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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

I'm sure it's been asked but I just got home. Why no watches for okx, they have southern CT at 7-11" of snow and only new London in watch?!

I'm really not sure to be honest, for here I understand since they only have 4-6", but the other 2 counties should be in the watch.

 

Upton's new map looks much more reasonable, 4-6" seems like a reasonable call, that's pretty close to the EURO solution. I think it ticks up a bit after 0z corresponding to a slight increase in QPF by the EURO, and so we probably see a high end advisory maybe they throw us in the warning for the hell of it kind of event. Eastern areas are going to get another bomb though, pictures should be beautiful!

 

Tossing the 18z GFS, it's been torn apart in this thread as to why it's probably bogus. Blending EURO/EURO ens/RGEM/NAM/SREFS.

 

-skisheep

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

I've narrowed it down to 1-25" ;)

 

Looks to be a quirky sort of pattern where a few places could see 10-15" and many could see 3-6" not that many in the middle of the range, guessing the max would be more south and west of BOS towards PVD. If this would recurve even moderately, then whammo you're in for a 15-25" region-wide event (south of s VT to central ME at least) but if it keeps chugging due east or a touch ESE then you have to get these rotating bands to hit and sustain. Anyway, will toss out these numbers with the caveat that they are hunchcasts after looking at all guidance and not feeling that informed by it.

 

BOS 5.5"

PVD 4.5"

CHH: 7.5"

BDL: 3.0"

BDR: 3.3"

ISP: 4.0"

ORH: 5.5"

CON 2.5"

PWM 3.5"

BGR: 2.7"

 

heaviest falls 20 n.e. PVD to 20 s.w. BOS max 12"

 

no live animals were hurt in the posting of this forecast.

 

In percentage terms just for BOS as an example, I would say

 

10% chance 15.0 +

20% chance 8-15

40% chance 4-8

20% chance 2-4

10% chance < 2"

 

As for mixing issues, there again, would expect my snow to validate as about two-thirds of actual precip with some sleety mix especially in ISP, PVD, CHH and BOS. So this may become partly an elevation-based snowfall event with 300 ft asl a significant limit above which mostly snow therefore 50% heavier amounts without the mixing.

 

Good luck, hope it overperforms.

 

(NYC 4" PHL 7" BWI 4" DC 2-3" west of there 15-25")

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Cooler but 850 to 128 at 42 hours. Pretty good shellacking though.

 

I don't know what others were talking about.  It's actually a tick NW with the ULL vs the Euro, otherwise as close as you'll ever see those two at 36 hours and NOTHIGN like the GFS run.

 

It'll be right within the forecast range given by NOAA, and right in the middle of the consensus prior to this run.  It's a good thing there were no major breaks either way.  If anything it nodded towards the Euro.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

NAM is beautiful here, close to an inch of liquid all snow through thursday morning, and hopefully if the trough shows up it's more thursday night.

 

Local mets are mostly 3-6" here, except for CBS 2 which is 6-12", most BOS stations seem to be 3-6/4-8", but they really are not for this viewing area, and probably are mostly inaccurate.

-skisheep

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

I'm really not sure to be honest, for here I understand since they only have 4-6", but the other 2 counties should be in the watch.

 

Upton's new map looks much more reasonable, 4-6" seems like a reasonable call, that's pretty close to the EURO solution. I think it ticks up a bit after 0z corresponding to a slight increase in QPF by the EURO, and so we probably see a high end advisory maybe they throw us in the warning for the hell of it kind of event. Eastern areas are going to get another bomb though, pictures should be beautiful!

 

Tossing the 18z GFS, it's been torn apart in this thread as to why it's probably bogus. Blending EURO/EURO ens/RGEM/NAM/SREFS.

 

-skisheep

 

OKX says low confidence, therefore no watch for now.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

OKX says low confidence, therefore no watch for now.

I guess that's reasonable, I have low confidence, that's for sure! I think 0z is going to have to take a major step towards resolving this, the EURO probably comes NW a bit, the NAM already went SE a bit, and the end result is a 6-8" deal. GFS is out to lunch, and who knows when it will be back in.

-skisheep

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I don't know what others were talking about.  It's actually a tick NW with the ULL vs the Euro, otherwise as close as you'll ever see those two at 36 hours and NOTHIGN like the GFS run.

 

It'll be right within the forecast range given by NOAA, and right in the middle of the consensus prior to this run.  It's a good thing there were no major breaks either way.  If anything it nodded towards the Euro.

 

 

Its SE with the ULL compared to the 18z NAM...that was when I was saying it is SE...just toggle them, its clearly SE. Still a great hit, but no mistaking that it came SE a bit. Not that I am going to base any forecast on the NAM at this point.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Its SE with the ULL compared to the 18z NAM...that was when I was saying it is SE...just toggle them, its clearly SE. Still a great hit, but no mistaking that it came SE a bit. Not that I am going to base any forecast on the NAMat this point.

Like a box of chocolates,,,,you never know what you're going to get.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

That warm layer at 850 is really weird looking with how sharp and narrow it is...here is the BOS sounding at 42 hourswhere it looks like the 850 0C line is several miles west of them

 

 

Look how cold the sounding is overall other than the narrow 850 layer

 

 

130306023102.gif

 

 

 

It looks a lot more like a sounding you would see in a SWFE rather than an easterly flow coastal.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Its SE with the ULL compared to the 18z NAM...that was when I was saying it is SE...just toggle them, its clearly SE. Still a great hit, but no mistaking that it came SE a bit. Not that I am going to base any forecast on the NAM at this point.

 

Gotcha thanks for the explanation.

 

I'm kind of comparing everything around the Euro and against the GFS.  I'm happy it's more like the Euro.  When you compare the 0z NAM at 36 hours to the earlier Euro and 18z GFS runs, there are very minor differences at 36 hours vs 48 on the Euro..within the what we expect from guidance.  The outlier there is the GFS which is just leagues further ENE with the ULL vs the 0z NAM and 12z Euro (and all the other guidance at 18z) Of course we should still expect some change and we will see change but that's a pretty epic nod to the Euro thinking.

 

I guess I'm saying the same thing as you.  I'm happy the NAM is close to the Euro.  I'm not going to base a forecast off of it.

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