NorEastermass128 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm going to manage one of the lower seasonal totals in the region lol You're thinking 2-5" for YBY. For some reason I'm envisioning 4-6" here about 8 miles south (probably on the low end of things) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think i'm just to far NNW to accum 12" sticking with 4-8" for MBY with totals on the lower end of that. I would agree with that. I am thinking 6" for MBY...over into Leominster it might be a little different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The nellies aren't here right now so I'm trying to provide balance to the forum. HA, kidding aside, it's the NAM. Let's see what the Euro/GFS does. JR on Channel 7 says just rain in Boston, no snow at all for me, Boston, Bob, etc. Lock it up. It is a putrid airmass. 40F and drizzle in the city right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ryan what cha thinK? I loled just now when Bob's cut in after Roker said 2 feet plus for burbs and Worcester and said listen to me now its not going to be like that here. Yeah I think you still around going to be around or just over 6". Tough call though. Here I could see 1" or 4" - not really sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It is a putrid airmass. 40F and drizzle in the city right now. It's March 6th...your 850s are -7c right now lol. It's plenty cold for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 The nellies aren't here right now so I'm trying to provide balance to the forum. HA, kidding aside, it's the NAM. Let's see what the Euro/GFS does. JR on Channel 7 says just rain in Boston, no snow at all for me, Boston, Bob, etc. Lock it up. I just don't get it. Someone is going to bust severely on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How accurately do the models generally handle a fire hose feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah I think you still around going to be around or just over 6". Tough call though. Here I could see 1" or 4" - not really sure. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's March 6th...your 850s are -7c right now lol. It's plenty cold for snow. Well, then we just need the heavy rates. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 It is a putrid airmass. 40F and drizzle in the city right now. Yeah, and this was expected. This stuff now has been modeled pretty well as rain. The real system is not until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah I think you still around going to be around or just over 6". Tough call though. Here I could see 1" or 4" - not really sure. I assume closer to 8 my way with the potential of a spot 9-10 near the RI border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 all in all not really all that much of a change in precip from the 06z run...cut back a bit from Boston to Ray...increased precip in the Catskills...increased precip in the northern fringe in SNH and SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just don't get it. Someone is going to bust severely on this. Their forecast may play out well in a round about way (Say if everything gets pushed further S&E this afternoon) They were going with that regardless of the heavy precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Well, then we just need the heavy rates. Right? I think you'd be fine even in moderate snow. This is not a near isothermal layer situation where you need to absolute rip to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Their forecast may play out well in a round about way (Say if everything gets pushed further S&E this afternoon) They were going with that regardless of the heavy precip rates. Than we'll have an epic model bust all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah, and this was expected. This stuff now has been modeled pretty well as rain. The real system is not until tonight. We don't have saturation in the snow growth zone yet, so with temps in the 40s there is no other possible ptype but drizzle really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There was decent snow at my house this morning... 31F and 0.5" when I left the house....so hopefully some of that air is ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You can already see how the terrain is having an effect. Heavier echoes from ORH county down to NE CT. , some shadowing in valley and more heavier echoes over Nw Ct up into Berks and out to Catskills. Fascinating to watch on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Their forecast may play out well in a round about way (Say if everything gets pushed further S&E this afternoon) They were going with that regardless of the heavy precip rates. You're right around 128 too right? If it works out well enough once nowcast time arrives and we end up with 6" that would still be a pretty big bust for those calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think MPM would be happy with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You're right around 128 too right? If it works out well enough once nowcast time arrives and we end up with 6" that would still be a pretty big bust for those calls. Yeah...that's about what I'm expecting. If we get 6" here, then I bet there is a good chance Bob does well in Taunton too. Interior SE MA should be fine. Foxboro special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm impressed with the winds already. Regardless of the snow, the surf should be spectacular along the East facing beaches tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just don't get it. Someone is going to bust severely on this. The NAM is really warm. The Euro JMHO was too cold down near Richmond. I've got real concerns about the warmth from I95 east but let's see what the other guidance shows. You should be okay, but it's getting harder to deny the potential warm wedge. The Euro was actually very good at 10am from last nights run as many of you have noted. Had the firehose aimed right at Richmond right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Good morning babies. So. I've looked at the Euro, I've looked at the GFS, and I've looked at the NAM so far. Not sure what to make of the SE slip. Thank god they're not making me forecast at work today. I guess it's nice that if one of them has to look better than the others for me, it's the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Reiner hedging now, he just moved the r/s line SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Playing devil's advocate - Question 1: How can the NAM be wrong if it has been so consistent over the past 4 runs or so with a heavy qpf. hit, an uber warm 850 line that goes to Canada and has this blob of precip. that heads SWward down the eastern seaboard. It's had that consistently now - How could it be wrong? Question 2: How can the GFS be wrong if it has been so consistent with this going OTS the past 4 runs or so? Question 3: WHAT has the NWS put 1 and only 1 County under a WSWarning?? And a Random one at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks to me like the r/s line to our south was about -2c at 8h. Kind of typical for Spring. That said, I'm probably going to need my rubbers and an umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Something I've noticed is that the good lift through the SGZ is definitely in SE areas. Even Boston would struggle on the NAM....all the lift is centered below the SGZ....so you could get some crappy rates and snowflake production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm impressed with the winds already. Regardless of the snow, the surf should be spectacular along the East facing beaches tomorrow. Yea this is a snow board most of the time but there is some real danger lurking for the EMA coastal folks on the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah...that's about what I'm expecting. If we get 6" here, then I bet there is a good chance Bob does well in Taunton too. Interior SE MA should be fine. Foxboro special? Agreed, SE MA is in a good spot right now. Even if we end up with a warmer scenario there's a good chance it'll end up giving me some new flood pics if it coincides with high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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