March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GGEM is probably 40-50mm here.  I forgot the first panel and couldn't copy..too lazy.  But you get the gist.

 

It's nearly a scraper.  Probably just some rain showers maybe with a few parachutes.

 

 

 

 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

First panel of the GGEM.

 

So in summary every model including the ones that stunk like the UK and GFS (if 1" of QPF stinks) moved towards the old runs of the Euro.  Note I said runs, somewhere between the 0z/12z Euro.

 

Also, both the UK and GFS came off the idea of running out behind the convection.  So that wasn't a bad thought after all. That was indeed a GFS error it appears whether it was driven by convective feedback or some other process who knows. 

[TheSnowman]

And Ortiz (The EURO) is 3 for 4 on the night so far.

[Arnold214]

The GFS has almost always been just horrific in huge storms inside 48 hours...we'll see if this is the case again. It lead the trend in getitng us into the game at 72-96 hours (unusual for the GFS to do that too)...but almost every huge storm it chokes pretty bad inside 48 hours, I'm not sure why. It was the leading guilty culprit in the 2/10/10 bust. It sucked in the blizzard, it was pretty bad in 1/12/11, and it was awful in 2/5/10 even though we were a non-factor in that, it kept hitting NYC hard.....however it did very well in Boxing Day, that was an exception. Led most guidance in that one right up until the start, even showing the nasty dryslot over SNE while the Euro didn't.

We'll see if this is another case where the GFS wins inside of 48 hours, but I'm always going to be skeptical of it until there is good reason not to be.

I would really love to understand all this about the GFS. And it doesn't really matter which model it is, they are generally supposed to get better as T0 nears....especially within 36 hours when u have good sampling. Almost every big system the GFS has choked on in the short-term. Drastic changes are supposed to happen out in the medium-range, not now. Maybe it is leading the way again now, who knows. Even still, the op run and almost all of the ensemble members gave me between an inch and a half and 2 inches of QPF as late as this morning.

[N. OF PIKE]

guys wrt these "fire hose" set ups .....historically how reliable is the model'd area getting hit like that.  esp so far away from the  low.

[ORH_wxman]

I would really love to understand all this about the GFS. And it doesn't really matter which model it is, they are generally supposed to get better as T0 nears....especially within 36 hours. Almost every big system the GFS has choked on in the short-term. Drastic changes are supposed to happen out in the medium-range, not now.

 

 

Yeah I don't get it...its a trait it has been unable to shake going back to when it was the AVN model...I didn't even bring up the god-awful 24-36 hour forecasts in the face of other model guidance in the March 2001 storm, Feb 2003 (PDII) and the January 2005 blizzard. Just bizarre...its like each upgrade tries to make it better but it has that dominant gene that can't be breeded out of it.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 PM EST TUE MAR 05 2013

VALID MAR 06/0000 UTC THRU MAR 09/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY
PREFERENCES/FCST CONFIDENCE...

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z NAM WERE NOT DEEMED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACTS ITS FCST. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS
SEEMS TO MISHANDLE THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACRS SRN FL AS IT COULD
NOT RESOLVE THE GRADIENT IN PWATS FROM TAMPA BAY TO MIAMI.


...STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM THE UPR TN VALLEY TOWARD
THE LWR MID-ATLC OVERNIGHT...
...LOW CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTING NEWRD JUST E OF THE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE/FCST CONFIDENCE: GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE
00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE FIRST 24 HRS (HIGH
CONFIDENCE)...THEREAFTER WILL FAVOR A COMBO OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN (BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE)

A WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE WHICH HAS ALREADY DROPPED ABUNDANT
SNOWFALL FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST DOWN THRU THE UPR GRT
LAKES WILL SLIDE S OF E TOWARD THE LWR MID-ATLC TNGT. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH WINTRY PCPN
EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO WED. THIS
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS FCST TO INDUCE A DEEPENING SFC LOW
WHICH WILL TRACK FROM NC ACRS THE VA CAPES AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO
SEA. THEREAFTER...THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKES IT WAY
TOWARD THE N AND E WITH SOME OF ITS PROGRESS BEING IMPEDED BY A
MID-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE N. OVERALL...THE 00Z/18Z NAM ARE
IN LINE AND JUST AHEAD OF THE 12Z RUN ON WED AS THE SYSTEM
STRADDLES THE NC/VA BORDER. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS IS A HAIR
FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS EARLY ON. AS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS E
OF 70E LONGITUDE...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM SUGGEST THE
CYCLONE WILL NEARLY STALL GIVEN THE BLOCK IN PLACE. ONLY MINIMAL
RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...DIFFERENCES
UPSTREAM LEAD TO THE 00Z GFS BEING FARTHER E THAN THE 18Z/12Z
RUNS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
RELATIVE TO OTHER MODELS. THE 12Z CMC/UKMET ARE WEAKER ALOFT AT
06/1800Z AS THEY LACK A 534-DM HGT CONTOUR AT 500 MB. LATER
ON...THE GUIDANCE IS IN HALF-DECENT AGREEMENT AS THE UPR LOW
STALLS E OF THE 40N/70E BENCHMARK. WHILE THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE
STAYS E OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...THE NWRN EDGE OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION MAY IMPACT THE REGION. IT APPEARS THE 12Z UKMET IS THE
QUICKEST AT PUSHING THIS SYSTEM EWRD WHILE THE 18Z GEFS MEAN/21Z
SREF MEAN ARE OFF TO THE W AS THEY ARE INFLUENCED BY A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM CYCLONE. FOR THE FIRST 24 HRS OF THE
PERIOD...WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE 12Z CMC/UKMET BUT OTHER
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOULD SUFFICE. LATER ON...GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM INFLUENCES OF THE UPR LOW CROSSING THE UPR
MID-ATLC...WILL FAVOR A SOLN SIMILAR TO THAT SYSTEM. THAT IS A
COMBO OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECWMF/ECMWF ENS MEAN.

