weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The nam has pushed 850s to Fairbanks for the last 4 runs and no one else is remotely close. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is really cold at surface for most of western CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 And the trough brings in a round two, pushing 1.5" QPF here at 57. Too bad it's the NAM, but what a beauty! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The nam has pushed 850s to Fairbanks for the last 4 runs and no one else is remotely close. What gives? The sfc temps are in the 20s here while it does that, lol...18" of snow followed by pellets and an ice storm? NAM is a fun model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rollo what's your forecast for your area? You put so many good thoughtful posts here, just curious what your personal forecast would be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rollo what's your forecast for your area? You put so many good thoughtful posts here, just curious what your personal forecast would be... A top 3 snowstorm for BOS/PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The sfc temps are in the 20s here while it does that, lol...18" of snow followed by pellets and an ice storm? NAM is a fun model. Well at least we'll see a big number in the met...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The nam has pushed 850s to Fairbanks for the last 4 runs and no one else is remotely close. What gives? I don't know. When you overlay the 0z NAM vs the 12z Eur on wunder the only real difference is the Euro pinched off the ULL a smidge NW of the NAM (Nam has a kink there though) and the Euro/GFS are faster with the s/w energy diving down. The NAM is speeding up each run. But I cannot explain it, weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The nam has pushed 850s to Fairbanks for the last 4 runs and no one else is remotely close. What gives? Warm easterly flow? So weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lock this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A top 3 snowstorm for BOS/PVD. Can I elect Kevin to measure? And shouldn't this be in the banter thread boss man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If I get a top 3 snowstorm, I'll give Rollo my degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I kind of think the models don't know whether to sh*t or go blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ORH sounding while the 850 0C line is west of Mitch in W MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 IVT cranking, 850s still east......1.5 qpf, epic run out this way, too bad its the nam, but absolutely beautiful to look at just wow. Rates are still pretty meh. That worries me. Never really gets much above 0.15 inches per 3 hours. I'd much rather see a big 3-6 hour thump bookended by weaker stuff. NAM is really cold at surface for most of western CT It is. I think the "warm surface" "March sun angle" kind of stuff is overdone. For most of the event the issue will be weak/meager lift back this way not producing a whole hell of a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What the phuck is up with that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rates are still pretty meh. That worries me. Never really gets much above 0.15 inches per 3 hours. I'd much rather see a big 3-6 hour thump bookended by weaker stuff. It is. I think the "warm surface" "March sun angle" kind of stuff is overdone. For most of the event the issue will be weak/meager lift back this way not producing a whole hell of a lot. True I think we will nowcast tomorrow night.. A 12 hour window between 7pm-7am If we get some good bands coming through then we will cash in.. but really only a 12 hour window for accumulating snows.. the rest of the storm is all irrelevant.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 True I think we will nowcast tomorrow night.. A 12 hour window between 7pm-7am If we get some good bands coming through then we will cash in.. but really only a 12 hour window for accumulating snows.. the rest of the storm is all irrelevant.. Yeah... with snow on the ground... I could even see a window of accumulating snow during the day Thursday as well. Long duration and low impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rates are still pretty meh. That worries me. Never really gets much above 0.15 inches per 3 hours. I'd much rather see a big 3-6 hour thump bookended by weaker stuff. It is. I think the "warm surface" "March sun angle" kind of stuff is overdone. For most of the event the issue will be weak/meager lift back this way not producing a whole hell of a lot. That's .3 per 6 hours, which I think should do it. With this type of heavy, wet snow, I think 1/2" per hour should be enough to stick, and, atleast for here, I think it's cold enough to not melt on the ground. Slow accumulation, but accumulation none the less. You're the pro though, and know far more than I do though... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If I get a top 3 snowstorm, I'll give Rollo my degree. You can keep it, if I wanted one I'd have gotten it already! I said a moderate confidence and amended after looking at the top 10 totals. HPC roughly the I95 corridor/just west in the 20-40% range for 18+. That's about 18" more than most of you guys were thinking were even possible when you were desperately hugging the Euro and bashing the storm idea. When everyone was smashing the GFS storm we were bear hugging the Euro below. PF, I'd forecast what NOAA is forecasting. That's all that is necessary at this point in time as it's significant enough to take notice and make preparations given the winds, wet snow potential and seas. If the 0z Euro comes in anywhere near the earlier run I'd probably double what NOAA has at least from Boston to PVD (my old stomping grounds) and towards Will and down to Ginxy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Regardless, that was fun and probably a best case scenario for western sections but, its the NAm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ryan Will Scooter are those sounding pellets once 850 moves west, warm layer looks narrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I get snizzle followed by glorified inverted trough ZR/IP. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ryan Will Scooter are those sounding pellets once 850 moves west, warm layer looks narrow? It could be rimed flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 DC on the doorstep and looking good to me. 6-10 conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just noticed box radar already picking up some light returns heading in off the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's .3 per 6 hours, which I think should do it. With this type of heavy, wet snow, I think 1/2" per hour should be enough to stick, and, atleast for here, I think it's cold enough to not melt on the ground. Slow accumulation, but accumulation none the less. You're the pro though, and know far more than I do though... -skisheep Well it's not just whether or not it accumulates it's whether or not it occurs. The precipitation back this way, within an area of weaker lift from a a myriad of forcing mechanisms, may be more spotty/banded/or just not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What the phuck is up with that sounding. Its called "The NAM" Probably the best explanation. Its so cold at 900mb that the low level lift might produce crappy flakes below the warm layer, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks like oes heading in from coastal Essex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wonder if some will get a coating or a little more later tonight into tomorrow before the main batch, maybe orh hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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