powderfreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not likely...considering the watch wasn't issued a half hour ago - "358 PM EST TUE MAR 5 201" Well at least it was posted watches were coming now almost an hour ago, lol BOX going with watches for a good chunk of E MA/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well at least it was posted watches were coming now almost an hour ago, lol Well, one should wait for the watches to actually go up before saying anything - geez and what's with this he said, she said first crap. does anyone really think they are getting credit for anything around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 rgem tickled nw Yeah it did. It looks healthier than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Big red flags for those totals, especially the farther north you go. Expect that gradient to sharpen up with time. Every post you make about the gradient twists the sword lol. I'm over it at this point, I hope my house gets 20" since the rest of my family hates snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Here's what we're running with at 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, one should wait for the watches to actually go up before saying anything - geez and what's with this he said, she said first crap. does anyone really think they are getting credit for anything around here? Watches were out since about 3:28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah it did. It looks healthier than the 12z run. RGEM was going all in...handled that border s/w with more authority and is dumping in at 48 hours. Going full out too. Only concern is the ULL, need to watch its momentum to make sure it doesn't sneak just far enough offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 well, it needs restating then - I like the way you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS is going to be pretty big, further south along the Canadian border and further north with the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Pretty much as soon as the guy from York came in and crapped on our parade this morning, every single piece of guidance has turned whiter. Hopefully he comes back around 9pm Moderate confidence in a top 3 snowstorm Boston to Providence. 1 more run to raise the weenie flag. Right now I like NOAA's map. There is some remote chance of a top 3 snowstorm for that corridor, which is saying a lot considering that lofty threshold and the length of recorded snowfall history. But I think moderate confidence probably overstates the likelihood... just my opinion. I can dream how this works out perfectly but I can lucidly see a dozen ways BOS stays below 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Some maps so far... channel 4 channel 5 channel 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow you have decent confidence in a top 3 snowstorm for that area? What amounts need to be hit to get into BOS/PVD 3rd place all-time?25-28'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 With those maps...I honestly think that some of the low totals is because they don't want to jump from 1-3" to 12+" in a few hours. Depending on 00z runs, I could see higher totals at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You know what this impending bust reminds me of - oh, stop it! It's transparently predictable to the point of an insult... It reminds me of Princess Bride: Count Forecast models: [admiring its torture contraption] Beautiful isn't it? It took me half a lifetime to invent it. I'm sure you've discovered my deep and abiding interest in pain. Presently I'm writing the definitive work on the subject, so I want you to be totally honest with me on how the machine makes you feel. This being our first try, I'll use the lowest setting. [Count Forecast models activates the water powered torture machine. American Weather's New England contingent writhes in great pain] Count Forecast models: [calmly] As you know, the concept of the suction pump is centuries old. Really that's all this is except that instead of sucking water, I'm sucking life. I've just sucked one year of your life away. I might one day go as high as five, but I really don't know what that would do to you. So, let's just start with what we have. What did this do to you? Tell me. And remember, this is for posterity so be honest. How do you feel? [American Weather's New England contingent cries and moans in pain] Count Forecast models: Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 With those maps...I honestly think that some of the low totals is because they don't want to jump from 1-3" to 12+" in a few hours. Depending on 00z runs, I could see higher totals at 11. I agree. Don't want to seem too jumpy by going too low and then too high. Best to slowly ramp up. WCVB's map looks tasty though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sorry powderfreak 27'' is all time high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 With those maps...I honestly think that some of the low totals is because they don't want to jump from 1-3" to 12+" in a few hours. Depending on 00z runs, I could see higher totals at 11. Well they will probably be forced to put higher totals out by 11 if early 00z data comes in just as robust as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sorry powderfreak 27'' is all time high Where? About that for BOS...top 3 at BOS are 27.5, 27.2, and 26.4...not happening or even close this storm. Well unless this goes April '97 on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well they will probably be forced to put higher totals out by 11 if early 00z data comes in just as robust as the Euro. Yeah...agreed. Slowly ramping up I bet. At 11 they will say something to the effect of "New data continues to ramp up snowfall totals, so we have an updated snowfall map to show". Enjoy the storm, hope my house gets crushed! (Well, kind of.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i'm going to start deleting OT posts. 18z GFS is nearly a scraper. much much colder profile though over E areas now. similar to the euro in that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i'm going to start deleting OT posts. 18z GFS is nearly a scraper. much much colder profile though over E areas now. similar to the euro in that regard Waiting for Rollo to dissect, but wow, looked better early on.. what happened? seems to be faster heading east than other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Convective feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hope it's wrong. Recently this has been the time frame that the gfs craps the bed with larger systems hasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's trying to phase some of that energy coming from the lakes at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 More to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS is cold and cut back on qpf. Through 69 hours it looks like the 1 inch ORH eastward and MAYBE 1.5 for BOS. But it's cold as hell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i'm going to start deleting OT posts. 18z GFS is nearly a scraper. much much colder profile though over E areas now. similar to the euro in that regard Does "east" mean from Rhode Island eastward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There is some remote chance of a top 3 snowstorm for that corridor, which is saying a lot considering that lofty threshold and the length of recorded snowfall history. But I think moderate confidence probably overstates the likelihood... just my opinion. I can dream how this works out perfectly but I can lucidly see a dozen ways BOS stays below 6". definitely JMHO and I regretted saying it after I did. The Euro has had a tendency to stuff ULL's too far SW most of the winter. If that's playing out this time you end up with the GFS solution with everything getting a bit further NE. we'll have to watch and see how that plays out. The 18z GFS doesn't fujiwhara at all, it cuts a hole in the atmosphere with the first ULL and it just sits and spins eventually absorbing the diving s/w. If I had to take a pick I'd go with something closer to the Euro but toned down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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