weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 will could u give ORH/BOS qpf ball park for duration, if you have it. I'm not Will but 1.5 ORH and 2.5 BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am locking at least another 50 mi., or perhaps more (100+?) s/e trend on the gfs. The uk and rgem staying in the ballpark is good. I'm hoping the euro comes NW a little, that'd give me confidence. The other times when we had some unfortunate systems all models bumped se at this stage to varying degrees. Uk edging a bit NW, and rgem looking good probably signals this is going to be different and the euro will edge NW. This move was totally expected, think we said as much on page 1. No bad news here aside of the nam which is tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 will could u give ORH/BOS qpf ball park for duration, if you have it (ballpark) We can only see half the qpf since its missing panels from 60-66h and 48-54h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't like that look since the screw potential is so high with that weenie enhancement to the QPF. Unless you are at 1000', you are on the outside looking in without the big lift. I don't know why, but when I look at the gfs I have flashbacks to 2/10/10 in terms of qpf placement wrt 500/700mb low placement. I see why the model is doing it, but I do not trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i hope GEFS are NW but honestly .....like it's just not trustworhy as arnold said when chips are down. I'm not Will but 1.5 ORH and 2.5 BOS. For the Ukie , jerry. Rollo is on a roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't like that look since the screw potential is so high with that weenie enhancement to the QPF. Unless you are at 1000', you are on the outside looking in without the big lift. If we end up 35.2F and pounding rains, so be it. 00z GFS cold at H85. I'll take my chances for a heavy wet warning level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't know why, but when I look at the gfs I have flashbacks to 2/10/10 in terms of qpf placement wrt 500/700mb low placement. I see why the model is doing it, but I do not trust it. Ugh awful storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The reason why this is doing this in this run is because there is a significantly stronger N stream closed vortex being inject into the back side, and it not close enough to phase, so the natural result is that it kicks - it's a new feature, so I would urge caution on this run. Hopefully folks will listen to this instead of just getting pissy and knee-jerk reacting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't know why, but when I look at the gfs I have flashbacks to 2/10/10 in terms of qpf placement wrt 500/700mb low placement. I see why the model is doing it, but I do not trust it. As long as it doesnt get squashed on the north side by confluence, it should be fine. Dec 1992 gave like 4 inches of qpf with a similar placement of the ML features...Feb '10 screwed us...I think a lot has to do with how robust the ML circulation is...if you look at Feb '10 you can see how squashed it looks on the northern side on the maps versus a storm like Dec '92. I don't expect Dec '92 again, but I think the firehose is far enough north in this one to do damage...assuming the Euro can bump NW a little more. If we get a Euro solution at 12z verbatim, then we'd see uglier results. (but still prob more precip than Feb '10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still going to be about 2"+ QPF east of ORH. A lot of Debbies in here, but I'll take my chances. lol, There will be more debbies by 0z tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS tries to do an odd late phase with the piece of energy over the Lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We can only see half the qpf since its missing panels from 60-66h and 48-54h. Yeah I thought he was asking gfs so I gave that. But presuming we double its not bad in a model traditionally stingy on qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone have a time table on when its projected to get cranking? Just ballpark rough guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The reason why this is doing this in this run is because there is a significantly stronger N stream closed vortex being inject into the back side, and it not close enough to phase, so the natural result is that it kicks - it's a new feature, so I would urge caution on this run. Hopefully folks will listen to this instead of just getting pissy and knee-jerk reacting. Yea.. That helps keep this thing going til friday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The reason why this is doing this in this run is because there is a significantly stronger N stream closed vortex being inject into the back side, and it not close enough to phase, so the natural result is that it kicks - it's a new feature, so I would urge caution on this run. Hopefully folks will listen to this instead of just getting pissy and knee-jerk reacting. We should do karate in the garage. It's odd to me that the gfs had so many adjustments so early but then again maybe I shouldn't view it as odd as I figured it was off its rocker. Correcting may be a better word. The rgem has the main ULL in a good position with the northern energy coming down. The negative sentiment is partly the crappy nam which should be ignored up here. First sentence is from step brothers (movie).. I am saying we share the same idea not challenging you to a duel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The thing is, that firehose is everything. 