Ed Lizard Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I like this kind of plot better in Winter. Weird looking forecast sounding off NAM for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 rgem is huge I hope when I say "it's like the Euro" people realize I'm not saying exactly. It's as close as we can ever expect models to be at 48 realizing this is still a moving target on the Euro too...and the euro will have movement in each run. It's very, very similar...firehose is aimed into eastern areas with cold temps. It's a huge, huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NY stuff is further E...it gets engulfed in the SNE stuff like the Euro had. It helps save the CT valley a bit in MA later in the storm...but they are still shadowed big time. The shadowing in the valley is ridiculous on the NAM (although hilarious that it includes Mt. Tolland). While the winds at 850mb are strong out of the east the winds in the boundary layer will be far more northerly. I really don't see shadowing being a huge issue with this down this way - the bigger issue will be the best lift and frontogenesis staying well east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 RGEM shifted well east from 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 link? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What the phuck is up with that sounding. I'm getting some inconsistencies on the FRH grid that doesn't support the synoptic evolution/showing... There are no 900 and 800mb intervals with a temperature that even makes it to 0C, yet the 850mb chart shows the 0C 850 half way to Buffalo. Unless there is an uber thin later between the 900 and 800mb levels, somethings is amiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 RGEM shifted well east from 12z run. You mean west? 12z was pretty far east. I recall saying that it would end up a pretty weak event for even E MA. It def shifted solidly NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 rgem hitting the ivt hard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Well I am completely bi-polar on what to do with this damn thing... 1/2 of me thinks we get a 48 hour Nor'easter with a CCB that makes up climatologically for the fact that we've gone a few years without a bona fide one (though perhaps this season notwithstanding) 1/2 of me thinks there are too many theoretical breakdowns and inconsistencies, and this can't happen this way. I'm completely useless here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm getting some inconsistencies on the FRH grid that doesn't support the synoptic evolution/showing... There are no 900 and 800mb intervals with a temperature that even makes it to 0C, yet the 850mb chart shows the 0C 850 half way to Buffalo. Unless there is an uber thin later between the 900 and 800mb levels, somethings is amiss Yeah peeking at FOUS you'd think nothing like it shows. Nothing ever goes above 0c once it cranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How reliablecis RGEM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 RGEM shifted well east from 12z run. Not based on the 0z 36h map vs the 12z 48 hour maps. It moved NE, towards the Euro, and towards it's 18z forecast. Brings heavier QPF in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks better than 12z. Yeah still not epic, but a lot better than 12z. Prob a pretty big snowstorm, but likely mostly under 12" amounts. But a step toward the Euro...almost catches that trailing s/w but not quite and the front runner escapes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 gfs is going SE compared to the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 rgem play by play is funny, this will be huge, its west, its east, its ok, somewhat ne, probably under 12" amounts.. lol hmm which one is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS is hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS looks pretty crappy again through 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 wow gfs very concerning.. amazing yet again! 24 hours out and drastic differences in models.. NAM has 1.5-1.75" for fairfield county.. gfs .25"... and we are 24 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 wow gfs very concerning.. amazing yet again! 24 hours out and drastic differences in models.. NAM has 1.5-1.75" for fairfield county.. gfs almost nothing.. 24 hours out! I think it's a good idea to toss the NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ugh that's what I did not want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Compare the 12z 48hr RGEM 500mb panel versus the 00z 36hr, clearly east with the closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol GFS is basically a total miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ugh that's what I did not want to see. Yeah. Wow. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yikes, at 18 hours or so before the snow starts, NAM is a foot plus for here, the GFS is some non accumulating flurries. The difference is shocking... The EURO will settle it, but I think the NAM might actually pull a win, the GFS seems totally out to lunch... NAM probably too overdone with the QPF, but the EURO looked more like the NAM than the GFS, so think the 4-6" call by Upton is reasonable pending EURO. Oh well, not staying up to find out what EURO thinks, good luck to all, until the morning, so long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 RIde the Euro........night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Fwiw, not too many impressive numbers in Ohio Valley/Midwest areas so far. Indy was forecasted for 4-6'' snow tapering off and only 2'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ugh...who knew the Blizz would be the easiest storm to forecast this winter? Thinking 4-8" for the Merrimack Valley, 8-12"+ for ORH county, but would most definitely be on the lowest part of those ranges if the GFS verified. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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