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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Good that it looks like we banish Morch to the dustbin this year.

 

Now what I want is a big early season cold/snowy pattern starting in November like the old days. I'm sick of pissing away the first month of met winter.  Maybe we can go six months from last snow to first snow. :)

 

 

Well that hapened to your east this year...November was cold/snowy for SNE to NYC this year. It was a top 10 cold November and record snowy in southern CT.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

I know Nov was chilly, but didn't recall the snow.  Yeah nothing here except a few inches of LES the day I was leaving for Europe on the 25th. Then I was gone and you guys were mild until Xmas I think.

Well that hapened to your east this year...November was cold/snowy for SNE to NYC this year. It was a top 10 cold November and record snowy in southern CT.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Well...I'm not sure how they can come on air in a few hours with slushy snow showers in the CP.

 

I'm pretty sure they will go with 6+ most areas if they have not already.  Near freezing temps and 24 hours lead time should give some leeway, but if tomorrow holds course forecasts ramp up quickly.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I definitely see your point. But I still think you overstate the differences. To my eye, the moisture train on the GFS 700mb and 850mb panels looks basically similar to the Euro "firehouse," just toned down. We might even call the GFS a firehose if we were not comparing to 3" solutions. I think it's an unjustified presumption that we can deduce the cause of the QPF differences based on a visual analysis of graphical charts. The processes at work require supercomputers to resolve. It could just be a simple model phsyics issue. I think the GFS is too light with QPF, but primarily because it's the driest outlier. And the GEFS are dreadfully boring with QPF.

When the 63 hr gfs from a run 6hrs ago had the digging 500mb feature as a sheared mess exiting the Chesapeake bay region, and 6 hours later its a few hundred miles NW and in line with the other guidance but still much weaker I can be pretty sure this model is still not there synoptically and is mostly worthless. That is a huge change at that range and a huge change towards consensus.

At the same time the euro did skip east with the main ULL and this had been a reoccurring theme with these wound up systems. That's why I think ncep is wise in blending the two.

The differences inside of maybe 48 hours are the normal variances we will see. Look at the edge of where they both have the heavy band moving. Very close. What is different about the gfs is what comes after 45/48+ and that's likely the gfs sucking wind on that feature coming down. BUT I won't ignore the seasonal trend of the euro to overplay that backside snows because it stalls the lows too far west. I see evidence of it moving already, which is why I'd blend the gfs and euro after 48.

It should also be noted that some of the higher stuff goes ballistic with the first band of precip. All models agree on that being a hit, so it's possible we see very high precip totals just from that alone.

In short most models are in reasonable agreement on the front end. What comes after that in the stalled firehose stage... I'd smooth out with a blend of all guidance.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I know Nov was chilly, but didn't recall the snow.  Yeah nothing here except a few inches of LES the day I was leaving for Europe on the 25th. Then I was gone and you guys were mild until Xmas I think.

 

 

Yeah because you whiffed both the Nov 6-7 and Nov 27 events, but you are right we torched after November....but anyways, back on topic. Its late with nobody on, but still have a storm to analyze.

 

03z SREFs out in 15 min and I'm sure they will bump SE. This storm won't allow anyone to relax.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Eduggs to illustrate the point. The 0z gfs is .5 to 1.5 from about Will to Ack. After that its only about .25 over the region. That alone is enough to justify the box forecast assuming all snow inland and some mess here but much higher qpf ( we could argue that supports 8-12+)

That's not terribly out of line with the ggem with the ggem being more slightly. The ggem does drop more as the system shift south whereas the gfs bails mostly on that.

Based on the gfs earlier handling I will say its more wrong than the euro post 48. Middle of the road thinking about it I would be. 45% euro, 45% ggem and 10% goofus

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Yeah because you whiffed both the Nov 6-7 and Nov 27 events, but you are right we torched after November....but anyways, back on topic. Its late with nobody on, but still have a storm to analyze.

03z SREFs out in 15 min and I'm sure they will bump SE. This storm won't allow anyone to relax.

