ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 00z GFS a bit east from 18z. Yeah a shade, but still very close...not sure it could go any further NW than 18z, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter playbook 2013 to the letter. Gfs does a better job demonstrating a threat....goes way overboard 48-96 hours. Euro begrudgingly moves north, gfs caves. Gfs wins the battle but ultimately loses the war in that the euro delivers the end game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z gfs just a hair south (200 miles) as of hr 54, compared to 12z. ;D That is 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still has our Boston blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There are so many changes on all the models so far ncep diagnostic probably worth a peak. I never remember so many changes on the gfs at. 5h inside or. 6-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still has our Boston blizzard. It's about 30 miles from horrible rates. It's trending se AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There are so many changes on all the models so far ncep diagnostic probably worth a peak. I never remember so many changes on the gfs at. 5h inside or. 6-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Colder and what a shellacking for BOS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not an insignificant shift SE from 18z through 54. .5"+ in SWCT through 54 assuming it's all snow. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah a shade, but still very close...not sure it could go any further NW than 18z, lol. Decent jump east at 60 hours. Wil cut QPF back across a large portion of the region but still a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Damn--east shift screws me--congrats for most of SNE though! Great run for you if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 66 hour Ccb inside 495 but pounding all areas ORH eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 gfs is atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Eh, look how everything is based in that fronto band near and just offshore. Without that, it's rasn. Not a fan of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Eh, look how everything is based in that fronto band near and just offshore. Without that, it's rasn. Not a fan of that. I'm being selfish and cheering anything that gives deep easterly flow and enough moisture to make it matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Eh, look how everything is based in that fronto band near and just offshore. Without that, it's rasn. Not a fan of that. Yeah not a huge surprise that we're starting to see a compromise develop. I'm not a huge fan of the setup... sort of unconventional so there are some issues to be worried about. We'll see though... interesting and fun looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still has our Boston blizzard. Ugh. What we have is the euro theme of earlier sans the meddling s/w that amped this thing up on ncep guidance. So...toss the nam because its not supported by the rgem or gfs with the northern s/w or any previous model. That leaves us with this run of the gfs which is a big shift se. The playbook says this is step 1 of a 3 part road to ruin. Rgem though looks decent, and ultimately it's going to come down to the prince of weenies in the euro. At first glance the rgem looks a lot like the euro to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's about 30 miles from horrible rates. It's trending se AWT. This is the timeframe where I find the GFS least reliable and the EC tends to step up...we'll see what happens with the 00z EC. I see it ticking north but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Uncles a pretty big hit tonight but not for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS cut back by about .25" here, down to 1" from 1.25" comparing 72 to 78. Still a nice storm. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am locking at least another 50 mi., or perhaps more (100+?) s/e trend on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 still get crushed on the GFS, nice run but the trend SE has started, lets see how far it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm being selfish and cheering anything that gives deep easterly flow and enough moisture to make it matter. When it comes to snow, it's every man for himself. I'm out--hopefully things don't continue to go downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 about 25% less qpf than 18z but thats expected.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Uncle pretty much held serve from 12z...perhaps a tick NW. Was hoping to see a larger jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Foot plus of snow and gusts over 50..... Yep I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Uncles a pretty big hit tonight but not for NNE. Can you elaborate on my phone? Gfs is a qpf machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still going to be about 2"+ QPF east of ORH. A lot of Debbies in here, but I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Uncle pretty much held serve from 12z...perhaps a tick NW. Was hoping to see a larger jump. will could u give ORH/BOS qpf ball park for duration, if you have it (ballpark) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is the timeframe where I find the GFS least reliable and the EC tends to step up...we'll see what happens with the 00z EC. I see it ticking north but not much. I don't like that look since the screw potential is so high with that weenie enhancement to the QPF. Unless you are at 1000', you are on the outside looking in without the big lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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