Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That could be a rough ride. Synoptically the 12z Euro doesn't seem all that different to me than the other globals (despite well articulated arguments to the contrary). I thought QPF was suspiciously high in EMA this afternoon. That might not be real. But it would be comforting to hold onto it for another run. We'll find out shortly. The 18z GFS and 0z GFS aren't even in the same ballpark at 500. The move that was made was towards the Euro but oddly the QPF and dynamics got worse. That's really the only concern I have. That shift over the lakes JMHO is about as big a swing as you'll ever see the GFS make at this range. The one out over the ocean was predictable due to the factors mentioned earlier. Despite that it did not respond at the surface and that does bug me. Pre-Euro a compromise between the 0z GGEM and 12z Euro ENS seems fine, maybe ratcheted down a smidge for safety for now...lol. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_048_500_vort_ht.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_042_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 00z Euro slightly north through 24h versus 12z at 36h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Also to be honest at this range I trust Will far more than most of the models. He doesn't feel we will see a big wobble, that's good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The 18z GFS and 0z GFS aren't even in the same ballpark at 500. The move that was made was towards the Euro but oddly the QPF and dynamics got worse. That's really the only concern I have. That shift over the lakes JMHO is about as big a swing as you'll ever see the GFS make at this range. The one out over the ocean was predictable due to the factors mentioned earlier. Despite that it did not respond at the surface and that does bug me. Pre-Euro a compromise between the 0z GGEM and 12z Euro ENS seems fine, maybe ratcheted down a smidge for safety for now...lol. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_048_500_vort_ht.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_042_500_vort_ht.gif I just think the Euro QPF might have been off this afternoon. So any moves towards it in the upper levels might be deceptive for QPF implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Also to be honest at this range I trust Will far more than most of the models. He doesn't feel we will see a big wobble, that's good enough for me. Yeah...not to play up the brownie points, but we got some great mets in this forum. From Will to Scott to Ryan to Tip and others in between. DC starting to ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its trying to kick east like 10 miles faster...but it started north...at 36h its still slightly north of 12z, but 12z might be catching up...but this is so close it is likely just wobbles in the 5H low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah...not to play up the brownie points, but we got some great mets in this forum. From Will to Scott to Ryan to Tip and others in between. DC starting to ramp up. models were extremely bullish this eve on their WAA snows for tonite. big time euro hrs 42 and 48 are critical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its trying to kick east like 10 miles faster...but it started north...at 36h its still slightly north of 12z, but 12z might be catching up...but this is so close it is likely just wobbles in the 5H low. I'm on the wrong computer so am not logged in, I feel like I'm watching Dallas to see who shot JR. Thanks for the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Great tilting action to the precip field on national radar. Cool to see. Lot of places are going to snow long and hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Slightly east of 12z by 48h..but almost no difference, we're talking splitting hairs. The ULL trying to escape a shade faster is causing the catch up by 12z. But I think the overall solution is going to be a bit east in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Slightly east of 12z by 48h..but almost no difference, we're talking splitting hairs. The ULL trying to escape a shade faster is causing the catch up by 12z. But I think the overall solution is going to be a bit east in E MA. thanks, ballpark on QPF by then? How's the temp profile this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 interesting that H5 is NW thru 24 hrs then ends up a shade East by 50.....would seem less of a northerly component to ULL movement once it hit's the shore....more progressive ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 interesting that H5 is NW thru 24 hrs then ends up a shade East by 50.....would seem less of a northerly component to ULL movement once it hit's the shore....more progressive ? That'd be about right for this year though. It's pretty consistently tucked the centers too far SW once the m/l's slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Through 60 hours....1" to ORH-GON...BOS about 1.75"...SE MA 2"+, HFD 0.80", PVD 1.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Through 60 hours....1" to ORH-GON...BOS about 1.75"...SE MA 2"+, HFD 0.80", PVS 1.75" Thanks Will. That's pretty much right in line with the earlier Euro ENS if I understand all of you guys correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thanks Will. That's pretty much right in line with the earlier Euro ENS if I understand all of you guys correctly. Yeah it looks similar to the Euro ens except still higher in SE MA. through 72 hours...1" it KGAY-ORH-Old Lyme, CT....BOS-PVD 2"...PYM-TAN-EWB 2.5", BDL 0.80" (HFD/TOL maybe a touch more)...MPM 0.75", ASH-PSM 0.80",...BDR 0.80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 OVerall like the 12z run except maybe a 15 mile jog SE. I figured it would be close...the key is the kicker...the Euro actually started off a bit north of 12z but then tried to escape faster which caused the ever slight move E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is that all snow in SE MA? Do you think someone could pull off 20"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 OVerall like the 12z run except maybe a 15 mile jog SE. I figured it would be close...the key is the kicker...the Euro actually started off a bit north of 12z but then tried to escape faster which caused the ever slight move E. Good call earlier when I asked. That's a normal wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 OVerall like the 12z run except maybe a 15 mile jog SE. I figured it would be close...the key is the kicker...the Euro actually started off a bit north of 12z but then tried to escape faster which caused the ever slight move E. Thanks for the updates Will. Should be interesting to watch it play out... one of the toughest forecasts in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A collective sigh of relief. Thank-you Will Bottom-line: GAME STILL ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thanks Will. Now I guess we have to wait and see which model (and which model run) wins the prize. Why do I think it may be None of them?!! And why do I think 12z tomorrow may paint a very different picture?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its also really cold...easily all snow anywhere NW of the Canal I think..there might be BL issues at times in the PYM-EWB corridor...but just inland its snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is that all snow in SE MA? Do you think someone could pull off 20"? Euro was way too chilly for a few storms this year, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was a little cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its also really cold...easily all snow anywhere NW of the Canal I think..there might be BL issues at times in the PYM-EWB corridor...but just inland its snow. A no commitment question for you, would you now be more inclined to go with higher totals in interior SE MA? At this point I think it's time for 10-20" totals for a lot you guys to my NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Boston/ema totals bumped up tomorrow morning? Considering the euro is so cold, much more than 2" seems likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ortiz has a 3-0 Count! Tomorrow we see if he drives the 2 runs in! Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 that's quite a gradient from KGAY to KBOS not that it's much comparison but 0z btv wrf meso just came in still crushing from like Norwood-weymouth S with epic precip but really cut things off fast once you get N of quincy to waltham line. i hope euro can nail temps this time (BL) but i'd hope it has company (being cold) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Thanks Will. Now I guess we have to wait and see which model (and which model run) wins the prize. Why do I think it may be None of them?!! And why do I think 12z tomorrow may paint a very different picture?! GFS can't really win or lose since it has flip-flopped so much... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Boston/ema totals bumped up tomorrow morning? Considering the euro is so cold, much more than 2" seems likely... I am kind of wondering if there is a significant cut off even just N of bos by like even 10- 15 miles. Will, not to be a pain, but for the N shore crowd and over to 128 what's KBVY or KBED lookin like if you have it near you, otherwise i think we get the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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