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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

eduggs to be clear....this is just my opinion.  I respect yours and always have.  I'm just laying it out, I could be totally wrong but it's at that point in time where we need to have opinions.  All the yelling I did about TV mets the last 12 hours would be kind of empty if I wasn't going to say what I thought was right/wrong and instead took a full compromise.  The GFS and UK are very suspect to me.

I love that you have an opinion and you articulate and defend it.  You look at the info and make a call, regardless of consensus.  Awesome.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
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Of course they're minor.  The net net is the GFS at 18z is like 1.5" of QPF and the Euro is 2".  But those minor differences have a huge impact later.  The GFS runs a stripe of enormous QPF along the eventual track of the dog eared 500mb structure.  It's alone in doing that, it's a typical GFS thing.  I think it's wrong.

 

Is there a single event where the GFS has been right inside of 48 hours this winter?  It wasn't with the blizzard.  It stunk with all the scrapers in that range.  The NAM had 1 or 2 coups.  The Euro was right most of the time inside of 48 hours.

 

That said the Euro has had a tendency to park things too far west and southwest.  So, a compromise is in order for now.

 

You can do whatever you'd like with the GFS and I appreciate your opinion, I'm tossing it.   I've been pretty clear for at least 2 days on what I felt and when, riding some models when I felt they had a reasonable solution, others at a later time.  I'll take an 18z RGEM, 18z NAM, 12z Euro/ENS, CMC compromise over anything the GFS has unless it's a retrospective look at what has fallen.

Fair enough.  But I just don't see how we can pick and choose between models and features, especially when they are not too far off.  When the difference between the 0z and 12z cycles exceeds the intermodel difference, I don't believe we can rely on any particular model run.  That doesn't make practical or statistical sense to me.  I would blend the GFS/Euro/ensembles aloft and use the lighter QPF in every region.  I want no part of the NAM/SREF.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I love that you have an opinion and you articulate and defend it.  You look at the info and make a call, regardless of consensus.  Awesome.

 

And I have no problems admitting when I'm wrong which I may be...I totally get what you're saying about not tossing things.    I'm trying to be consistent in believing it's time to kind of take a stand right or wrong vs waiting for all the guidance to agree and the flakes to be falling or the sun shining.

 

I was doing up this map while you were putting this up.  Weenie 101, but it's interesting and so others can have a clue wtf I'm talking about as I know I use too many prepositions.   The little appendage at 500mb all the models have as the ULL is a spinning top bomb.  The thing with the UKIE and GFS is they then take that and really almost carry a distinct vortmax that rotates around the parent ULL like the moon around the earth.  Weird.  We have a pre-fujiwhara in a sense.  Remember the GFS was very aggressive with a s/w closing off over us about now which turned out to be more of an elongated arm of vorticity, not a distinct closed feature (so it's had some tendency to do this).

 

These three maps show the GFS as it emerges off the coast, arrow pointing to the "arm", about 12 hours later it's rotated all the way around the main ULL and is in itself a distinct swirl.  It interacts with the parent ULL, slinging it north as they dance around one another so the stall point is further N/NE than every other model aside of the UKIE. 

 

Given the convection that runs along the path of this arm and the GFS recent experience overdoing an almost identical feature over NE right now (that's why it had the bomb so far NW for so many runs in error) I think we can toss it.  But...like I said, it could also be the random hole in one it shoots.

 

As far as why not blend the Euro/GFS...it's too late for that and there's probably no need.  One is right, one is wrong.  I'm not going to blend the GFS if I think it's choking.  There's enough support of the rough idea behind the 12z Euro to justify a general blend of it (or I should say chiefly it's lighter Ensembles) with the CMC from 12z.  that's the approach NCEP took, and I think it makes sense.  I expect changes with the 0z as the situation is so dynamic and it'll take this run for me to be convinced the Euro isn't going to do the shift it's done in prior storms with the stall point.  40% 12z Euro Ens, 40% 12z GGEM, 20% everything else excluding the GFS/UKIE.

post-3232-0-16941800-1362531779_thumb.jp

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Aways been the elephant in the room. That's why dynamics or bust.

i don't think i could go higher than 8 inches w/ confidence on this one anywhere at the moment.

 

as ryan pointed out , this fuji wuji wara has high bust potential.

 

Now is this storm in 2 shots for us....WAA then fire hose or how does it play out

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Pickles, posted this the other day when you asked http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/NAM/

yes i know u did, thanks for reposting

 

the nose of that 5! S.D 850 inflow tickles E MA from thur am into the Pm on 12z gefs too bad didn't have euro numbers

 

the 250 inflow back'd off a bit from what i recall yesterday.  on GFS more like 2.5 to 3.25 or so still not too shabby

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RobbieL241

RobbieL241

Posted
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Such a large gaping hole on the advisory map.  Almost wonder if OKX and BOX should have gone with impact-based watches for the time being just to get the word out. Makes it more confusing for the general public that might see their local met put 6-12 for their area but have the NWS put up only 2-4. Plus with the model trends I don't see why they couldn't have gone that way.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

HPC graphics have the low basically tracking from just E of delmarva 18z wed Due East till Thur 12z then NE 12z thurs till 0z fri (i know there's alot more goin on with the storm then this....but how do such hvy dynamics get so far N of the 12z thurs HPC low position. (at that time) the low is at 36.5/70 W

 

HPC says they favor the EURO/UKMET/CMC/EURO ENS blend for track (more offshore)

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Another one from the 0z. What a bowling ball. Fantasy land for the rap. Definitely more prominent energy lagging that the more consolidated 18z nam but overall somewhere in the middle

I'm on precor. Bored before the nam. If anything rap looks pretty mean but the elongated nature of the ULL makes me wonder if the models that wobbled (gfs/uk) maybe were onto a little something

Edit looking at the 18h rap I may be wrong above. It's fantasy land for the rap but there's at least a compromise brewing there maybe

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=ruc%2F00%2Fruc_namer_015_500_vort_ht.gif

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

scooter what are you latest flags that are flapping hardest

I think the same flags most have. How much QPF makes it into our area which is precariously governed by any little wobble with the ULL and also the s/w swooping in from the lakes and trying to phase.

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

I'm sure it's been asked but I just got home. Why no watches for okx, they have southern CT at 7-11" of snow and only new London in watch?!

According to OKX, low confidence of reaching 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 inches in 24 hours except New London County where they have "moderate confidence."

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