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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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I'm sticking with about 12" here...maybe I'm insane. I think the upslope and firehose will come through even if we're on the northern edge of it. It may take 30 hours to get there, but I think we do.

I hope you are right, but I think it will be a bit too SE

 

My Sutton jackpot, maybe Foster, RI is where I am feeling it

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What do you have for your guy in Union?

 

 

6-10"..but that is precarious for sure. The further west you are of the upslope spine, it gets ugly fast. The firehose isn't that strong for areas of SNE north of about GHG-PVD...so it runs into a brick wall as it pushes inland.

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I'm sticking with about 12" here...maybe I'm insane. I think the upslope and firehose will come through even if we're on the northern edge of it. It may take 30 hours to get there, but I think we do.

 

I think you'd call this a wobble.  The NW trim job we kind of expected and that was evident from the QPF verification maps I posted.  The intense band won't make it a huge amount inland (not the NY border). 

 

This is very, very close to the 6z run on the NAM for the main band.

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that vort lobe from the lakes really does help a great deal...especially in western areas.

 

Thing is, I'm not sure we can just eliminate the fruity 8h layer and keep everything else.  NAM is tossed still in my book. Fun to look at, but I'll take the old GFS/Euro compromise with the RGEM tossed in too when it comes out and whatever the two big globals show.

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whats to love?

 

The 5 years I've been out here I come to realize the models often are too ambitious with the effects of the shadowing.  Although Boxing Day was a nightmare.  You are in much tougher location than me but are still looking at .5" to .75" qpf and maybe things work out due to the effects of that N energy giving us a boost.  Luckily this is hitting at night...

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I'm sticking with about 12" here...maybe I'm insane. I think the upslope and firehose will come through even if we're on the northern edge of it. It may take 30 hours to get there, but I think we do.

I think i'm just to far NNW to accum 12" sticking with 4-8" for MBY with totals on the lower end of that.
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