March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

[NorEastermass128]

GFS looked pretty lousy.

 

Who cares? Wait until 1pm.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

-sn coming through Athol on Rt 2

[Zeus]

Who cares? Wait until 1pm.

 

Not really sure what to expect with the Euro, but my hunch is a tick SE with the good stuff, limiting the "good area" to N RI and interior SE MA for the most part, with an overall downtick in amounts from its 00z run.

 

But hey, if it holds serve, that'd be encouraging for my neck of the woods.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not really sure what to expect with the Euro, but my hunch is a tick SE with the good stuff, limiting the "good area" to N RI and interior SE MA for the most part, with an overall downtick in amounts from its 00z run.

 

But hey, if it holds serve, that'd be encouraging for my neck of the woods.

Agreed.

[Bostonseminole]

925mb temps look cold and my DP is dropping.. like Jerry said once rates pick up I think we snow if rates pick up

[Clinch Leatherwood]

So RPM has me over a foot while others have much less. Dewpoint depression actually occuring now so when rates increase we'll snow just fine. Dew at BOS down to 29. But...and this is entirely subjective...I've just not feeling this one and haven't really. Maybe I'm like many and like to see if cold to the north. That said, The dew depression is giving me second throughts. I don't think I'll have qpf problems..only temperature so we'll see.

 

You guys aren't used to dealing with marginal temps.  That's the big thing.  Happens all the time here.

 

At this stage whatever the Euro shows i'd blend with the GGEM and GFS and run with it.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm in trouble here, BL is just too marginal I think.  The jackpot will be just on the other side of the changeover.  Probably somewhere near Bob give or take 10-20 miles.   Off for a bit guys good luck.

[N. OF PIKE]

925mb temps look cold and my DP is dropping.. like Jerry said once rates pick up I think we snow if rates pick up

ya 850's and 925 really cool'd down since last nite....esp up in NE maine.

 

Houlton was like 33/28 at 1 am.  now at 11 am they are 35/23....not frigid but not rotten

 

lets get some fire hose .  euro rules the roost. on models the trend is a RI/SE mass special.....this may well end up being a now cast

 

I have no clue where euro may go

[Logan11]

Too bad for the DC people. I had no horse in their fight so was hoping they would do well.

 

This may not bode well for coastal plain people further north later on.  At the least...it may take awhile to get it over to decent snow. Tomorrow might be a long day until the sun angle goes down.

 

 

Cantore on MSNBC right now from DC.  It is raining and he said "we are running out of time here."  40 miles to the northwest, they are getting hit pretty hard.

 

Cantore looks bummed........................and wet.

[Typhoon Tip]

From what I can tell, the "storm" is going to completely miss...

 

The QPF currently painted among the various models is actually being generated for a different cause than any direct mechanics associated with the cyclone, which appears in most guidance to pass harmlessly way out there.  But because there is a small mid-level impulse lagging and catching up, it is prolonging a deep layer easterly flow into New England, which creates a moist conveyor for awhile, while the complex interaction aloft plays out.  But once that follow-up impulse clears the area, the whole bag of tricks then trundles seaward and the area rapidly improves after first having a couple of days of the "atmospheric schits"  

 

Really, goes to spring-like regime for a couple days like a light switch.  In fact, Sunday still appears to be the first top 10 day of the year, with 850mb temps soaring to +3C, with calm wind tending off-shore, and sunshine.  Despite guidance and snow pack I could see that making a run at 60F.   After this road, 60F and full sun and light winds really should put any winter enthusiasm to bed for the year.

 

Of course, then it turns wicked in the extended ... 

[Baroclinic Zone]

GGEM looks like a huge hit.  Anyone who can elaborate on the ****ty images?

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol 60 on Sunday

[CT Rain]

Yeah Bob it is. Was just going to post it. Looks really big for eastern areas and plenty of extra QPF for western areas with teh s/w diving in. 

[CT Rain]

Lol 60 on Sunday:lol:

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see 55 at BDL. 

[trat]

TWC 8-12  is that possible for the north shore?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah Bob it is. Was just going to post it. Looks really big for eastern areas and plenty of extra QPF for western areas with teh s/w diving in. 

Thanks Ryan.  Looks like a sick CCB

[eduggs]

Bombing lows can hook NW.  But we have a mature stacked low pressure center.   These tend to pull SE.  The occlusion process kills dynamics and we are left with a firehose, deformation, and meso convergence processes.  I wouldn't trust meso models in this scenario on QPF... they almost always overdo these features  There will be some sort of firehose, but we don't know how intense, localized, and long lasting it will be.  I think there has been too much focus on model QPF with this storm.  We have an occluded storm way SE over the Atlantic.  That could mean localized high QPF strung out around the broad circulation, but it also means warmth and high likelihood of failure.

