March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

[ORH_wxman]

Its admittedly a very hard forecast here...still have visions of 2/10/10 in my head. But this one has differences that I think will favor a better outcome. It may be the agnozing storm in terms of waiting for development. But I do think eventually it will deliever...the 2nd s/w coming in aids in the process.

[Ginx snewx]

Its admittedly a very hard forecast here...still have visions of 2/10/10 in my head. But this one has differences that I think will favor a better outcome. It may be the agnozing storm in terms of waiting for development. But I do think eventually it will deliever...the 2nd s/w coming in aids in the process.

Yea but the long and slow is always a good thing. Upslope for you alone should be perfect.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Its admittedly a very hard forecast here...still have visions of 2/10/10 in my head. But this one has differences that I think will favor a better outcome. It may be the agnozing storm in terms of waiting for development. But I do think eventually it will deliever...the 2nd s/w coming in aids in the process.

 

Savage forecast for interior SE MA.  4km NAM is a brutal hit.  Reiner is absolutely insistent of literally 0 snow in Boston and east of about Highway 24.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think 3-6 should be good for much if CT. With the hills in the 6-10 range. That inv trough signal is strong tomorrow night too

[SR Airglow]

NAM still delivers the goods here, just shifts them to the trough, which I think is going to be a bigger deal here than the coastal. I'm right on the .5" line for the coastal through tomorrow morning, and then get close to another inch from the trough. NAM still pulls out a warning event here, just in a different fashion.

Going 2-5" for the coastal and 3-6" for the trough, all guidance is trying to make that a bigger deal, even the EURO had close to .6" here in QPF from it all snow.

-skisheep

[CT Rain]

I think 3-6 should be good for much if CT. With the hills in the 6-10 range. That inv trough signal is strong tomorrow night too

 

I'm fine with our forecast from last night of 3-6. the 6+ is obviously more in the air but I actually think Ginx's area has the best shot. 

[OSUmetstud]

pete will manage 30"

[CT Rain]

I think 3-6 should be good for much if CT. With the hills in the 6-10 range. That inv trough signal is strong tomorrow night too

 

TBH I'm most concerned about our area. Looks like you and I will miss out from the brunt of the "fire hose" and we'll probably be too far east for the better inverted trough stuff. 

[DomNH]

Seems like if we're out of the best dynamics up here it'll just be a day of light - moderate gloppy snow that won't stick anywhere except the grass and on top of the old snowpack. Maybe 3-5''? Doubtful it makes much of an impact.

[Bryan]

Idk, it's just my uneducated opinion, but this whole thing just feels like a dud, seemed to have underperformed in Indy, now based on the OBS forum in DC it is doing the same there...just not feeling it. Seems like every model output is hinting on that but we're all just grasping for the positives. But, like I said, that's just one mans uneducated opinion.

[Damage In Tolland]

TBH I'm most concerned about our area. Looks like you and I will miss out from the brunt of the "fire hose" and we'll probably be too far east for the better inverted trough stuff.

Those inv troughs are fickle and seem like they end up east of where models have them. I think where I am I may be able to catch the western part of the hose snow. I think i ll manage 6-8 inches . But admittedly not a high confidence forecast

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Idk, it's just my uneducated opinion, but this whole thing just feels like a dud, seemed to have underperformed in Indy, now based on the OBS forum in DC it is doing the same there...just not feeling it. Seems like every model output is hinting on that but we're all just grasping for the positives. But, like I said, that's just one mans uneducated opinion.

 

JMHO the Euro danced around DC pretty well last run.  That said the RGEM is SE of the last run, looks like the NAM

[CT Rain]

Those inv troughs are fickle and seem like they end up east of where models have them. I think where I am I may be able to catch the western part of the hose snow. I think i ll manage 6-8 inches . But admittedly not a high confidence forecast

 

This was one of those weird forecasts where I hedged higher than what my gut was telling me after model run and model run (with ensemble support) of crazy 2"+ QPF totals in eastern CT and 1-1.5" in southern CT. Was really thinking more along the lines of 2-4 and 4-6 but skewed the next category up. 

 

Either way it's going to be a boring storm to watch come together. Strung out over 2 days with light rates. I'd rather it not even snow so I'd have Thursday off from work. 

[CT Rain]

Big bust in DCA. Not sure if they'll be able to get 2" in the city!

[Baroclinic Zone]

JMHO the Euro danced around DC pretty well last run.  That said the RGEM is SE of the last run, looks like the NAM

Still manages to clip us(SE MA) pretty good though.

 

 

[Brian5671]

Big bust in DCA. Not sure if they'll be able to get 2" in the city!

could see that coming this morning based on radar....and no cold air and mid day storm-forget it....

[ORH_wxman]

The firehose signal in SE MA is pretty good right now...I don't think its going to miss them...it makes me feel a bit better about here.We'll need to end up on the northern fringe of it for good snows, but with the current guidance, we should. What an ugly forecast.

 

 

I could honestly see us getting 4" of slop or 14"...this is not too dissimilar to how I felt before the inverted trough event on Feb 23-24. The modeling was getting ugly late in the game, but my gut said stay fairly high with the easterly flow for the hills here...it ended up working out. Different type of storm, but the easterly flow is similar, and I think a late s/w diving in to help enhance it (even if the best is in NY State) is also similar in that regard.

