March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III

[eduggs]

The 18z GFS looks very similar to 12z.  And fairy reasonable IMO.  Offshore track, highest QPF near the eastern shore, modest enhancement back to the west with northern stream trof.  Nothing insane.

[capecod04]

Did channel 7 make the GFS map? Lol

[Tropopause_Fold]

Does "east" mean from Rhode Island eastward?

it just keeps the low and mid-level warmth pretty much offshore of SNE entirely. doesn't have the westward flood that it has shown recently. euro is similar in that regard.

[weatherMA]

Can anyone explain what models are still showing only 3" on the coast? Channel 4 and 7 are both thinking rain is a big threat in Boston. Channel 5 is thinking more of a widespread snow.

[capecod04]

GFS is cold and cut back on qpf. Through 69 hours it looks like the 1 inch ORH eastward and MAYBE 1.5 for BOS. But it's cold as hell!

all snow too!!

[Typhoon Tip]

definitely JMHO and I regretted saying it after I did.  The Euro has had a tendency to stuff ULL's too far SW most of the winter.  If that's playing out this time you end up with the GFS solution with everything getting a bit further NE.

 

we'll have to watch and see how that plays out.  The 18z GFS doesn't fujiwhara at all, it cuts a hole in the atmosphere with the first ULL and it just sits and spins eventually absorbing the diving s/w.  If I had to take a pick I'd go with something closer to the Euro but toned down a little.

 

 

Eh, I'd suggest the biggest corrective concern is in the fact that the -NAO would prefer the suppressed storm track.  Not saying the ECM stuff isn't true, but that it's more likely the other. 

 

But this circulation at 850 level is just massive - super huge.  It's probably the circulation girth alone that is allowing anything to get this far away from the center. 

[OSUmetstud]

gfs toned down eastern areas a bit but increased qpf over western new england slightly with more intereaction with the lakes shortwave.

[eduggs]

definitely JMHO and I regretted saying it after I did.  The Euro has had a tendency to stuff ULL's too far SW most of the winter.  If that's playing out this time you end up with the GFS solution with everything getting a bit further NE.

 

we'll have to watch and see how that plays out.  The 18z GFS doesn't fujiwhara at all, it cuts a hole in the atmosphere with the first ULL and it just sits and spins eventually absorbing the diving s/w.  If I had to take a pick I'd go with something closer to the Euro but toned down a little.

That's a reasonable call.

 

But if I ignore other guidance for a moment and look only at the GFS... I find it pretty impressive that it prints out widespread 1"+ QPF, much of it snow, from what is essentially a stacked and stagnant surface low.  It reminds me of something you'd see out in the north Pacific.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is a more run of the mill warning event for eastern half of SNE (still a good 8-12" type storm) versus the Euro which is a more threatening solution. Having said that, the GFS is certainly plausible...but given that the Euro is steadily marching one direction now, I would have to see it come back SE to convince me this storm evolves like the GFS shows it.

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS is a more run of the mill warning event for eastern half of SNE (still a good 8-12" type storm) versus the Euro which is a more threatening solution. Having said that, the GFS is certainly plausible...but given that the Euro is steadily marching one direction now, I would have to see it come back SE to convince me this storm evolves like the GFS shows it.

 

 

All part of he plan ... muah hahaahaha.  It feeds you reasons to get excited, then deals you reverses -

[weathafella]

You shouldn't get emotionally invetsted in this John.

[CoastalWx]

You shouldn't get emotionally invetsted in this John.

[capecod04]

GFS is a more run of the mill warning event for eastern half of SNE (still a good 8-12" type storm) versus the Euro which is a more threatening solution. Having said that, the GFS is certainly plausible...but given that the Euro is steadily marching one direction now, I would have to see it come back SE to convince me this storm evolves like the GFS shows it.

GFS cuts back on qpf down south too

[Modfan]

Weird BOX's snow map in CT shows 6-8 right through the middle of Windham county, and 8-10 either side; are they trying to account for the Quinebaug river valley???   Still pretty hilly through the center of the county.

[Typhoon Tip]

You shouldn't get emotionally invetsted in this John.

 

Come on, I'm trying to egg 'em on -  lol

 

Btw, Sunday is going to be the first top 10 day of the year the way things look now.  This may be furthest from people's minds, but we will be collocated under the ridge spine aloft, with 850mb T's to +2C by mid afternoon.  Probably wouldn't get the boundary layer that tall, but that doesn't matter.     Low RH, DVM and sapphire blue.  The sun is going to make it feel surreal out there.    

 

Operation turbo melt, too -

[Clinch Leatherwood]

That's a reasonable call.

 

But if I ignore other guidance for a moment and look only at the GFS... I find it pretty impressive that it prints out widespread 1"+ QPF, much of it snow, from what is essentially a stacked and stagnant surface low.  It reminds me of something you'd see out in the north Pacific.

