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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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bottom line is when ur told rates rates rates, and .2 qpf over 6 hrs wont get it done.....and you are not confident where hvy rates will set up, how can u be confident in hvy snow totals anywhere? u can't . This looks like nowcast IF euro doesn't go to the crapper SE. i mean i guess either way it will be nowcast and i'm thinking that second SW may turn out to gather more interest as the day goes on. Deep layer easterly flow and that second sw diving in on back side would probably mean good thinks for catskills...high elevations just SW of albany and E slope of berks

 

and WRT to gfs i think euro may tick sE but will in no may look like it wrt to precip field so far offshore....i'm just not confident in the conveyer belt till i see it set up on radar....i think E NY and W MA may get a more high confidence snowfall from deep easterly flow and that 2'nd sw (if it continues to be model'd well) as this system wears on later thursday

 

MQE is gonna be a fun place for this storm if they can get firehose. winds howling for about 48 hrs there

Not so confident of this owing to shadow/upslope effects and the SW may actually pass far enough west of ENY and WNE with the best dynamics. That said that short may actually have a convective element to the snow fall associated with it.  I think just focusing on the short and vort max advection at H500 alone also has a bit  of a trance/hynoptic-like effect that leads to salivation which in turn leads to "seeing" big snowfall totals that in reality JUST MIGHT NOT be there.

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