 

My gut is telling me not to get overly bearish here (like 2-5")...so I'm staying pretty bullish. Of course the 12z Euro will come in and give me 0.42" of qpf strung out over 40 hours now that I say this.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The firehose signal in SE MA is pretty good right now...I don't think its going to miss them...it makes me feel a bit better about here.We'll need to end up on the northern fringe of it for good snows, but with the current guidance, we should. What an ugly forecast.

 

 

I could honestly see us getting 4" of slop or 14"...this is not too dissimilar to how I felt before the inverted trough event on Feb 23-24. The modeling was getting ugly late in the game, but my gut said stay fairly high with the easterly flow for the hills here...it ended up working out. Different type of storm, but the easterly flow is similar, and I think a late s/w diving in to help enhance it (even if the best is in NY State) is also similar in that regard.

 

My gut is telling me not to get overly bearish here (like 2-5")...so I'm staying pretty bullish. Of course the 12z Euro will come in and give me 0.42" of qpf strung out over 40 hours now that I say this.

 

12z GFS coming back in line.  RGEM dumps SE MA hard.

 

I don't worry too much about DCA.  The Euro clown algo was not heavy for them last night and the euro was warm at the surface for them, FWIW.

[Damage In Tolland]

This was one of those weird forecasts where I hedged higher than what my gut was telling me after model run and model run (with ensemble support) of crazy 2"+ QPF totals in eastern CT and 1-1.5" in southern CT. Was really thinking more along the lines of 2-4 and 4-6 but skewed the next category up.

Either way it's going to be a boring storm to watch come together. Strung out over 2 days with light rates. I'd rather it not even snow so I'd have Thursday off from work.

That ULL over Ny state is going to help us in Ct I think. This whole setup is so convoluted. I don't think anyone can feel very confident in a snowfall forecast for this one. As Gibbs put it. It's like Swiss cheese

[40/70 Benchmark]

This event blows....and I'm not referring to the easterly winds.

[N. OF PIKE]

Big bust in DCA. Not sure if they'll be able to get 2" in the city!

i've been thinking BL issues since last nite when i pull'd up SPC and it was midnite and 34/32 in bangor,maine 35/29 in ORH and then hmmm dc is gonna get pounded/"rates will be insane"  ya big bust potential big big.

 

Temps are obv. better up here, esp as wind turn more NNE but ...i'm thinkin poor ratio's 34 F glop/slop for bob's area where the firehose seems to have best potential... and  i best accums will be AOA 500 if best stuff even really ends up hammering those areas.  I like N RI 400+ over to say Wrenthem or so w the caveat that areas in W ma and ORH hills could get slamm'd as well but confidence is low. i see alot of poor ratio's  for 1 95 even with good rates during  day thursday.  esp quincy south where models hammer fire hose

[radarman]

It's very rarely an "easy" forecast.  We always talk about subtle timing differences, multi-wave interactions, threading the needle, etc., but this storm seems especially tough.  In the end I don't think we see more than a coating in Amherst with primarily drizzle.    In the higher terrain borderline warning criteria, although possibly spread out too much over time to verify.   Good luck to everyone in the hills.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

i've been thinking BL issues since last nite when i pull'd up SPC and it was midnite and 34/32 in bangor,maine 35/29 in ORH and then hmmm dc is gonna get pounded/"rates will be insane"  ya big bust potential big big.

 

Temps are obv. better up here, esp as wind turn more NNE but ...i'm thinkin poor ratio's 34 F glop/slop for bob's area where the firehose seems to have best potential... and  i best accums will be AOA 500 if best stuff even really ends up hammering those areas.  I like N RI 400+ over to say Wrenthem or so.

 

Look at the Euro, it never got the 2m temps all that cold down there until really after lunch.  Not the same up here aside of the immediate coast.

 

I've got a snow shower mixed with rain right now in this crap.  Nevermind at night, and with actual dynamics on Thursday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The firehose signal in SE MA is pretty good right now...I don't think its going to miss them...it makes me feel a bit better about here.We'll need to end up on the northern fringe of it for good snows, but with the current guidance, we should. What an ugly forecast.

 

 

I could honestly see us getting 4" of slop or 14"...this is not too dissimilar to how I felt before the inverted trough event on Feb 23-24. The modeling was getting ugly late in the game, but my gut said stay fairly high with the easterly flow for the hills here...it ended up working out. Different type of storm, but the easterly flow is similar, and I think a late s/w diving in to help enhance it (even if the best is in NY State) is also similar in that regard.

 

My gut is telling me not to get overly bearish here (like 2-5")...so I'm staying pretty bullish. Of course the 12z Euro will come in and give me 0.42" of qpf strung out over 40 hours now that I say this.

You'll be just far enough se.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Color 12z RGEM images blown up.

 

 

[DomNH]

This event blows....and I'm not referring to the easterly winds.

I'm with you. This is the first time I've really had time to look at the models and this looks like garbage, up this way at least. Maybe .5'' of QPF strung out over 30 hours in March. This will amount to wet roads and parking lots with slop on the side and I think that's about it.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think the shadow thing us being way overdone in the valley. I don't see that being nearly the issue some folks are talking about. This isn't a wound up nor'easter where you would see that

[Chrisrotary12]

Don't laugh, well actually you will laugh. But the 12 z RPM has 36-48" across Bristol County.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GFS came quite a bit away from the ledge.  This is terrible news I know for those that were rooting for it to go east. 

 

Same firehose as the others.   Plenty cold.  Lots of snow.  

[nutmegfriar]

Cantore on MSNBC right now from DC.  It is raining and he said "we are running out of time here."  40 miles to the northwest, they are getting hit pretty hard.

 

Cantore looks bummed........................and wet.