Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 some great snow photos in the mid-Atlantic forum-wet sloppy snow that sticks to everything-looks like DC east is getting screwed though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Don't laugh, well actually you will laugh. But the 12 z RPM has 36-48" across Bristol County. Lock that one up. Post an image for future generations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS came quite a bit away from the ledge. This is terrible news I know for those that were rooting for it to go east. Same firehose as the others. Plenty cold. Lots of snow. ya that's a fair point. (earlier you posted wrt to mixed r/sn at your locale now.....but accums with decent ratio's is another thing...could def happen...just it's not a Lock with marginal airmass..just saying to watch it as a caution flag. Esp if where on fringe of firehose. You do realize like 1/2 the SNE is seeing their QPF slip away on models in last 24 hrs right. Your area being fartherst SE is holding on...but for the most of us....it's lookin more and more dicey. Yes the shot is still their and models aren't gospel but the trend SE is not many in this forum's friend at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Cantore on MSNBC right now from DC. It is raining and he said "we are running out of time here." 40 miles to the northwest, they are getting hit pretty hard. Cantore looks bummed........................and wet. Check out the 15h 0z Euro, matches up pretty well with that and we'll have to watch the lowest layers here too. It's cold enough aloft, but the last several hundred feet are doing the deed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Look at the Euro, it never got the 2m temps all that cold down there until really after lunch. Not the same up here aside of the immediate coast. I've got a snow shower mixed with rain right now in this crap. Nevermind at night, and with actual dynamics on Thursday. my wife works at Jordan and she said it snowed for a few min there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ya that's a fair point. (earlier you posted wrt to mixed r/sn at your locale now.....but accums with decent ratio's is another thing...could def happen...just it's not a Lock with marginal airmass..just saying to watch it as a caution flag. Esp if where on fringe of firehose. You do realize like 1/2 the SNE is seeing their QPF slip away on models in last 24 hrs right. Your area being fartherst SE is holding on...but for the most of us....it's lookin more and more dicey. Yes the shot is still their and models aren't gospel but the trend SE is not many in this forum's friend at all. The RGEM is very wet, the NAM is very wet, the GFS is coming in wetter. I think both the RGEM and NAM, and likely the GFS increased QPF for most of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Don't laugh, well actually you will laugh. But the 12 z RPM has 36-48" across Bristol County.Funny....I recall Phil drawing comparisons to the Feb 1999 event in that the ULL was getting tugged back.Se MA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The RGEM is very wet, the NAM is very wet, the GFS is coming in wetter. I think both the RGEM and NAM, and likely the GFS increased QPF for most of you.Not this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Snowing pretty steadily here in Atkinson right now.. but 38F, so just melting on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 12Z RPM has 35" for Bob, 16" for Will, and 5" for Kevin lol. Highest forecast I've seen for SE mass is 6-12", and channel 7 has 100% rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 12Z RPM has 35" for Bob, 16" for Will, and 5" for Kevin lol. Highest forecast I've seen for SE mass is 6-12", and channel 7 has 100% rain... TWC is ripping and reading the RPM contours, and has 12-18" for ORH county to SE Mass. If they beat a local affiliate.. that will be embarrassing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It seems recent guidance is pulling the commahead a bit NW in the first 12 hours and then they all try to go back to what they had before after that first 12 hours. I'm interested to see how that evolves today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not this area. S of pike, E of CT. nam snow weenie map crushes me with zero 12z nam was def poorer wrt to qpf for most of area wrt 6z nam....bullseye ...braintree to E PVD E ward stays basically same. 12z gfs looks pretty awful as well. I don't want anybody getting upset as i'm just doing my own take on the models but they don't look good IMO. And i think BL issues for bob to just west of messenger....will lead to poor ratio's during the day thursday. i.e no 2 foot amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Uncle is a late bloomer...it really gets enhancement from that 2nd s/w coming in. It gets the firehose north into E MA, even up to Ray's area, but it takes a while and I think the 2nd s/w coming in helps pinwheel it north and also adds some synoptic upper level divergence to aid everything. What a fooked up system and a nightmare forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm with