Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is pretty similar to the Euro for AFN-ORH-GON eastward..its much worse to the west. NAM and the meso models are destroying the weakning firehose in the ORH hills...it can't get past them. To the west of them is an obscene cutoff. I saw that on the high res stuff too. Hills were not friendly. this first band could be really crazy. I hope it can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 wow, nam is wet. 2.5-3" for se ma thru 57h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 wow, nam is wet. 2.5-3" for se ma thru 57h Has there been any comment about the nam torch from noaa? I mean wtd. Otherwise it's a crush job again. If the euro and its ensembles are going down so is the nam, CMC and high res stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Has there been any comment about the nam torch from noaa? I mean wtd. Otherwise it's a crush job again. If the euro and its ensembles are going down so is the nam, CMC and high res stuff If this stuff sags south about 40-50 miles...only SE MA is in the game and RI...perhaps we are getting your dream storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Has there been any comment about the nam torch from noaa? I mean wtd. Otherwise it's a crush job again. If the euro and its ensembles are going down so is the nam, CMC and high res stuff :thats my only pause now on going huge. srefs do it too but not before a dumping on us. srefs are a bit colder and drop ~2" before 850s >0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 6z NAM east of 0z.Looked to be within the bounds of normal wobbles. There's no movement there towards a fold that we would normally be seeing now. Maybe you will get your wish at 12zI feel like there are more people excited about this potentially missing than those in the hit zome are excited about it coming as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 here are the srefs thru 60h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looked to be within the bounds of normal wobbles. There's no movement there towards a fold that we would normally be seeing now. Maybe you will get your wish at 12z I feel like there are more people excited about this potentially missing than those in the hit zome are excited about it coming as modeled. It looks amazing here on the Euro/ensembles./NAM/GGEM....but its so close to "missing" (missing in quotes as in a moderate event vs a monster hit)....Perhaps this is the storm that finally puts to bed the myth that the vaunted ORH is always just far enough enough on the right direction for a storm that gives huge totals to a chunk of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If this stuff sags south about 40-50 miles...only SE MA is in the game and RI...perhaps we are getting your dream storm. Check your pms in the morning falling asleep I think now but this isn't my dream storm more like a nightmare. This one is brutal. Bob could lose some of the back end stuff and still get dumped because of some mega banding. You need the firehose and I need the nam to not be right about temps. Nam euro, euro ens, ggem, mesos all argue for 8-16" just inland and back to you and ginxy. The shave down as a tip to this maybe shifting on the back end. Otherwise you'd be way up there and bob . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Light snow falling here under a starlit sky... obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It looks amazing here on the Euro/ensembles./NAM/GGEM....but its so close to "missing" (missing in quotes as in a moderate event vs a monster hit)....Perhaps this is the storm that finally puts to bed the myth that the vaunted ORH is always just far enough enough on the right direction for a storm that gives huge totals to a chunk of the area. I wonder why we are all being so hesitant? I mean at this point...amazing is the right word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Check your pms in the morning falling asleep I think now but this isn't my dream storm more like a nightmare. This one is brutal. Bob could lose some of the back end stuff and still get dumped because of some mega banding. You need the firehose and I need the nam to not be right about temps. Nam euro, euro ens, ggem, mesos all argue for 8-16" just inland and back to you and ginxy. The shave down as a tip to this maybe shifting on the back end. Otherwise you'd be way up there and bob . Well I hope this gets stabilized right now...or nudges back north....to keep most of eastern half of SNE in the game. Otherwise the Russian is cut and ORH is going down in flames with a moderate event assuming parts of interior SE MA get clocked. I've been pretty bullish here assuming at least the northern part of the firehose gets here because we'll clean up very quickly if that happens...but now I'm having larger doubts....I probably shouldn't based on the NAM/SREFs...but they are not without skill inside of 30 hours. They are verbatim still a great hit....but just worried about the daggar with another 30-40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Well I hope this gets stabilized right now...or nudges back north....to keep most of eastern half of SNE in the game. Otherwise the Russian is cut and ORH is going down in flames with a moderate event assuming parts of interior SE MA get clocked. I've been pretty bullish here assuming at least the northern part of the firehose gets here because we'll clean up very quickly if that happens...but now I'm having larger doubts....I probably shouldn't based on the NAM/SREFs...but they are not without skill inside of 30 hours. They are verbatim still