March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

[capecod04]

Are ww looking at 2/10/10 reviaited on gfs??

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I think it's a good idea to toss the NAM lol

good idea, might as well toss the GFS as well. by tomorrow 12z it will shave us down to a coating to an inch.. which is about the seasonal trend besides the blizzard.. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GFS is hideous

 

GFS went well north with the lakes s/w, well south with the s/w off the coast.  It sucks, it's consistency is terrible, but it did move towards the Euro.  Something to watch closely as the Euro comes in but I wouldn't even bat an eyelash if the Euro came in somewhere near the RGEM/NAM, old Euro.

 

The GFS really kind of caved to the Euro type idea, just didn't quite get there.

 

Look at how radically it changed at 500mb between 57 and 69 hours...that's a huge step towards what the Euro had with the total recognition that the Euro is likely to move some too.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Gfs lost the blizzard and continued to move away from it did it not? Has trouble with modeling the big storms etc... But that still sucks to see.

[Bostonseminole]

GFS cracks me up, if EURO holds we are good.

[Zeus]

Ugh that's what I did not want to see.

 

Watch the Euro tug SE with precip at 00z.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

All you guys have done is crap on the GFS for an entire winter...and we're worried about it tonight?  The blizzard rants about how it was underdone are still ringing in my head.

 

 

 

 

[OSUmetstud]

we'll see what the euro shows but it wasn't a good thing to see both the 00z NAM and the GFS show a less robust lakes shortwave which doens't phase in...thus the upper level just got keeps trucking ENE.

[free_man]

Could this be another storm where the system phase-type changes, sort of what happened a few weeks ago?    jmo this will probably come down to a pivoting inverted trough or etc. meso feature to get the job done (verify those already lofty forecasted #s and expectations), it appears.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

my initial forecast was a general 4-8" for the state of CT with locally higher amounts.. if you blend GFS and NAM I think you pretty much get these numbers and that is about what EURO showed at 12z.. So I am sticking with my 4-8" forecast although I would lean to the lighter side west of the river..

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is pretty bad too, though not as bad as the GFS. It was bad at 12z too though....kind of similar.

[CoastalWx]

You can't always count on an ULL 400 miles away to deliver.

[weatherMA]

Ride the Euro. I would honestly completely toss the GFS. Terrible model and I'd feel good about 8-15" in ORH CO. BOS and SE mass too probably.

[ORH_wxman]

It really comes down to the Euro this close in as to whether the GFS trend is a real concern or if its just the GFS being the GFS with its 36 hour tricks.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

we'll see what the euro shows but it wasn't a good thing to see both the 00z NAM and the GFS show a less robust lakes shortwave which doens't phase in...thus the upper level just got keeps trucking ENE.

 

That's pretty much exactly what the earlier Euro showed.  Like I said, the Euro is a moving target too and I understand that, but the GFS just made a huge leap closer to what the Euro was depicting aloft. 

 

12z Euro, 0z GFS and 18z GFS for the same time period.

 

A compromise of the CMC, Euro ENS and even a trimmed down NAM seems fine.  The GFS is the model everyone smashes all winter long until tonight.  The GFS has a steeper approach in the lakes like the earlier Euro and pulled the system further SW (slower than the earlier run offshore) closer to the Euro.

It's just significantly weaker with both systems suddenly. Something that started at 18z, it's either really onto something or it's the GFS doing it's magic.

[CT Rain]

You can't always count on an ULL 400 miles away to deliver.

 

Yeah... let's hope this doesn't become a 1-3 kinda deal lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I think chances are low of getting 8" this far west. But an interesting look at this winter if somehow we get 8" here.. as horrible this winter has been it would be my 4th storm at or over 8".. pretty good year.. first significant snow Nov7th and and last significant snow March 7th would have 120 days in between and 85" for the year.. again if I get 8"+ which is very unlikely.. 

[NorEastermass128]

TWC going 12-18" for western suburbs of BOS.  3-5" as close as Quincy.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Ukie is pretty bad too, though not as bad as the GFS. It was bad at 12z too though....kind of similar.

 

You guys have the advanced tools.  Take a look at the 0z Euro/12z Euro layed over the 0z GFS.   It's pretty much split down the middle of those two. 