you. This is the first time I've really had time to look at the models and this looks like garbage, up this way at least. Maybe .5'' of QPF strung out over 30 hours in March. This will amount to wet roads and parking lots with slop on the side and I think that's about it. This has always been a non-event for northern areas. With all the modeling fluctuations over the past few days, the one constant has been a sharp northern cutoff near the NH border. Don't waste any time or angst over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm just going to expect very little, and hope for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 clustering Lincoln RI ORH is 13, ORD is 15 PYM is 12 IJD is 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Unless the EURO follows suite, I wouldn't lend much credence to the UK.......pretty good conscensus to focus the hose over se MA, while hosing the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 When will mentions a nightmare to forecast, no one can really have much confidence in the evolution of this frankenstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Uncle is a late bloomer...it really gets enhancement from that 2nd s/w coming in. It gets the firehose north into E MA, even up to Ray's area, but it takes a while and I think the 2nd s/w coming in helps pinwheel it north and also adds some synoptic upper level divergence to aid everything. What a fooked up system and a nightmare forecast. Nice snow burst here right now. I think I'm hosed literally. I'm only expecting a slushy mess. West of about west Wareham should do well and especially between there and Bob. Up by you guys BTH out of me. Like you said nightmare storm, nightmare forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm just going to expect very little, and hope for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Uncle is a late bloomer...it really gets enhancement from that 2nd s/w coming in. It gets the firehose north into E MA, even up to Ray's area, but it takes a while and I think the 2nd s/w coming in helps pinwheel it north and also adds some synoptic upper level divergence to aid everything. What a fooked up system and a nightmare forecast. (This is probably mostly me wishing here lol) but hasn't it been one of the more SE pieces of guidance over the last day? It trying to get some of the better moisture into more northern parts of MA could be a good sign could it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Unless the EURO follows suite, I wouldn't lend much credence to the UK.......pretty good conscensus to focus the hose over se MA, while hosing the rest of us. Its still focused over SE MA, it just lifts it north eventually...most guidance actually does this to some extent otherwise you would get 0.10" of qpf. Ukie seems a bit more enhanced with the aid of the 2nd s/w diving in. Expect 1" there and then you will not suffer storm depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm just going to expect very little, and hope for more. same here.. will just watch what evolves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's all about that second S/w. tonight deal is only 1-3 by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So RPM has me over a foot while others have much less. Dewpoint depression actually occuring now so when rates increase we'll snow just fine. Dew at BOS down to 29. But...and this is entirely subjective...I've just not feeling this one and haven't really. Maybe I'm like many and like to see if cold to the north. That said, The dew depression is giving me second throughts. I don't think I'll have qpf problems..only temperature so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's all about that second S/w. tonight deal is only 1-3 by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So RPM has me over a foot while others have much less. Dewpoint depression actually occuring now so when rates increase we'll snow just fine. Dew at BOS down to 29. But...and this is entirely subjective...I've just not feeling this one and haven't really. Maybe I'm like many and like to see if cold to the north. That said, The dew depression is giving me second throughts. I don't think I'll have qpf problems..only temperature so we'll see. Pretty cold temps in the 925mb range are being advected in from the NE...even out over Georges Bank has colder 925mb temps than we do right now. Its one of the reasons the profiles cool quickly as the storm gets going. Even right now the 925mb temps are in the -3C range which is actually helping produce some of these convective precip cells...steep low level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS looked pretty lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS looked pretty lousy. The weird thing is, it's close now to the same solutions it was showing on Sunday for this event. The low slipping offshore with the bulk of precip sort of shunted off south of about Philly's lat, and then doing a weird jog and slapping back into E SNE. At least that's what I remember it looking like a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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