[Arnold214]

I left work less than 18 hours ago, and the operational GFS and most if not all of the ensemble members Had me getting somewhere between a 10and 20 inch snowstorm. That's pretty unbelievable. I can understand if it was just a small handful of ensemble members doing it. But Almost all of them?

[CT Rain]

I left work less than 18 hours ago, and the operational GFS and most if not all of the ensemble members Had me getting somewhere between a 10and 20 inch snowstorm. That's pretty unbelievable. I can understand if it was just a small handful of ensemble members doing it. But Almost all of them?

 

Pretty embarrassing

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I left work less than 18 hours ago, and the operational GFS and most if not all of the ensemble members Had me getting somewhere between a 10and 20 inch snowstorm. That's pretty unbelievable. I can understand if it was just a small handful of ensemble members doing it. But Almost all of them?

 

I won't lie the GFS scares me.  Once in an epoch it's right.  Then again I think about the blizzard.  It had the "axis" right but it was off by 1/2 or more on the QPF.  If we look at the axis of heaviest right now running out by Will and Ginxy and figure it's way underdone....it's equal to most of the other models.

 

The UKIE...I have no idea how that did with the bigger storms.  The NOGAPs is creeping away too.

 

The unanimous nature of the GFS/GEFS moves is disconcerting but perhaps it shouldn't be, because as you said just 36 hours ago it was a blizzard for you.  The fact that the UK and GFS moved towards the earlier Euro runs is both good, and disconcerting because they're less intense.  Are they seeing something that is wrong with the other models?  I guess we'll know in 50 minutes.

 

NCEP guidance is still problematic.  The BOX forecast is the safe play for tonight, if the 0z Euro comes in somewhere between the old 0z/12z and the ensembles then the accumulations really have to go up.

[TheSnowman]

It's really sad as I've been saying all day. If this storm hits like the EURO, SREF, RPM, etc. indicate, the model that will deserve a statue for the storm is the GFS, But, it left the celebration party way too early.

Wait wait, I've got it - The GFS is like a keen sniffing dog. It sniffs out what you need, and then when you get over to what he wanted to show you, which is interesting, he's moved on to something else. And you call to congratulate him on his find but he's 30 feet away, maybe sniffing something stupid like a Female dogs behind.

[NorEastermass128]

BTW --- OES showers coming onshore in E MA.  I'm cautious about this one with Feb. '10 still fresh in my mind, but boy...I've got a gut feeling that this could be a nice surprise.  

 

Just got to wait for the EURO to run through.  If BOS puts up another 2"+, I'm all in.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It's really sad as I've been saying all day. If this storm hits like the EURO, SREF, RPM, etc. indicate, the model that will deserve a statue for the storm is the GFS, But, it left the celebration party way too early. Wait wait, I've got it - The GFS is like a keen sniffing dog. It sniffs out what you need, and then when you get over to what he wanted to show you, which is interesting, he's moved on to something else. And you call to congratulate him on his find but he's 30 feet away, maybe sniffing something stupid like a Female dogs behind.

 

I still think you have to toss the GFS for now.

 

BTW the NMM and ARW go absolutely insane this run, LOL This is all snow in Boston and Providence.  ARW isn't quite as big but still huge.

[ORH_wxman]

The haves and have nots (for models) show what adifference it makes when we actually get into that firehose...if you are left out, then you are left with mostly junk.

[ROOSTA]

I might be way off on my thinking but just pondering... down time till....

1. Initialization errors?

2. Strength of the block and break-down causing mayhem?

3. Any analog to compare similar and ultimate outcome?   

4. Which global model in the past handled best and was less wrong? 

[N. OF PIKE]

BTW --- OES showers coming onshore in E MA.  I'm cautious about this one with Feb. '10 still fresh in my mind, but boy...I've got a gut feeling that this could be a nice surprise.  