[FSUIZZY]

Channel 7 still calling for 2-4 for Boston. 

[weathafella]

Lets get the euro in here to settle this thing..,,

[TalcottWx]

Lets get the euro in here to settle this thing..,,

Hoping for you guys

[ORH_wxman]

You guys have the advanced tools.  Take a look at the 0z Euro/12z Euro layed over the 0z GFS.   It's pretty much split down the middle of those two. 

 

 

The biggest difference I see is the 00z GFS between 36-42, it almost collapses the ULL ESE whereas the 12z Euro really drives it north which smokes E SNE with that firehose. They are quite similar up to that point.

[FSUIZZY]

I think all the models could swing this way and channel 7 would still be 2-4 inches.

[N. OF PIKE]

Watch the Euro tug SE with precip at 00z.

. This storm has huge bust potential. Mid level low position bothers me. Also needing the ull to pull n as it goes negative and then the fujiwara coming together...ya I'm not as bullish thinking of all these factors

[CT Rain]

The biggest difference I see is the 00z GFS between 36-42, it almost collapses the ULL ESE whereas the 12z Euro really drives it north which smokes E SNE with that firehose. They are quite similar up to that point.

 

That's the issue. It effectively keeps the TROWAL/frontogenesis offshore and never is able to scoot it up here. 

 

Not much wiggle room when you're so far north from the ULL. 

 

With the somewhat unusual setup compared to more big SNE storms we're really relying on getting that frontogenesis and low level warm advection to get stuff going. 

[mattb65]

The biggest difference I see is the 00z GFS between 36-42, it almost collapses the ULL ESE whereas the 12z Euro really drives it north which smokes E SNE with that firehose. They are quite similar up to that point.

This is obviously a dramatically different setup but the GFS did something very similar with the blizzard at this range. It kept shunting precip SE and giving an overall meh look all the way until very close range (<24 hr) and even then it was woefully too low with QPF.

 

Just a flag for me regarding the GFS. Who knows maybe it'll be right here but the progressive bias that we've seen with other big storms is certainly a big flag for me.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The biggest difference I see is the 00z GFS between 36-42, it almost collapses the ULL ESE whereas the 12z Euro really drives it north which smokes E SNE with that firehose. They are quite similar up to that point.

 

Will here's another one...value your input.

 

Take a look at the 0z UK vs the 0z NAM below.   The UK has rushed both features each run only to back off.  You can do the copy/paste overlay on the meteocentre site.  This morning the UK was WAY too fast and weak in the north, and too far east in the south.  It adjusted back again so they're "Close" at 24 hours...but off it rushes again very quickly after that with the gap building every 12 hours.  IMO it's probably not right.

 

You can do the same thing on meteocentre to see how much the UK has come off it's 12z idea.  I do believe the GFS and UK are playing catchup the question is how far does the Euro move towards them?

[weathafella]

You have 2 camps. Gfs and ukmet vs euro and cmc. Nam is in punishment.

[ORH_wxman]

This is obviously a dramatically different setup but the GFS did something very similar with the blizzard at this range. It kept shunting precip SE and giving an overall meh look all the way until very close range (<24 hr) and even then it was woefully too low with QPF.

 

Just a flag for me regarding the GFS. Who knows maybe it'll be right here but the progressive bias that we've seen with other big storms is certainly a big flag for me.

 

 

The GFS has almost always been just horrific in huge storms inside 48 hours...we'll see if this is the case again. It lead the trend in getitng us into the game at 72-96 hours (unusual for the GFS to do that too)...but almost every huge storm it chokes pretty bad inside 48 hours, I'm not sure why. It was the leading guilty culprit in the 2/10/10 bust. It sucked in the blizzard, it was pretty bad in 1/12/11, and it was awful in 2/5/10 even though we were a non-factor in that, it kept hitting NYC hard.....however it did very well in Boxing Day, that was an exception. Led most guidance in that one right up until the start, even showing the nasty dryslot over SNE while the Euro didn't.

 

 

We'll see if this is another case where the GFS wins inside of 48 hours, but I'm always going to be skeptical of it until there is good reason not to be.