will - ALL The TV Mets from RI to MA (haven't really checked CT) keep saying Easterly Flow = Mostly Rain, don't get hopes up. It Goona Rain - While I haven't heard any big Mets like you worrying about it on here, and everyone is basically pretty happy with a potential Blockbuster storm for me and anyone N and NE. TV Mets vs. My Blogger friends again! It's obviously ALL of their own Personal Models that they have in studio are VERY Warm. You see them on the forecast and they have big rain. But who knows what they are made of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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