50 miles se and it's some rain and snow with gusty winds. Walking a tight line. The storm acts like a normal low over the MA and then we have to hope that firehose (which is real) makes into SNE perfectly. I the relying on that. Could it happen, yes, but it's more of a gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Weenie sv snow maps give 12-18 for many if us and 8-12 almost to dryslotville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We should do karate in the garage. It's odd to me that the gfs had so many adjustments so early but then again maybe I shouldn't view it as odd as I figured it was off its rocker. Correcting may be a better word. The rgem has the main ULL in a good position with the northern energy coming down. The negative sentiment is partly the crappy nam which should be ignored up here. First sentence is from step brothers (movie).. I am saying we share the same idea not challenging you to a duel. I also think there is negative sentiment in that the GFS didn't get even better...people saw this thing ramp up for like 4 striaght runs and now finally it is starting to sober up. Its always a bit of a buzzkill to see a model finally come down off the most extreme solution desired. We can tell people not to expect 20" of snow, but its hard for them to see those model runs and not seriously think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And despite the pissing and moaning.that it didn't snow the 18z 4 inch qpf boms it gives 2 inches ORH east, 3 BOS east, 1+ pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I also think there is negative sentiment in that the GFS didn't get even better...people saw this thing ramp up for like 4 striaght runs and now finally it is starting to sober up. Its always a bit of a buzzkill to see a model finally come down off the most extreme solution desired. We can tell people not to expect 20" of snow, but its hard for them to see those model runs and not seriously think about it. I didn't buy those runs at all, but I don't like relying on the dynamics...it's just a tough gamble. Hopefully the euro comes north. I'm just a little skepticle still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We should do karate in the garage. It's odd to me that the gfs had so many adjustments so early but then again maybe I shouldn't view it as odd as I figured it was off its rocker. Correcting may be a better word. The rgem has the main ULL in a good position with the northern energy coming down. The negative sentiment is partly the crappy nam which should be ignored up here. First sentence is from step brothers (movie).. I am saying we share the same idea not challenging you to a duel. In the most stable solution scenarios, the GFS is known to insert a run or two of 'whaaat'... Not sure why the GFS is obtrusive with that feature suddenly, but we can't say this is any beginning of any capitulation - that's absurd to me. 1 this feature isn't featured in any other model type, like it is "suddenly" and "inconsistently" on this run. 2 in its absence, the result is still the same; though, it's still meaningful, albeit middling in this run. 3 if the new features exertion verifies, you can't blame the GFS, erstwhile, because it would be the first run that saw it. But I can see the clan just default scapegoating as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I didn't buy those runs at all, but I don't like relying on the dynamics...it's just a tough gamble. Hopefully the euro comes north. I'm just a little skepticle still. Well there is no other option for the coastline, is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And despite the pissing and moaning.that it didn't snow the 18z 4 inch qpf boms it gives 2 inches ORH east, 3 BOS east, 1+ pretty far north. I didn't ', but it's a gamble for us Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS phases BTW. This is new. Result is a norlun, but it is a new concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And despite the pissing and moaning.that it didn't snow the 18z 4 inch qpf boms it gives 2 inches ORH east, 3 BOS east, 1+ pretty far north. Yeah...you'd think this thing missed. Everyone take a xanax and get a good night sleep. But I agree with Will's observation. Always a buzzkill when the most extreme solution comes back to reality (a bit) It could easily ramp up again at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I didn't ', but it's a gamble for us Jerry. It has to be. It's not February with -25 sitting north of us. I'm ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I also think there is negative sentiment in that the GFS didn't get even better...people saw this thing ramp up for like 4 striaght runs and now finally it is starting to sober up. Its always a bit of a buzzkill to see a model finally come down off the most extreme solution desired. We can tell people not to expect 20" of snow, but its hard for them to see those model runs and not seriously think about it. Not to complicate matter further, but that is not really true, Will - look at the eastern GL ULL in this run; it's obstrusiveness is so new that it's questionable whether that is real - again again again, without it, this run is really just like its predecessors. It's may be more "drunk" in having suddenly introduced this... But I agree - people have an idealized solution in mind, and when model runs start going toward it, they get all giddy but just can't wait to woe-is-me when a run arrives that angles less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well there is no other option for the coastline, is there? Not really. But it sounds like people don't get that a slight shift se means a lot of liquid potentially which was the worry. Just a concern I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I also think there is negative sentiment in that the GFS didn't get even better...people saw this thing ramp up for like 4 striaght runs and now finally it is starting to sober up. Its always a bit of a buzzkill to see a model finally come down off the most extreme solution desired. We can tell people not to expect 20" of snow, but its hard for them to see those model runs and not seriously think about it. Yeah agreed. For all the issues with the gfs at least it's mostly predictable at this point in this winter. The NAM is still our Gary Busey but at least it's whacked out enough usually that we know we can toss. Long as the ggem and euro stay in the area, hopefully with upticks to both I think we are in good shape. Shame it's not a little colder, this could be quite memorable for some of you with this inflow and duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I didn't buy those runs at all, but I don't like relying on the dynamics...it's just a tough gamble. Hopefully the euro comes north. I'm just a little skepticle still. Scooter flags at full staff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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