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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

eduggs to be clear....this is just my opinion.  I respect yours and always have.  I'm just laying it out, I could be totally wrong but it's at that point in time where we need to have opinions.  All the yelling I did about TV mets the last 12 hours would be kind of empty if I wasn't going to say what I thought was right/wrong and instead took a full compromise.  The GFS and UK are very suspect to me.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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You can also use the meteocentre site to illustrate the point.  There you can overlay the 18z RGEM at 42 hrs vs the 12z Euro at 48 and the 2 gfs runs.

 

In that you will see the 18z RGEM and 12z Euro are as close as you'll get at 48 hours and really the 18z NAM (look at the surface maps, look mainly at the blue circle for the 500mb low offshore etc).  The GFS in lala land to the north.

 

I'll take the 18z NAM, 18z RGEM that agree with the 12z Euro any day of the week over the usually craptastic GFS.   The GFS is the parakeet you send into the tunnel to see if the air is good.  If it flies back out the coast is clear.  It flew back out 2 days ago so we knew the storm was real.  JMHO it just killed the parakeet.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=18&stn=PNM&hh=042&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en

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FSUIZZY

FSUIZZY

Posted
Posted

It is really odd that almost all of the TV meteorologist feel this will be a miss/low hit for Eastern Mass. Am I missing something with the models? Maybe we have been wishcasting over here? Or maybe they being the TV Mets are going to go down with the ship? Which is it? If the TV Mets are going down with the ship and being stubborn, they are huge disservice to the viewing public.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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It is really odd that almost all of the TV meteorologist feel this will be a miss/low hit for Eastern Mass. Am I missing something with the models? Maybe we have been wishcasting over here? Or maybe they being the TV Mets are going to go down with the ship? Which is it? If the TV Mets are going down with the ship and being stubborn, they are huge disservice to the viewing public.

fSUizzy they are being cautious! if models stay the course...they will increase their amounts. Dont take their amounts as gospel. I'd refer to the HPC and BOX snowfall maps for best guesses.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Eduggs and others.  Here's why I'm tossing the GFS and really the UK although if my thoughts are wrong I'm not going to ride the wrong models into the sunset after the 0z.  If I'm wrong on this I'm going to bust horribly and we'll see quickly with the RGEM and NAM imo if I'm right or wrong on this.   If this isn't a convective process influencing these two models but rather a real feature the 0z runs would end up fugly, but I don't think that's the case at all.

 

The 18z RGEM, 18z NAM, 12z Euro are all in very close proximity at 500mb at 42 hours.  As close as we'll get.  Their outcomes are similar at the surface and more importantly on the rulers.  There's one outlier here, the GFS which is north at both 12z and 18z.  This is after it was west, then SE earlier.  The UKMET is even further SE and as many of you know, it was not very exciting at 12z.  in fact the UKMET never really even slows down it just goes off into the sunset.

 

SO I look at why these things may happen.  I know the 12z Euro may be overdone based on this year.  Those were different situations though but even still I know the 12z Euro at 48 hours isn't going to be perfect so I expect changes.  Especially in a band of snow that's only 125 miles wide!

 

Anyway, I wonder why the UK barely slows the low.  And then I look at the GFS which is more and more similar at 18z to the 12z UKIE.  Notice on the 12zUK and 12z GFS at 30 hours, both have an enormous QPF blob offshore.  Yes, I'm aware all the models have a complex out there, but JMHO I believe this is where the runaway m/l low comes from, the latent heat release aka feedback.  This is a known vulnerability of the GFS and in fact HPC already noticed many convective blobs in the last heavy snow discussion (prior to this one).  The UK, otherwise known as crazy uncle, also has these issues and is probably why I rarely follow it.  That said they could both be right and I could be wrong, but I think they're not correct and are suffering from some form of convective process or just stink, one or the other.

