weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 When BOS doesn't look great it tends to out him in a bad mood , and that portends to him Debbie ing everywhere else too. Maybe he's right and we don't get snow. Lets see how it all plays out You want BOS to score because its not going to be pouring rain while you snow but it may be slop while you get 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 lol. Let the meltdowns begin. Still sticking with my call a few weeks ago that Kev's last warning was the blizzard. Not even sure if I will see a warning in my county. lol we already are under a warning at work Box will convert soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Incredulous how can you ignore the Euro, bad feelings? what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah it looks similar to the Euro ens except still higher in SE MA. through 72 hours...1" it KGAY-ORH-Old Lyme, CT....BOS-PVD 2"...PYM-TAN-EWB 2.5", BDL 0.80" (HFD/TOL maybe a touch more)...MPM 0.75", ASH-PSM 0.80",...BDR 0.80" Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There's just zero cold air with this....unless it really comes down at a given location, it's not going to stick No cold air...and we are relying upon an ULL, who lives four neighborhoods away, to make a shot off a garage, off a roof, off a bird bath, off my Celica, off Kev's scalp, nothing but net......probably won't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You want BOS to score because its not going to be pouring rain while you snow but it may be slop while you get 3 inches.of course I want Bos to score. I want everyone to. It seems he's saying Noone gets any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upton has me at 6-10. I will surprised to get 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 No cold air...and we are relying upon an ULL, who lives four neighborhoods away, to make a shot off a garage, off a roof, off a bird bath, off my Celica, off Kev's scalp, nothing but net......probably won't work out. Then again, at a Celtics game 3 years ago this guy from the crowd is shooting from half court at half time for 50k. Nothing but net. Most exciting moment of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The FEb blizzard was a 4-8" storm for most of CT on the GFS even once the storm was underway. It may have done a good job sniffing this threat out, but I still wouldn't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm not riding any model whatsoever with this. My gut tells me this won't be a big deal for BOS. I don't like the look of this. meteorology, pattern recognition, gut level instincts, experience? do you think the winds will be bad enough at BOS later this eve to disrupt flights? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 No cold air...and we are relying upon an ULL, who lives four neighborhoods away, to make a shot off a garage, off a roof, off a bird bath, off my Celica, off Kev's scalp, nothing but net......probably won't work out. It's brutal with these systems that need a half dozen dynamic pieces to all line up correctly to deliver. How about a good old fashioned Miller A sometime? You know, the ones where we have a beautiful cold high sitting over Ontario/Quebec and every model is locked in 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's brutal with these systems that need a half dozen dynamic pieces to all line up correctly to deliver. How about a good old fashioned Miller A sometime? You know, the ones where we have a beautiful cold high sitting over Ontario/Quebec and every model is locked in 5 days out. Lol...like we had a month ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There's plenty of cold air around there...it's colder than many other blockbuster nor'easters are. The warmest 850mb temp in BOS/SE MA during the storm is -5c on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There's plenty of cold air around there...it's colder than many other blockbuster nor'easters are. The warmest 850mb temp in BOS/SE MA during the storm is -5c on the euro. Yes it's cold enough to snow but it would be much easier if it wasn't 40 500 miles to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol...like we had a month ago? lol yup. I actually had hoped for a few more SWFE's this winter, good for W NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yes it's cold enough to snow but it would be much easier if it wasn't 40 500 miles to the north. It might be too warm then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREF Plumes look good for 8-12" of SE MA/ RI, taking out the ridiculously high #'s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Latest SPC 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 service_area_map.jpg3onhose.jpg Nice work! That's a keeper. Light rain here right now. Temps only got down to 28 overnight here. Crystal clear when I went to bed at 10pm so I thought we were really going to drop, clouds must've come in quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BOS plumes pretty robust but they seem to be a weenie product alot of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 BOS plumes pretty robust but they seem to be a weenie product alot of times. This close in, they should be weighted a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 meteorology, pattern recognition, gut level instincts, experience? do you think the winds will be bad enough at BOS later this eve to disrupt flights? thanks. This evening should be ok in tht dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This evening should be ok in tht dept. thanks for that....due to land at 9:40. Expecting to drive home from Logan in spitting rain/snow with wet roads and to wake up in Webster to light snow. Probably a slowly accumulating 3-5 inches by Friday morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 of course I want Bos to score. I want everyone to. It seems he's saying Noone gets any snow That's not true and I'm not being a Debbie. You and Will should be cold enough for snow. I just have a weird feeling about this whole evolution, but perhaps it's all for Nothing. I don't like these subtle trends in all models right now. You just have to worry about moisture, but for here it's a double edged sword about temps and moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This close in, they should be weighted a bit. ASH dropped to 7.5 inches...I would be OK with that. After this I am ready for 75 and sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Guys right or wrong, here's my thought. One of the huge issues between the GFS/stink camps and the hit camps was what happened over the southern Delmarva last night. That's where this big gap broke in the precip on the later SREFs. Related obviously to what is going on offshore and the transfer from Ohio. These maps are a pretty rough illustration, coupled with the 6 hour totals. The GFS and SREF donut hole is tenuous at best. I would venture to say the GFS missed the "firehose" that came in off the Atlantic across the eastern Maryland shore. NAM was over .75 there, and that's what fell in a narrow band. GFS was roughly under .5 in areas that were over .80. Look particularly south of Salsbury MD. The GFS really wanted to split up the firehose their earlier. At the same time the NAM was too extensive with the precip. This is a tightly banded bugger. Surface low position is a compromise of all the models. The Euro/NAM were best based on the SPC stuff as to where the low was at 12z, but it's also a little more elongated to the SE like the GFS. Long story short I don't think the wetter models were terrible, the extent may be overdone which has been the case with the banding in PA. At the same time I am fairly certain the GFS was too light by a decent margin in some critical areas, namely it broke up the firehose over the Delmarva which doesn't appear to have been the case in favor of a convective blob offshore, and the band near Richmond. I don't see that the Euro was that bad to be honest, nor say the RGEM/CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upton has me at 6-10. I will surprised to get 3-5. even if that's what fell (and it's from both events), there would not be 6-10 OTG, it would start melting/compacting almost immediately.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks like a miss for ME, at the most 4-6 in limited areas. Only 1-2 for most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 One thing that I think is more clear on the NAM vs reality than the Euro vs reality...the NAM was far too wet "inland" with the hose. West of the Delmarva it was likely overdone. Also note the placement of the low on the SPC meso, and their couple of hour forecast. The gFS shifted that low offshore jumping SE. The SPC, NAM, Euro and RGEM are NW of that position along Ches. Bay, not moving it offshore. 992 is about the lowest I could find on the mesonet. I'm not a huge believer that pressure matters a ton, but there's no doubt the GFS is 4-5 mb too high. That would be a little south of the Euro position, not a ton but maybe 25 miles. Somewhere between the GFS/NAM-Euro. The big difference in these models occurs as the low crosses the coast from land to water. The GFS just falls apart kind of disrupting the firehose enough that it never gets going again. That does seem like an error to me, but with the expectation that at least the NAM was overdone. if I didn't know better I wouldn't think that the RGEM/Euro were all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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