Bryan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Kevin Lemanowicz basically on air just said he thinks this whole thing is crap and has a huge gut feeling that it's not going to happen as models are trying to say it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Here's the pickle. This is the old Euro vs the new UK, and the old Euro vs the new NAM. the euro and uk are not terribly different at 48. The NAM is obviously most aggressive and at 48 hours...probably outside the range. We can "see" from the NAM vs older UK/newer UK maps it's trending towards the bigger hit models, it's just not there. IE the UK dug more, and slowed down the rush offshore vs earlier runs. The Euro got more severe this run vs last, the RGEM did, and the NAM did. Are we just seeing the crazy GFS, the slow Uncle catching up?We'll find out I guess with the Euro soon. My sense is the Euro does compromise at least towards its ensembles but that's paying tribute to two models that I don't think have been right with a big snowstorm this winter.We could also look the similarities between the new UK and old euro at 500 and conclude that the Euro had some issue at the surface. But I think you've got to go with the odds and not assume the best model by far that we have inside of 48 hours isn't busting horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Kevin Lemanowicz basically on air just said he thinks this whole thing is crap and has a huge gut feeling that it's not going to happen as models are trying to say it is. Ahhh, but which models? Lol. Some models will be wrong and some will be right...or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ahhh, but which models? Lol. Some models will be wrong and some will be right...or close to it. Was only half listening so maybe some one can post a more detailed decription of what he said, however the gist I took from him was that he just wasn't buying all the moisture the models are projecting but said he's gonna stick with it now and move his large accumulations SE from ORH county towards BOS and South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM is decently N of 12z at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Kevin Lemanowicz @klemanowicz OK, said it on-air now... not convinced of heavy snow for us. Just want ONE model to take this out of here and I would be sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 FWIW, cold winning out in Virginia. KEZF already changed over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM crushes E MA/RI...def better vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM is decently N of 12z at 24 hours. Agreed. It looks good aka not like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think chances are low of getting 8" this far west. But an interesting look at this winter if somehow we get 8" here.. as horrible this winter has been it would be my 4th storm at or over 8".. pretty good year.. first significant snow Nov7th and and last significant snow March 7th would have 120 days in between and 85" for the year.. again if I get 8"+ which is very unlikely.. You have absolutely no right to call this winter horrible! Really??? Horrible!!?? 39" from one storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM crushes E MA/RI...def better vs 12z. I noticed the 00z GFS trended toward the 12z Euro with some bonus snows Friday morning as the Great Lakes shortwave scoots in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I noticed the 00z GFS trended toward the 12z Euro with some bonus snows Friday morning as the Great Lakes shortwave scoots in. GGEM does it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The 4km high res NAM does not warm at 8h. It's a crushing snowstorm. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lets hope the euro goes Ortiz 2004 style again. I have hope but this is a tricky setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM does it too. Yeah. Euro sort of lead the charge on that one and the globals are now on board it appears. That's really why we went sort of bullish with 3-6 for most of the state (6+ for Ginx) thinking we could sneak out 1-3 or something on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 By my math the 4km NAM is 10-20" anyway Boston to Providence to Will to Ginxy roughly. Not sure about me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM does it too. BTW... do you use the GGEM on the WSI site? The color table for the QPF is way off... seems like it's double what the model actually shows or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 By my math the 4km NAM is 10-20" anyway Boston to Providence to Will to Ginxy roughly. Not sure about me. Well to be honest more like 15-22", just eyeballing at 10 to 1. Holds the 0c at 8h right on the coast through 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lets hope the euro goes Ortiz 2004 style again. I have hope but this is a tricky setup. BOS down 1 run, bases loaded and 2 out with Ortiz up and a full count...nowhere to put him. NAM got on base, so did RGEM, and the GGEM but the GFS and Ukie struck out...so 3 on and 2 out and our best hitter up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm tossing everything, going with the 0z UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BTW... do you use the GGEM on the WSI site? The color table for the QPF is way off... seems like it's double what the model actually shows or something? Yeah you have to like halve it...I usually just look at 5H to judge trends...it shows like 3"+ of qpf for BOS, lol...whuch prob means in reality its going to be like 1.5 or 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah you have to like halve it...I usually just look at 5H to judge trends...it shows like 3"+ of qpf for BOS, lol...whuch prob means in reality its going to be like 1.5 or 2" I think it's just wrong... because the gridded data I see at work is always like half. They must have a script wrong or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Color maps are out on the GGEM site anyway now...you can see the firehose smokes E MA and the inverted trough stuff is pretty decent for CT to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BOS down 1 run, bases loaded and 2 out with Ortiz up and a full count...nowhere to put him. NAM got on base, so did RGEM, and the GGEM but the GFS and Ukie struck out...so 3 on and 2 out and our best hitter up. GFS can be like Bellhorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think it's just wrong... because the gridded data I see at work is always like half. They must have a script wrong or something. I'll have to bring it up. Nobody ever looks at it I guess lol. I thought the same, but never really thought much about it since the QPF is sometimes off anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not sure if coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BOS down 1 run, bases loaded and 2 out with Ortiz up and a full count...nowhere to put him. NAM got on base, so did RGEM, and the GGEM but the GFS and Ukie struck out...so 3 on and 2 out and our best hitter up. Wait isn't Ortiz injured right now? Maybe a younger, healthier Ortiz is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'll have to bring it up. Nobody ever looks at it I guess lol. I thought the same, but never really thought much about it since the QPF is sometimes off anyways. Any storm with a tropical connection in the warm season (which is like once every 3 days on the GGEM) drops like 12" of QPF on the WSI maps lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS can be like Bellhorn.That's unfair to Bellhorn.Ggem gives me hope that the Euro wont make a big shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wait isn't Ortiz injured right now? Maybe a younger, healthier Ortiz is up. He's still our best hitter the past couple years, lol...he's supposed to start playing spring training games within the week, but Scott said 2004 Ortiz...back on topic. We'll need our best weather hitter (the Euro) to come through tonight. Very strange to see different models trending totally opposite directions tonight...usually they all trend the same direction albeit different magnitudes, but that is not the case. Not what you would call normal for 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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