Wx4cast Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 bottom line is when ur told rates rates rates, and .2 qpf over 6 hrs wont get it done.....and you are not confident where hvy rates will set up, how can u be confident in hvy snow totals anywhere? u can't . This looks like nowcast IF euro doesn't go to the crapper SE. i mean i guess either way it will be nowcast and i'm thinking that second SW may turn out to gather more interest as the day goes on. Deep layer easterly flow and that second sw diving in on back side would probably mean good thinks for catskills...high elevations just SW of albany and E slope of berks and WRT to gfs i think euro may tick sE but will in no may look like it wrt to precip field so far offshore....i'm just not confident in the conveyer belt till i see it set up on radar....i think E NY and W MA may get a more high confidence snowfall from deep easterly flow and that 2'nd sw (if it continues to be model'd well) as this system wears on later thursday MQE is gonna be a fun place for this storm if they can get firehose. winds howling for about 48 hrs there Not so confident of this owing to shadow/upslope effects and the SW may actually pass far enough west of ENY and WNE with the best dynamics. That said that short may actually have a convective element to the snow fall associated with it. I think just focusing on the short and vort max advection at H500 alone also has a bit of a trance/hynoptic-like effect that leads to salivation which in turn leads to "seeing" big snowfall totals that in reality JUST MIGHT NOT be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Finally able to look at things via a laptop. This storm sucks to forecast. The fuji dance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The fuji dance may end up looking like the drunk white guy at a club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro is cutting back QPF for tonight. Sfc low may be a bit farther north but the lift and precip looks much more concentrated than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro looks a pube SE of 00z at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro going east again. GFS seems to be leading the parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Will already told you its similar to Ukmet and Euro????Everytime you get the least bit annoyed you respond with question marks????Fine....I just feel like this system wreaks of fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 uptons snowmap is really bullish http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Everytime you get the least bit annoyed you respond with question marks???? Fine....I just feel like this system weaks of fail. huh, it was ok for you to dog Dryslot yesterday when he downed it? Anyways good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro going east again. GFS seems to be leading the parade. I thought we were getting crushed with a firehose??????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Everytime you get the least bit annoyed you respond with question marks???? Fine....I just feel like this system wreaks of fail. Go with the snowiest model. Always works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now it tries to dump at hr 42. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow this run smokes BOS...its better than the 00z run for E MA because of the stronger CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 huh, it was ok for you to dog Dryslot yesterday when he downed it? Anyways good luck. I dogged him because he was complaining about getting left out so often this season, yet has over 80". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now it tries to dump at hr 42. WTF. or just go with the one that give you nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 this b**ch is mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now it tries to dump at hr 42. WTF. You guys really should let the models roll out, we have heart patients that read the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Go with the snowiest model. Always works. Bite me, Debbie, this run smokes the crap out of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I thought we were getting crushed with a firehose??????????? I give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow this run smokes BOS...its better than the 00z run for E MA because of the stronger CCB. I am amenable to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow this run smokes BOS...its better than the 00z run for E MA because of the stronger CCB. Almost waits to get the influence from the diving s/w out of W NY to increase lift and strengthen the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 or just go with the one that give you nothing. Or in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Better for all or only BOs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Bite me, Debbie, this run smokes the crap out of you Eh, I don't completely buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 well my friends...pickles, eduggs, channel 7, scooter...u guys can ride the gfs with leather chaps on. I will take the euro ggem nam combo, win or lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Better for all or only BOs? Looks like you won't get any appreciable accumulation until Thursday night on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 so what is the euro doing north, east, dryer? all of the above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Eh, I don't completely buy it. Of course not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Fujiwara that firehose northward...its a better version of the GGEM/Ukie. It really looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow this run smokes BOS...its better than the 00z run for E MA because of the stronger CCB. toss, go with GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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