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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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I think it has to be ignored. The storm is too far away. It's too warm out. High sun angle, the ocean has salt in it, solar flares, sequestration in DC,,,, all these things say we should forget about the ggem euro and nam and go with a navgem, ngm combo

 

There's the messenger we know and love. LOL

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Yeah it's a cool setup. The TROWAL/LLJ just sort of sits in place but once the shortwave dives south and interacts we get enough lift to start taking advantage of the TROWAL in place and can lift it north. 

 

There appears to be an additional signal for some frictional convergence from BOS to EWB with NNE flow off the ocean helping lead to some additional lift. That, coupled with seeder-feeder, should produce a nice jackpot of snows inland from the coastal front in SE Mass. Will's area may have an additional jackpot area given a bit of upslope and colder temps with elevation.

 

Thanks for putting it in met terms.  I'm with Will on this one.  I'm bullish on the setup.  I honestly think the Euro and to a lesser extent Ukie/GGEM will have a better handle on the UL's with this over the GFS.  Not bashing the GFS but it's relegated to 4th in my book on the Globals.

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Really eager to see the Euro on Wunderground!  I bet it's relatively cold too.  Still gotta watch surface temps.  34F 2mi vis r/s if it's not dumping.  The low levels are spoiled warm throughout this whole event.  8:1 ratios... gonna need 2" liquid to get the really big totals.  But I'm starting to buy a few 12" totals... I want to see the Euro details first.

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Sitting in hospital at Vail CO, dislocated shoulder skiing yesterday, but glued to analysis here. You guys rock. Flight back to Logan tnite so will take part in this rare Fujiwara trowal firehouse bizzaro setup for better or worse.

Painful! Shoulder pain is underrated until you experience it. Hope you are feeling better.

We'll do a snow walk hopefully.

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So basically we went from serious snow late night tonight onward to have it delayed by 18 hours. Pretty much all the modeling is in that camp. Tough storm for the numericals!

And there were people shaking their pitchforks at the NWS offices for not hoisting watches or warnings at noon yesterday!

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Jerry it's really not delayed much, just does the fujiwhara. 

 

Even the GFS now agrees on this. 

 

If this fails it fails, but not forecasting a major snowstorm in Boston, ORH, PVD, Taunton and interior south shore along Rte 24 is irresponsible.

 

NOAA has been fine, that was plenty earlier.

 

The models are here to guide us, and they're all guiding us essentially to a really big hit.  If they're not going to issue forecasts now they might as run Al Roker from the Today show reruns until Saturday.

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Similar to 0z, maybe a tad weaker. How much of that is the coastal and how much the trough for here?

everything else, even the GFS, has close to .5" here tonight, guessing the EURO does not have that much?

-skisheep

I just saw a couple maps from sv, tonight is basically a no show, its 90% tomorrow night, easy to believe, reports now of sun i nnj and the south shore breaking out and the radar out of okx is as bad as its looked all day, the coastal is a miss for us.

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That's a noticable shift SE with the SLP track on the Euro... and with the initial precip shield as well.  The snow (or rain) keeps getting delayed for most people.  Hopefully delayed but not denied.  I don't know how anyone could be confident seeing the Euro shifting further and further offshore like this.  The mid-level low interaction makes me nervous.

 

But the end result is not too different than 0z last night.  GFS/Euro/GGEM blend has a small area of heavy snow and widespread light to mod snow.  I'm not convinced lower elevations away from the main action can effectively accumulate... but we'll see.

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I just saw a couple maps from sv, tonight is basically a no show, its 90% tomorrow night, easy to believe, reports now of sun i nnj and the south shore breaking out and the radar out of okx is as bad as its looked all day, the coastal is a miss for us.

That might actually be better, if we can get .7" tomorrow night we should get advisory criteria at least...

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