[Logan11]

I'm not giving up totally on the early week system yet.  The block has suppressed most other systems lately.  Anyway we probably won't even get 50 here.

 

 

Lol 60 on Sunday

[Typhoon Tip]

Wouldn't be surprised to see 55 at BDL. 

 

Kevin's usually the last person to admit to a blatancy on the planet.  It'll be June 1 and he'll be trying argue "when it's over, it's over"

 

anywho, that day has super-adiabatic written all over it;  fancy 10C word for expanding the boundary layer thickness by diabatic force feeding.  Snow pack or not 

 

and if Keven actually understood Meteorology ... the means his toasted ass!

[N. OF PIKE]

Bombing lows can hook NW.  But we have a mature stacked low pressure center.   These tend to pull SE.  The occlusion process kills dynamics and we are left with a firehose, deformation, and meso convergence processes.  I wouldn't trust meso models in this scenario on QPF... they almost always overdo these features  There will be some sort of firehose, but we don't know how intense, localized, and long lasting it will be.  I think there has been too much focus on model QPF with this storm.  We have an occluded storm way SE over the Atlantic.  That could mean localized high QPF strung out around the broad circulation, but it also means warmth and high likelihood of failure.

agree

 

wing and a prayer and a firehose

 

i like RI elevations right now.  foster/ woonsocket/glocester/burriville

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Bombing lows can hook NW. But we have a mature stacked low pressure center. These tend to pull SE. The occlusion process kills dynamics and we are left with a firehose, deformation, and meso convergence processes. I wouldn't trust meso models in this scenario on QPF... they almost always overdo these features There will be some sort of firehose, but we don't know how intense, localized, and long lasting it will be. I think there has been too much focus on model QPF with this storm. We have an occluded storm way SE over the Atlantic. That could mean localized high QPF strung out around the broad circulation, but it also means warmth and high likelihood of failure.

What model do you prefer?

The euro, nam, rgem, ggem, NMM, arw are all big hits. The gfs did get better too.

Models are probably overestimating the width of the firehose band. I bet it's more narrow and that will make the forecast really variable

[N. OF PIKE]

What model do you prefer?

The euro, nam, rgem, ggem, NMM, arw are all big hits. The gfs did get better too.

Models are probably overestimating the width of the firehose band. I bet it's more narrow and that will make the forecast really variable

he prefers a model which shows a LP within 300 miles of the BM....and since there aren't any he's skeptical of an occluding low and meso scale processes to drive heavy snow totals. Not trying to come of harsh at all.....and yes the 500 mile fire hose will prob be narrow.  not sure wide spread warnings verify but who knows when that 2/nd s.w dives into the mix late in the game what happens

 

 

if i could pick one town that will verifity with over 6 inches i'm not sure where i'd go. 

 

maybe foster,RI

[Wx4cast]

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Bombing lows can hook NW.  But we have a mature stacked low pressure center.   These tend to pull SE.  The occlusion process kills dynamics and we are left with a firehose, deformation, and meso convergence processes.  I wouldn't trust meso models in this scenario on QPF... they almost always overdo these features  There will be some sort of firehose, but we don't know how intense, localized, and long lasting it will be.  I think there has been too much focus on model QPF with this storm.  We have an occluded storm way SE over the Atlantic.  That could mean localized high QPF strung out around the broad circulation, but it also means warmth and high likelihood of failure.

 

But your forgetting/ignoring the added energy from the s/w that comes out of the GL.

[Wx4cast]

FWIIW UK QPF

 

 

 

[weathafella]

LOL at CMC...feet of snow.....lololol

[CT Rain]

LOL at CMC...feet of snow.....lololol

 

It's the new and improved GGEM too! 

[weathafella]

Some big numbers getting racked up in the DC/BWI area AWAY and west of the cities. IAD probably had 6+ by now.

[eduggs]

GFS came quite a bit away from the ledge.  This is terrible news I know for those that were rooting for it to go east. 

 

Same firehose as the others.   Plenty cold.  Lots of snow.  

The GFS looks a tiny bit wetter for CT, RI, and SE MA with the initial batch (more in line with other guidance), but the 12z and 06z are almost identical IMO.  If you ran the GFS again right now with the latest data, I bet the differences with 12z would be larger than the difference between 06z and 12z.  Both runs are easily within the ensemble spread, which is relatively small.

 

It's looking increasingly likely that a fairly small area of SE MA has a shot at high QPF, with a glancing blow for everyone else.  And then as moisture interacts with the trailing s/w, there could be another round of precip.  I think that's where all guidance is headed, even the too wet NAM.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd ignore the GEM.