 

As a result by 42 hours the models place the 500mb low differently with the 18z RGEM, 18z NAM, 12z Euro and ensembles all in one general area and the UK/GFS off faster probably due to reasons above.  This isn't the classic feedback we discussed in the 90s where a feature pops at 500mb that wasn't there.  If I'm right these two models are rocketing the energy along the path of the earlier convection to their error.  OR the opposite is possible, the GFS and UK are schooling the other models and me.  Who knows.


Again, I may be wrong.

 

Pictured: (sorry animated gifs are still not working, hopefully when the year 2000 rolls around we'll get those back)

 

12z UK and 12z GFS at 30 hours showing the developed QPF Bomb.

 

18z GFS at 42 hours, 12z Euro at 48 hours, 18z RGEM/NAM, surface and 500mb depictions.  Notice the GFS is further NE by quite a bit.

post-3232-0-45957100-1362528801_thumb.jp

post-3232-0-43248600-1362528853_thumb.jp

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

21z RPM has an absolute firehose into E MA/RI...it has Bob's area around TAN over 30 inches through 00z Thursday evening, lol.

While likely overdone..i think there's some merit to some really high totals.. We're seeing hints of it from more than one model source. I don't think those amounts will be near Taunton..but some of the ORH hills could exceed 18-22 inches..maybe even NW RI

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Pedestrian Will. 

 

I'm thinking we may have a pretty prolific 0z run, but it'll be interesting to see where the banding is favored.

ya if models stay the course WRT to NON UKIE solutions...than this comes down to a now cast really and radar watching.  Where does that firehose unload. There will be sharp cutoffs and many fits.

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

Why is the shaddow affect of the CRV so pronounced on  the models.. I realize the setup is different, but during the Feb 8 blizzard, the Valley jackpotted... Why is it getting the shaft on this one?

Feb 8/9 had northerly flow which prevented shadowing and possibly enhanced precipitation in the valley due to convergence of wind vectors. This storm has more of an east northeasterly flow, at least initially.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

SPC meso scale analysis shows relatively Mild air over S canada -4 C to -5c  850 temps N of NY/VT/NH/MAINE

 

925's mild into canada as well. 

 

you can see some colder 850's NNE of maine get advected into NNE/(maine) and then are sorta used as cold source funneling in on NE winds

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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ya if models stay the course WRT to NON UKIE solutions...than this comes down to a now cast really and radar watching.  Where does that firehose unload. There will be sharp cutoffs and many fits.

 

I'm 100% convinced the differences between the UK/GFS less exciting camp and the Wild Ones is related to the convection that fires. 

 

The two camps shed off an arm of vorticity is the best way of describing it but the GFS during the 3 or so hours after the QPF bomb and in the wake of the QPF bomb develops almost a distinct small feature that rotates all the way up to the BM and actually fujiwhara's the existing ULL itself...tossing everything north of the other models when it stalls.   That then sets the stage for a bit less exciting solution. No doubt it has a ripple effect too.

 

The Euro and others do not do that, they spin the main ULL off the coast with just an arm of vorticity that rotates around that has no influence on the movement of the parent ULL - no fujiwhara'ng itself....with it lagging a bit from the GFS/UK camp so it's closer by the time the lakes energy dives down.

 

Loop at 500mb and you'll see what I mean.  It's the clear difference between the two camps, if the GFS is right we're going to see less interesting solutions going forward, if the other models are more right probably a pretty historic event.  This may a classic case of the GFS literally playing with itself OR it'll be a case when me doing so would have been more productive than the time spent typing these last two messages, we'll see soon. ha.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=18&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht

 

 

 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

SPC meso scale analysis shows relatively Mild air over S canada -4 C to -5c  850 temps N of NY/VT/NH/MAINE

 

925's mild into canada as well. 

 

you can see some colder 850's NNE of maine get advected into NNE/(maine) and then are sorta used as cold source funneling in on NE winds

Aways been the elephant in the room. That's why dynamics or bust.

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