Maybe not Will. Don't forget the NMM is like. 7 feet of snow and the arw a bunch. Probably follows that in the hit zone they are crazed

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I feel like George Clooney right now in the "Perfect Storm" when he makes the amazing turn-around of the Andrea Gail and then realizes that he just turned into the eye of the storm and says "she's not gonna let us out"....this is a brutal brutal system to forecast. She's not gonna let us out...so to speak.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1225 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK AS WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS S FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET EARLIER ALONG NE MA COAST BUT EXPECT ANY OF THAT TO BE SHORT LIVED. LOWER CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNRISE.

00Z GFS TRENDED FARTHER S WITH BEST LIFT...NOW MORE FOCUSED ALONG S COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT BEFORE PIVOTING TO EASTERN MA COAST THU. WE MAY NEED TO CUT BACK ON SNOW ACCUMS PENDING REVIEW OF OTHER MODELS INCLUDING 00Z ECMWF.

REGARDING 00Z NAM...STILL SEEING TROWAL SETTING UP FROM LONG ISLAND TO NANTUCKET THU WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT JUST TO S. IF NAM IS CORRECT THIS WOULD FOCUS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST TO N THU /PVD-TAN-PYM CORRIDOR/ BEFORE TROWAL COLLAPSES OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN LOCATIONS FARTHER N ARE OUT OF WOODS FOR HEAVY SNOW THREAT...BUT CERTAINLY BEST DYNAMICS ARE FOCUSED CLOSER TO S COAST INITIALLY BEFORE WRAPAROUND AFFECTS MUCH OF EASTERN MA THU EVENING...WHICH IS WHEN BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY SINCE WE LOSE EFFECTS OF HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL TEMPS. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE ASSESS OTHER 00Z MODEL RUNS.

WEDNESDAY... MODELS ALL PLACE COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION. THE NAM IS FASTEST/FARTHEST NORTH...THE GFS IN BETWEEN...AND THE ECMWF AND GGEM SOUTH. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING EAST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUST POTENTIAL REACHES AT LEAST 30 KNOTS OVER LAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD REACH 35 OR 40 KNOTS. FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS SHIFT NORTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL JET CORE IS ALSO MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND WE HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HELD OFF ON ANYTHING MORE HEAVY DUTY...FIGURING THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREA FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY.

TEMPS ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF MOS WITH SURFACE MAX VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

SREFs way SE...much drier. No 2" contour anywhere in MA now except briefly on the islands at 48h.

I told ya she wouldn't let us rest. Gonna be a barn burner.

I haven't followed the srefs can't stand them. But total qpf seems to be in line with the other guidance. 1.25" or so around bob to 2" or so down near the cape. Gfs/gefs/ggem type consensus, but not the nam euro.

The front end is pretty good. Everything else after that we have to remember the euro tendency this year to overdo.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

I haven't followed the srefs can't stand them.

 

I've found them to be way more unstable since the ARW/NMM members took over. Sure the RSM and ETA members were ancient...but they at least seemed to add some stability. The ARW members blow up a garden variety shower to a 6" QPF blizzard with hurricane force winds.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

not bad over se ma.

1.5-2" before 850s >0c

 

 

I'd take the 06z NAM here in a second...but I'm just worried the trend isn't done. It fire-hoses here with like 1.5" of qpf all snow. But the firehose is precarious as it won't take a big shift to put ORH out of the game. The line seems to be the NH border.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Think the euro choked up a fur ball on this one? Did the euro ens come out?

Nam has ridiculous front end totals. I think we toss.

 

 

Euro ensembles are 1" MA/NH border in essex county to ORH to just west of GON....BOS 1.5"..SE MA 1.75" (like TAN/PYM/EWB), 0.75" for ASH to BDL to BDR.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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I'd take the 06z NAM here in a second...but I'm just worried the trend isn't done. It fire-hoses here with like 1.5" of qpf all snow. But the firehose is precarious as it won't take a big shift to put ORH out of the game. The line seems to be the NH border.

yeah i see what your saying there

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Having the NAM on your side is like being friends with Momar Khadafi, not trustworthy.

How similar is it to the Euro?

 

 

NAM is pretty similar to the Euro for AFN-ORH-GON eastward..its much worse to the west. NAM and the meso models are destroying the weakning firehose in the ORH hills...it can't get past them. To the west of them is an obscene cutoff.

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