Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Great run Sw ct winter dude. But seriously the trends have been nice, but this event is going to go down to the wire, especially with precip type. A real nailbiter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the 00z NAM verified, Kev would beat me by like 40" on the season. You do pretty well on the 00z NAM...you actually might do as well as Kevin on it. Very tight line near 128 but you look like you are far enough NW. Kind of a bizzare thermal profile in that 850 is pretty warm but both above and below it is pretty cold. The clown maps have you doing just as well if not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the 00z NAM verified, Kev would beat me by like 40" on the season. it likely won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nam gets tossed beyond 42 or so hours. Jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sw ct winter dude. But seriously the trends have been nice, but this event is going to go down to the wire, especially with precip type. A real nailbiter It really is. A touch south and a bit less dynamic and it's warm, really need that good lift to offset this stale air mass, hope we can all cash in from dca to bos and everywhere in between! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I should explain my comment. The nam wants none of the earlier phasing of the Canadian s/w that we've been building for a few days. All models have it including the euro. This run of the nam comes in at a weird angle and deflects ene before partially dumping down much later. Maybe all the models were wrong on that feature but I think odds favor the ham being wrong. As soon as the CMC gets through with their pong sports tournament and dedicates the Atari to spitting out those b&w maps we should have quick confirmation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Those clown maps are idiotic. It even has me in decent accums and the models didn't say that tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have a hard time believing just cause inever recall a storm where KBWI KDCA are 90 percent snoww and Boston is 40-50 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the 00z NAM verified, Kev would beat me by like 40" on the season. Eh, you guys are too fragile - slight negative anything and it's a knee jerk, woe-is-me reaction/response. That +1C at 850 does not mean a flipping to rain, and it's probably too warm at this time range, 60 hours, at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Those clown maps are idiotic. It even has me in decent accums and the models didn't say that tonight. BOS probably gets pasted for about 8-10 hours on the NAM...its pretty marginal at around 34F, but then again who says it wouldn't be 32F? Trying to interprete models when its this marginal generally calls for common sense and meteorology verus modelology...I think we know if its ripping that its probably going to be a paste bomb for at least a while right to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have a hard time believing just cause inever recall a storm where KBWI KDCA are 90 percent snoww and Boston is 40-50 percent It happens...it's rare, but it can. Boston was rain for 3/4 of 1888 I think, while NYC was N gales howling to 60mph in teens with S++. This is just 1 run of a model that doesn't have very good accuracy on thermal fields outside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The gfs shuffles features here and there vs the 18z even at 18 hours. Unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 00z MET guidance has an 8 in the snow category for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Snowcane very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 00z MET guidance has an 8 in the snow category for BOS. Wow! That's a flag! It also had that at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The gfs shuffles features here and there vs the 18z even at 18 hours. Unusual Does it look EURO like? Reason to be concerned? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 will the clown map verbatim doesn't give ray more than 3 inches. i look'd very closely at it. He is in Nw corner of wilmington....tewksbury isn't even more than 4 inches. I overlayed towns on the clown map. Until you get west of the RI/MA border (longitude) wise ....even at ray's latitude it's less than advisory. from framingham to andover center SE there is 3 inches or less. lol NOT buying it all...hence the comment earlier that show'd natick getting zero and ORH 25. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Impressive for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow! That's a flag! It also had that at 12z.8''? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 8''? It means 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 . Rgem is blunted too and my bet is that's where the gfs is starting to go. Not sure i recall all models latching onto something only to drop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, it's quite a shift since 12z as well as of 27hr The gfs shuffles features here and there vs the 18z even at 18 hours. Unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 will the clown map verbatim doesn't give ray more than 3 inches. i look'd very closely at it. He is in Nw corner of wilmington....tewksbury isn't even more than 4 inches. I overlayed towns on the clown map. Until you get west of the RI/MA border (longitude) wise ....even at ray's latitude it's less than advisory. from framingham to andover center SE there is 3 inches or less. lol NOT buying it all...hence the comment earlier that show'd natick getting zero and ORH 25. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE084.gif It was looking at this one....but neither of the maps matter at all right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, it's quite a shift since 12z as well as of 27hr Uh oh... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It happens...it's rare, but it can. Boston was rain for 3/4 of 1888 I think, while NYC was N gales howling to 60mph in teens with S++. This is just 1 run of a model that doesn't have very good accuracy on thermal fields outside of 36 hours.thanks Tip, keeping the faith!! Thanks Jerry 8+ is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BOS probably gets pasted for about 8-10 hours on the NAM...its pretty marginal at around 34F, but then again who says it wouldn't be 32F? Trying to interprete models when its this marginal generally calls for common sense and meteorology verus modelology...I think we know if its ripping that its probably going to be a paste bomb for at least a while right to BOS. Right, and this system was always slated to warm in the column nearing the end, anyway. In fact I'm pretty sure posts were made regarding this ending as liquid cold mist and drizzle. One thing I am noticing is that this is subtly weaker at 500mb on this NAM run, which may atone to slightly less dynamical cooling, so any such latter column warming might be more proficient given to that. That said, this isn't warming all that much. It's surging the 850mb 0C isotherm west to the Berks, but the +3C never gets much west of the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 gotcha WIll ....that gives me 8 on the nose and ray a crush job. but as we know less than a grain of salt. Rollo believed before 0z guidance that models would take a step back...i'm not sure if they are ....or if it's his preconceived notion getting best of his interpretations early on in the run. . He has been very hot wrt to a good handle on this storm so i hope the gfs starts ampin up on 0z quickly. No one would be shocked if gfs went hard SE and met the euro..even if gfs and ens had 10 straight runs in a row prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This depiction of gfs kind of screws the western burbs of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 00z GFS a bit east from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like it may screw others as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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