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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

The GFS looks a tiny bit wetter for CT, RI, and SE MA with the initial batch (more in line with other guidance), but the 12z and 06z are almost identical IMO.  If you ran the GFS again right now with the latest data, I bet the differences with 12z would be larger than the difference between 06z and 12z.  Both runs are easily within the ensemble spread, which is relatively small.

 

It's looking increasingly likely that a fairly small area of SE MA has a shot at high QPF, with a glancing blow for everyone else.  And then as moisture interacts with the trailing s/w, there could be another round of precip.  I think that's where all guidance is headed, even the too wet NAM.

as model'd that is the trend...but i don't know if models will have a great handle on this....we obv want a Nw trend....but with deep e'rly flow ...i'm wondering how well the hills of NW ri and ORH hills near will may do with this set up. Tuff to see ORH less than 6

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

What model do you prefer?

The euro, nam, rgem, ggem, NMM, arw are all big hits. The gfs did get better too.

Models are probably overestimating the width of the firehose band. I bet it's more narrow and that will make the forecast really variable

I still like a 12z GFS/0z Euro/12z CMC compromise... with slightly less weight on the Euro until the new run comes out.  I would not use the QPF from the NAM or mesos.  A lot of these might be big QPF hits for your general area, but there is a bigger picture to look that suggests the high QPF is questionable and the entire structure might tick a little further SE.

 

It's not like I'm expecting a complete whiff.  I expect QPF totals of 1-2" in far SE areas (locally higher)... but I think it will be geographically confined and much of it rain/slop.  I think there will be a small area of overlap between high QPF and a sufficiently cold column (probably somewhere from NE CT, NRI, to interior SEMA) to produce snowfall totals in the range of about 8" - 14"

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

You guys aren't used to dealing with marginal temps.  That's the big thing.  Happens all the time here.

 

At this stage whatever the Euro shows i'd blend with the GGEM and GFS and run with it.

I see you feel the same way I do.  Blending is safest and in the long term verifies best.  But I'd love to hear an experienced met explain why they are taking a shot at a more couragous call.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

 

Yeah what gets lost in the discussion is that within 72 hours.... a 24 hour 18z forecast is always better than a 30 hour 12z forecast. Important for short range. For longer range forecasts it's not as true since the slightly worse initialization causes errors to grow in time.

 

Interesting about 6z runs being in general the worst since they get the least ACARS data. Makes sense.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I'm really surprised at this stage how many people are providing more significant weight to the GFS versus say the euro/euro ens and ggem.

Easily the most atrocious model this winter and for many winters inside of 48 hours. I know we are all throwing it into the mix because of caution self included but I'm surprised by how many people here today are still putting significant stock in a model that has proven to be significantly useless in almost every system this winter.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I see you feel the same way I do. Blending is safest and in the long term verifies best. But I'd love to hear an experienced met explain why they are taking a shot at a more couragous call.

Eduggs the only reason I'm in agreement is the other models seem too good to be true. Given gfs long term performance in this range there is no reason to be weighing it at all, jmho. But there is always the chance it's right and the stakes are high.

Normally I wouldn't even consider it vs the GGEM Euro combo with nam and meso rgem support. Group think has gotten me

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

Posted
Posted

I'm really surprised at this stage how many people are providing more significant weight to the GFS versus say the euro/euro ens and ggem.

Easily the most atrocious model this winter and for many winters inside of 48 hours. I know we are all throwing it into the mix because of caution self included but I'm surprised by how many people here today are still putting significant stock in a model that has proven to be significantly useless in almost every system this winter.

its mind-boggling

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

I'm really surprised at this stage how many people are providing more significant weight to the GFS versus say the euro/euro ens and ggem.

Easily the most atrocious model this winter and for many winters inside of 48 hours. I know we are all throwing it into the mix because of caution self included but I'm surprised by how many people here today are still putting significant stock in a model that has proven to be significantly useless in almost every system this winter.

Not for nothing, but the last couple days you were saying the same thing regarding the Euro, how it failed on you're scrapers?  I think being snow lovers we have  a tendency to bounce around and hug models that give us a best case scenario.