 

Just got to wait for the EURO to run through.  If BOS puts up another 2"+, I'm all in.

ya cautious here as well. Bangor maine 34/32 at this hour , Houlton maine above frz at this hour as well.  And we depending on the NW fringe in a rotted airmass. Yes colder air works in from the NE as it builds down from maine later tommorrow and thursday. But this ocean effect is not snow at mi casa, thats for sure. I stole all scooters caution flags and think this smells fishy as we get closer. Don't mean to be a downer on anyone's snow storm but in my mind where hoping for alot ...

[NorEastermass128]

Uh...it's actually pouring (rain) here right now.  Near freezing, so torched ML's?

[TheSnowman]

I still think you have to toss the GFS for now.

 

BTW the NMM and ARW go absolutely insane this run, LOL This is all snow in Boston and Providence.  ARW isn't quite as big but still huge.

Oh ya. A Quincy, MA bullseye of 50". New Record on this storm.

[ORH_wxman]

Uh...it's actually pouring (rain) here right now.  Near freezing, so torched ML's?

 

 

No, its all forming in the low levels so if its forming at like -4C, then its cold rain or almost borderline ZR.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

What's the thinking on the Euro.  Cave SE, stay mostly the same, or get more amped?

[ORH_wxman]

What's the thinking on the Euro.  Cave SE, stay mostly the same, or get more amped?

 

 

I'm expecting mostly the same...no more than 25 mile shift any direction...granted a 25 mile shift verbatim could mean some large impact for certain areas.

[free_man]

What's the thinking on the Euro.  Cave SE, stay mostly the same, or get more amped?

SE slightly, not a "cave".  it's going to trend east into a SE MA/RI deal more or less, unless it wants to stay wrong until the end.  That's ultimately where this is going.   I'm prepared,  anyway.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm expecting mostly the same...no more than 25 mile shift any direction...granted a 25 mile shift verbatim could mean some large impact for certain areas.

 

Interesting.  I guess me too with the UK/GFS coming towards the older Euro runs aloft.  If anything the guidance would argue for perhaps a bit more amped solution.  The crazy finger on the 0z NAM and the GFS SE tickle is troublesome, but the model is universally discarded so often in favor of the others that I'm not sure it can be worried about.

 

The Euro may shove the stall a little ENE, but we'll see what that ends up doing.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

SE slightly, not a "cave".  it's going to trend east into a SE MA/RI deal more or less, unless it wants to stay wrong until the end.  That's ultimately where this is going.   I'm prepared,  anyway.

 

What's the reasoning?  Just curious.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Euro be rolling.  Can the GFS really be this bad? 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro be rolling.  Can the GFS really be this bad? 

 

 

We already know it can...the question is if it actually does it again.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

We already know it can...the question is if it actually does it again.

 

i'd be a horrible surgeon.  I'd freak out just prior to the first cut every single time.  I hate this 20 minute window. 

 

If the GGEM hadn't just been "upgraded" I wouldn't really be worrying but we've got that factor, the fickle warm finger on the NAM....redflag for some weird error?  NOGAPS/UK/GFS not looking like much. 

 

If the 0z Euro comes in strong then the others just get tossed, but I really have a hard timing factoring how the GFS can move to the Euro but look so terrible.  I've defended the model a ton of times, if it's messing this up that bad...it's really useless.

 

Play by play is all you Will, if you don't mind sharing.

[TheSnowman]

David Ortiz Up to Bat..... Rafael Soriano in to close. Ortiz in the Batters Box.

We have to do more Nowcasting at this time with the radar full down on our DC region friends. A lot we can depict already.

[eduggs]

Ride the Euro. I would honestly completely toss the GFS. Terrible model and I'd feel good about 8-15" in ORH CO. BOS and SE mass too probably.

That could be a rough ride.  Synoptically the 12z Euro doesn't seem all that different to me than the other globals (despite well articulated arguments to the contrary).  I thought QPF was suspiciously high in EMA this afternoon.  That might not be real.  But it would be comforting to hold onto it for another run.  We'll find out shortly.

[N. OF PIKE]

 4km 18z btv wrf meso gives 4.0 qpf to bristol/ w pym counties from S coast up thru norwood. 2.75 to 3 from bos to beverly.

 

that meso did have the fire hose during the day and temps around 35F for a good portion of 128....perhaps 34...which is a light touch milder than earlier 12z....0z should be out shortly. fwiw had large cutoff between 128 and 495 as well.

 

12km version is toned down qpf wise but still mostly east of 495 with most of precip just getting started around dawn on thursday...minus upslope rain/snow showers in orh hils. temps are cooler on this model and they finally tick down below 35 F for first time in 24 hours by thurs dawn when winds go more NNE/N and precip moves in. model spits out 2 qpf from Just N of haverhill down the 128 belt then from Ktan or so SSE to S coast. 2.5 of so marshfield/duxbury.

 

these totals are thru 1am fri so a bit more to go.