Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Qpf?? Pretty good through 24 hours ending at Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just a dream run here, this will be well over an inch all snow here, probably best case scenario for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 hate to say it, but ..wagons east. comparing 12z vs 00z 5h and sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Qpf?? Through 36 it looks like an 1" in Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm sure it's been asked but I just got home. Why no watches for okx, they have southern CT at 7-11" of snow and only new London in watch?! I'm really not sure to be honest, for here I understand since they only have 4-6", but the other 2 counties should be in the watch. Upton's new map looks much more reasonable, 4-6" seems like a reasonable call, that's pretty close to the EURO solution. I think it ticks up a bit after 0z corresponding to a slight increase in QPF by the EURO, and so we probably see a high end advisory maybe they throw us in the warning for the hell of it kind of event. Eastern areas are going to get another bomb though, pictures should be beautiful! Tossing the 18z GFS, it's been torn apart in this thread as to why it's probably bogus. Blending EURO/EURO ens/RGEM/NAM/SREFS. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM throws 1-1.5" qpf 95 east from about 5pm wednesday to 7am thursday.. which would all be when sun is down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is a solid hit. SREFs snow probs love mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Cooler but 850 to 128 at 42 hours. Pretty good shellacking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I've narrowed it down to 1-25" Looks to be a quirky sort of pattern where a few places could see 10-15" and many could see 3-6" not that many in the middle of the range, guessing the max would be more south and west of BOS towards PVD. If this would recurve even moderately, then whammo you're in for a 15-25" region-wide event (south of s VT to central ME at least) but if it keeps chugging due east or a touch ESE then you have to get these rotating bands to hit and sustain. Anyway, will toss out these numbers with the caveat that they are hunchcasts after looking at all guidance and not feeling that informed by it. BOS 5.5" PVD 4.5" CHH: 7.5" BDL: 3.0" BDR: 3.3" ISP: 4.0" ORH: 5.5" CON 2.5" PWM 3.5" BGR: 2.7" heaviest falls 20 n.e. PVD to 20 s.w. BOS max 12" no live animals were hurt in the posting of this forecast. In percentage terms just for BOS as an example, I would say 10% chance 15.0 + 20% chance 8-15 40% chance 4-8 20% chance 2-4 10% chance < 2" As for mixing issues, there again, would expect my snow to validate as about two-thirds of actual precip with some sleety mix especially in ISP, PVD, CHH and BOS. So this may become partly an elevation-based snowfall event with 300 ft asl a significant limit above which mostly snow therefore 50% heavier amounts without the mixing. Good luck, hope it overperforms. (NYC 4" PHL 7" BWI 4" DC 2-3" west of there 15-25") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM throws 1-1.5" qpf 95 east from about 5pm wednesday to 7am thursday.. which would all be when sun is down.. Is that the time table for the bulk of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looks like BOS is starting to mix with pellets at 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 1.5 to about BOS by 18z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's actually quite a bit angrier up here compared to any other run. How did you manage to edit that so quickly! Up over 1.5" by 15z Thur for S Bristol/Pym counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I would say NAM supports a good 5-10" for southern and Eastern CT this run.. Maybe more east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Cooler but 850 to 128 at 42 hours. Pretty good shellacking though. I don't know what others were talking about. It's actually a tick NW with the ULL vs the Euro, otherwise as close as you'll ever see those two at 36 hours and NOTHIGN like the GFS run. It'll be right within the forecast range given by NOAA, and right in the middle of the consensus prior to this run. It's a good thing there were no major breaks either way. If anything it nodded towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is that the time table for the bulk of precip? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is beautiful here, close to an inch of liquid all snow through thursday morning, and hopefully if the trough shows up it's more thursday night. Local mets are mostly 3-6" here, except for CBS 2 which is 6-12", most BOS stations seem to be 3-6/4-8", but they really are not for this viewing area, and probably are mostly inaccurate. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm really not sure to be honest, for here I understand since they only have 4-6", but the other 2 counties should be in the watch. Upton's new map looks much more reasonable, 4-6" seems like a reasonable call, that's pretty close to the EURO solution. I think it ticks up a bit after 0z corresponding to a slight increase in QPF by the EURO, and so we probably see a high end advisory maybe they throw us in the warning for the hell of it kind of event. Eastern areas are going to get another bomb though, pictures should be beautiful! Tossing the 18z GFS, it's been torn apart in this thread as to why it's probably bogus. Blending EURO/EURO ens/RGEM/NAM/SREFS. -skisheep OKX says low confidence, therefore no watch for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Cant be a 14 hour storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I would say NAM supports a good 5-10" for southern and Eastern CT this run.. Maybe more east.. Solid warning criteria for here, and potentially more if the trough shows up. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM still on the warm side of guidance right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 As warm as it is at 850, it continues to trend cooler. 925 stays subfreezing so it is possible that were snowing with those 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 OKX says low confidence, therefore no watch for now. I guess that's reasonable, I have low confidence, that's for sure! I think 0z is going to have to take a major step towards resolving this, the EURO probably comes NW a bit, the NAM already went SE a bit, and the end result is a 6-8" deal. GFS is out to lunch, and who knows when it will be back in. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't know what others were talking about. It's actually a tick NW with the ULL vs the Euro, otherwise as close as you'll ever see those two at 36 hours and NOTHIGN like the GFS run. It'll be right within the forecast range given by NOAA, and right in the middle of the consensus prior to this run. It's a good thing there were no major breaks either way. If anything it nodded towards the Euro. Its SE with the ULL compared to the 18z NAM...that was when I was saying it is SE...just toggle them, its clearly SE. Still a great hit, but no mistaking that it came SE a bit. Not that I am going to base any forecast on the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow gets close at 42 here then 850s push east again .... Better snows again at 48 what a run!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Guess we are Compromising meh.. 6''-12'' nice way to end things. Wish my last East Coast snowstorm could have been a KU but its been a great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its SE with the ULL compared to the 18z NAM...that was when I was saying it is SE...just toggle them, its clearly SE. Still a great hit, but no mistaking that it came SE a bit. Not that I am going to base any forecast on the NAMat this point. Like a box of chocolates,,,,you never know what you're going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That warm layer at 850 is really weird looking with how sharp and narrow it is...here is the BOS sounding at 42 hourswhere it looks like the 850 0C line is several miles west of them Look how cold the sounding is overall other than the narrow 850 layer It looks a lot more like a sounding you would see in a SWFE rather than an easterly flow coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Its SE with the ULL compared to the 18z NAM...that was when I was saying it is SE...just toggle them, its clearly SE. Still a great hit, but no mistaking that it came SE a bit. Not that I am going to base any forecast on the NAM at this point. Gotcha thanks for the explanation. I'm kind of comparing everything around the Euro and against the GFS. I'm happy it's more like the Euro. When you compare the 0z NAM at 36 hours to the earlier Euro and 18z GFS runs, there are very minor differences at 36 hours vs 48 on the Euro..within the what we expect from guidance. The outlier there is the GFS which is just leagues further ENE with the ULL vs the 0z NAM and 12z Euro (and all the other guidance at 18z) Of course we should still expect some change and we will see change but that's a pretty epic nod to the Euro thinking. I guess I'm saying the same thing as you. I'm happy the NAM is close to the Euro. I'm not going to base a forecast off of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 IVT cranking, 850s still east......1.5 qpf, epic run out this way, too bad its the nam, but absolutely beautiful to look at just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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