In the end I think all models have had a tough winter, weak enso signals, very progressive flow for the most part, and of course with this block models have a very difficult time especially with s/w in the mix.

 

Good luck to all.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I'm really surprised at this stage how many people are providing more significant weight to the GFS versus say the euro/euro ens and ggem.

Easily the most atrocious model this winter and for many winters inside of 48 hours. I know we are all throwing it into the mix because of caution self included but I'm surprised by how many people here today are still putting significant stock in a model that has proven to be significantly useless in almost every system this winter.

 

Well I think there's a pretty good consensus developing if you throw out the highly volatile solutions from the mesoscale models. 

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

bottom line is when ur told rates rates rates, and .2 qpf over 6 hrs wont get it done.....and you are not confident where hvy rates will set up, how can u be confident in hvy snow totals anywhere? u can't . This looks like nowcast IF euro doesn't go to the crapper SE. i mean i guess either way it will be nowcast and i'm thinking that second SW may turn out to gather more interest as the day goes on. Deep layer easterly flow and that second sw diving in on back side would probably mean good thinks for catskills...high elevations just SW of albany and E slope of berks

 

and WRT to gfs i think euro may tick sE but will in no may look like it wrt to precip field so far offshore....i'm just not confident in the conveyer belt till i see it set up on radar....i think E NY and W MA may get a more high confidence snowfall from deep easterly flow and that 2'nd sw (if it continues to be model'd well) as this system wears on later thursday

 

MQE is gonna be a fun place for this storm if they can get firehose. winds howling for about 48 hrs there

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted

we go from sun to sheets of light rain here kind of cool

Pretty cool out there right now with these showers moving through.  Sky is basically just spitting right now, but we have had 2 heavier showers move through in the last half hour.  And when those heavier showers move in big ol' fat flakes come down.  

 

Just thought it was cool is all.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

It seems that with the latest GFS and GGEM, we have agreement on round one at least for here*. Looks like about .5" for the first round, probably will end up as 2-4" when all's said and done. Round two is the intresting part, I think it's a real possibility that it could be 4-6" here, and become the main show for the storm...

 

*Discounting SREF's and assorted meso's(NM5 etc), based on RGEM/GFS/NAM/GGEM/EURO

-skisheep

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Not for nothing, but the last couple days you were saying the same thing regarding the Euro, how it failed on you're scrapers? I think being snow lovers we have a tendency to bounce around and hug models that give us a best case scenario.

In the end I think all models have had a tough winter, weak enso signals, very progressive flow for the most part, and of course with this block models have a very difficult time especially with s/w in the mix.

Good luck to all.

I said toss the gfs when it was at its peak for this storm and go with the euro because inside of 48 hours the euro crushed the gfs on the scrapers. The last one was a fail for both the gfs and euro but the nam got it.

The euro takes awhile to show up to the party but once it's there it's great. Many of you seem to have a hard time switching as needed from solutions. The euro isn't beat often inside of 36 hours.

I expect we see it come towards the rgem/ggem/nam. Ill be shocked if its weak sauce like the gfs.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

bottom line is when ur told rates rates rates, and .2 qpf over 6 hrs wont get it done.....and you are not confident where hvy rates will set up, how can u be confident in hvy snow totals anywhere? u can't . This looks like nowcast IF euro doesn't go to the crapper SE. i mean i guess either way it will be nowcast and i'm thinking that second SW may turn out to gather more interest as the day goes on. Deep layer easterly flow and that second sw diving in on back side would probably mean good thinks for catskills...high elevations just SW of albany and E slope of berks

and WRT to gfs i think euro may tick sE but will in no may look like it wrt to precip field so far offshore....i'm just not confident in the conveyer belt till i see it set up on radar....i think E NY and W MA may get a more high confidence snowfall from deep easterly flow and that 2'nd sw (if it continues to be model'd well) as this system wears on later thursday

There is an epic firehose already going on, snj into the Delmarva

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