OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 09z SREFs looks pretty similar to 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Still don't understand upton, 6-9" on map. With winter weather advisory for 2-4" plus another 1-3" doesn't add up. Change the map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 09z SREFs still hitting the SE MA areas. Trimmed back one the W & N areas.Classic downslope/shadow signal too in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 09z SREFs still hitting the SE MA areas. Trimmed back one the W & N areas.Classic downslope/shadow signal too in CT. Zero doubt in my mind the GFS is too weak and subsequently too far SE. the thing is I can't say the other 3 models were near perfect either but I'm not that worried about your area to mine to be honest. SREFs are like 1.25" from RI east. That doesn't seem like a bad way to go when factored in with the bigger hit models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 One thing that I think is more clear on the NAM vs reality than the Euro vs reality...the NAM was far too wet "inland" with the hose. West of the Delmarva it was likely overdone. Also note the placement of the low on the SPC meso, and their couple of hour forecast. The gFS shifted that low offshore jumping SE. The SPC, NAM, Euro and RGEM are NW of that position along Ches. Bay, not moving it offshore. 992 is about the lowest I could find on the mesonet. I'm not a huge believer that pressure matters a ton, but there's no doubt the GFS is 4-5 mb too high. That would be a little south of the Euro position, not a ton but maybe 25 miles. Somewhere between the GFS/NAM-Euro. The big difference in these models occurs as the low crosses the coast from land to water. The GFS just falls apart kind of disrupting the firehose enough that it never gets going again. That does seem like an error to me, but with the expectation that at least the NAM was overdone. if I didn't know better I wouldn't think that the RGEM/Euro were all that bad. is it me or does it look the transfer is happening pretty fast to the coastal-meaning DC west doesn't really get into the big banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 09z SREFs still hitting the SE MA areas. Trimmed back one the W & N areas.Classic downslope/shadow signal too in CT. I'm not sure the N areas could be trimmed back anymore lol. This is going to be interesting when we get into the now casting. E SNE has never been in doubt with this (outside of NAM warmth) as long as precip is heavy. W of 495 etc there could be a lot of folks closely watching the radar, some hallucinating... I'm still hopeful Box map works out but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm not sure the N areas could be trimmed back anymore lol. This is going to be interesting when we get into the now casting. E SNE has never been in doubt with this (outside of NAM warmth) as long as precip is heavy. W of 495 etc there could be a lot of folks closely watching the radar, some hallucintaing... I'm still hopeful Box map works out but we'll see. This run increased in the 24 hours ending at 72 vs 78 last run, and in the 24 hours ending at 48 increased NW of Boston. Slightly, but the firehose signal was there. I think a smart play is what I said earlier this am, a compromise between the GFS/Euro for now, which is basically/very near the 9z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 No doubt this is a big shift SE over PA vs the earlier NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Still don't understand upton, 6-9" on map. With winter weather advisory for 2-4" plus another 1-3" doesn't add up. Change the map! It's 6-9 over a day plus. That's winter weather advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 No cold air...and we are relying upon an ULL, who lives four neighborhoods away, to make a shot off a garage, off a roof, off a bird bath, off my Celica, off Kev's scalp, nothing but net......probably won't work out. Good analogy. Just walking through Downtown Crossing with the wind (41F) tells me this might be a tough heartbreaker (at least) on the coast. I have my doubts wrt the EURO's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's 6-9 over a day plus. That's winter weather advisory criteria. Yes but 2-4 and 1-3 equal 3-7" not 6-9" just change the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 is it me or does it look the transfer is happening pretty fast to the coastal-meaning DC west doesn't really get into the big banding? It's kind of down the middle between what the earlier runs showed. The NAM tried to bury a low in Ches. Bay for a few hours..no quite the case, appears close. This run backed off of that and is a compromise between it's old run, and the GFS through 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam starts of nw at 9 them goes SE at 12 looks wet so far, them very dry for ct after 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Still a huge hit over SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Man, that sucks...se MA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is going to deliver the goods for SE areas. Still think is blows with the thermal profiles though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 First time I've seen 12+ probs higher than 8+ probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thru 25 hours the nub of 6 hour .5 QPF is actually just a hair further north towards and between Bob and I, but it definitely cut back west of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Man, that sucks...se MA special. Doesn't suck for some. Probably sucks for a dude like socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Love the BOX loser stripe for the CT river valley whats to love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 if the SREF are right, CT sees little.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 12z nam moved the "firehose" further S/E by a fairly significant margin...put BOS and Will's area in questionable territory. Bob still looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 12z nam moved the "firehose" further S/E by a fairly significant margin...put BOS and Will's area in questionable territory. Bob still looks fine. Stunning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think it's worth noting that for this entire storm.. all of the models have been trying to catch up to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam cuts back to about .3-.5" for fire batch for southern ct except .75 far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's brutal with these systems that need a half dozen dynamic pieces to all line up correctly to deliver. How about a good old fashioned Miller A sometime? You know, the ones where we have a beautiful cold high sitting over Ontario/Quebec and every model is locked in 5 days out. EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm sticking with about 12" here...maybe I'm insane. I think the upslope and firehose will come through even if we're on the northern edge of it. It may take 30 hours to get there, but I think we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think it's worth noting that for this entire storm.. all of the models have been trying to catch up to the GFS Is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Comparing all the SREFs to the NAM at 850, there is only like one or 2 members that are as warm as it. The rest are all below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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