 

What I can't tell you, and nobody else can either is whether the GFS speeding up the southern ULL is correct.  NCEP etc says no, that it should not be faster running into a block.  The GFS did tick faster and is markedly faster by 18z vs the Euro particularly on this run.  That's the difference.  It escapes just far enough out that the Fujiwhara occurs further offshore.  The Euro has had a tendency to stuff things too far SW but this seems different.  This isn't an upper low closing this is the GFS speed bias maybe being in play.  Last nights diagnostic was a paragraph long just handling feedback issues on the GFS.  So...with all of that said, nerf to head I'd ignore it for now.

 

I think I'd toss the GFS for now.  Stay with the CMC/Euro blend maybe leaning to the CMC.

[OSUmetstud]

gfs is a bit better for dc/southern Pa/and central Jersey, too.

[OceanStWx]

Weird BOX's snow map in CT shows 6-8 right through the middle of Windham county, and 8-10 either side; are they trying to account for the Quinebaug river valley???   Still pretty hilly through the center of the county.

 

 

You're focusing too much on the fact that the ranges are different. This could be as small as 8.3" and 8.4". The latter will round up to 8-10".

[Ginx snewx]

Did someone say anomalous East flow? You bet.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Matt Noyes map has 3" for Tolland.

[Chrisrotary12]

Throwing my hat in the ring.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Someone tell Tip there's a strong arctic fropa on Sunday ala euro

[Tolland Death Band]

Matt Noyes map has 3" for Tolland.

He has had an uneven year, but not having him onboard for this one makes it extra smelly. I can see 3-5" glop for us with grass-only 1-2" for BDL.

[capecod04]

gfs is a bit better for dc/southern Pa/and central Jersey, too.

funny how ive noticed, maybe wild coincedence but it seems likec12z was bad relatively for mid atlantic and better here. Like every 6 hours whatever happens down there, happens here whether its cooler or wetter etc.. This weenie logic suggests 0Z is gonna be better for us.

[Typhoon Tip]

Someone tell Tip there's a strong arctic fropa on Sunday ala euro

 

Ah, no -

 

[weathafella]

Well it will be interesting to see ingest of all upper air and surface for the 0Z runs while the storm is beginning down in DC. The fact that the RGEM came in much more robust and the NAM trying to get on line is somewhat comforting. GFS will have to come in with better rates but it's so damned cold maybe not...lol.

We'll see.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

looking at the 18z RGEM, 18z/12z GFS and 12z Euro:

 

I think the GFS is probably OTL at 18z.  It's suddenly weaker with the feature coming into the Lakes.  As a result/in combination with, the ULL being a little faster and probably also a little weaker.  I suppose it could be right, but it looks more like the GFS off hour BS.  Looks different all across the northern hemisphere like something happened.   With the offshore ULL it was well NW last night, jumped hundreds of miles SE at 12z, and then stayed there but got weaker this run.  The Euro meanwhile has moved a decent amount NW.   Impossible to pick a winner but my odds would be on a more Euro esque solution.

RGEM kind of broke towards the Euro, is stronger in the Lakes and more like the 12z GFS offshore.  So in between.  If you look at the 48 hr 18z RGEM it looks to be somewhere in between the GFS/Euro.

 

Hey it's that time, but if I had to do a forecast I'd pretty much give the 18z GFS zero credence until proven otherwise, actually zero credence.  If I'm wrong on that, so be it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

looking at the 18z RGEM, 18z/12z GFS and 12z Euro:

 

I think the GFS is probably OTL at 18z.  It's suddenly weaker with the feature coming into the Lakes.  As a result/in combination with, the ULL being a little faster and probably also a little weaker.  I suppose it could be right, but it looks more like the GFS off hour BS.  Looks different all across the northern hemisphere like something happened.   With the offshore ULL it was well NW last night, jumped hundreds of miles SE at 12z, and then stayed there but got weaker this run.  The Euro meanwhile has moved a decent amount NW.   Impossible to pick a winner but my odds would be on a more Euro esque solution.

RGEM kind of broke towards the Euro, is stronger in the Lakes and more like the 12z GFS offshore.  So in between.  If you look at the 48 hr 18z RGEM it looks to be somewhere in between the GFS/Euro.

 

Hey it's that time, but if I had to do a forecast I'd pretty much give the 18z GFS zero credence until proven otherwise, actually zero credence.  If I'm wrong on that, so be it.

I want to give you props for sticking with this early on.

Same with Tip (John)

[Sugarloaf1989]

Local met consensus here is for 3-6" of snow, WFSB3 had 6"+ over Eastern Tolland.

[Typhoon Tip]

I want to give you props for sticking with this early on.

Same with Tip (John)

 

 

Not pleased with the model handling late, though ... gives pause, and reasons to doubt how successful this will be.  I suppose there is some value in seeing a N trend evolve and having that verify, in the models, alone - so if bust after all, heh, least we have that   lol.