a great hit....but just worried about the daggar with another 30-40 miles. I like what we are seeing already on radar here. Impressive. I'd like to see the gfs stop going se. I'd like to see the rgem stay similar. If this does come to pass one would have to question why 1 ncep model torched and the other was awful aloft inside of 72 hours. It would be a total failure. Radar to the south is key looking at SREF members. The cruddy ones have one really thin band that stops dead in central Delaware. Seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Scooter is definitely more grumpy with ORH ever since the the 2/24 event where we got 8"...his tone with me in texts has gotten a bit acidic. Kind of made me feel like MPM or skiMRG...and Ray is dying for a bust here while he gets 16". Don't think he will get his wish this storm as its more latitude vs longitude for our respective areas. But I'm starting to question my bullish call for Princeton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Will at this point if we bust we do so with a consensus of models giving you what you forecast based on average ratios. None of us can really see why the models handle the 5h different almost immediately at the point it crosses from land to sea today. That's curious to me I'm sure there is a reason. But it starts right then. The gfs stuff I mapped out earlier is gone this run. The gfs came to the euro ideas. But the end result is not the same and there's no real reason why. It's weaker at 5h in the lakes. No way we can tell if its right or wrong yet. So we are kind of stuck. The bothersome part of this is the NAM warmth. If that wasn't occurring I'd have no problem riding the non hydrostatic models and going huge. Things will shift probably still but it's 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I've got the same worries you do about se shifts. The Johnny come latelies will love if that happens. I just don't see that there is anything we can see for the next 5-7 hours that'll provide a real decisive clue and we are out of time. The best and most consistent models this winter have a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Will at this point if we bust we do so with a consensus of models giving you what you forecast based on average ratios. None of us can really see why the models handle the 5h different almost immediately at the point it crosses from land to sea today. That's curious to me I'm sure there is a reason. But it starts right then. The gfs stuff I mapped out earlier is gone this run. The gfs came to the euro ideas. But the end result is not the same and there's no real reason why. It's weaker at 5h in the lakes. No way we can tell if its right or wrong yet. So we are kind of stuck. The bothersome part of this is the NAM warmth. If that wasn't occurring I'd have no problem riding the non hydrostatic models and going huge. Things will shift probably still but it's 24 hours out. The NAM warmth is garbage...i promise that is th least of the worries for E MA. The bigger worry is the firehose position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Everything sunk south including the inverted trough action in Upstate NY. Still 1" qpf here, but 25 miles to the north maybe .4" The SREF mean of .5" is probably more realistic. Well I hope this gets stabilized right now...or nudges back north....to keep most of eastern half of SNE in the game. Otherwise the Russian is cut and ORH is going down in flames with a moderate event assuming parts of interior SE MA get clocked. I've been pretty bullish here assuming at least the northern part of the firehose gets here because we'll clean up very quickly if that happens...but now I'm having larger doubts....I probably shouldn't based on the NAM/SREFs...but they are not without skill inside of 30 hours. They are verbatim still a great hit....but just worried about the daggar with another 30-40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM warmth is garbage...i promise that is th least of the worries for E MA. The bigger worry is the firehose position. Yeah. I think the noaa map is a great compromise for now. Especially in the east. Middle of the road totals. It's enough to warn people, they can be adjusted up or down in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rgem still looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Btw non hydrostatic? Euro, nam, rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM flattens metro NYC because they get all the banding and now also a good chunk from the inverted trough. Yeah. I think the noaa map is a great compromise for now. Especially in the east. Middle of the road totals. It's enough to warn people, they can be adjusted up or down in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rgem 6z maybe 30mm plus for Will. Looks like 45 plus here it has one panel with over 25mm. Rgem/nam/euro really don't want to back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Will you think we're ok here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The same razor sharp northern cutoff on the 6Z RGEM at 48 hours. Basically dry north of the Mass border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Will you think we're ok here? Wow you're up early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow you're up early! Off to run a quick 8 It looks it snowed. Dusting on deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Off to run a quick 8 It looks it snowed. Dusting on deck Yeah, the stars were out but light snow was falling, it was pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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