weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Makes sense 6-8 but no watch lol. At any rate this is going to be a fun 60 hours. Our favorite thing is long duration snowstorms. Nothing better. Days and days of snow BOS is also 6-8 but not too far away it's more. Not typical in late season events so I'd hedge to the higher numbers if they actually occur in the Cambridge/Newton/Brookline belt for BOS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the BOX map matches well with the 12pm TV newscasts. Channel 7 just said 2-4" right now. LOL. I mean what planet is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 seriously. it's insane. the euro feeds in so much low level cold that it's a 31-34F paste job along the coast...but that continuous drainage enhances the low level instability and the profile never inverts...so not only is it more snow...it's probably more wind as well. There is definitely high bust potential in both directions...some of the way the Euro turns the whole deep layer flow E and then ENE to NE just crushing E MA/RI is pretty insane. The upslope here on that would be awesome too. It would probably produce widespread 12-20" totals and even higher in spots. OTOH, I can see the whole thing not materializing coherently and we see a long duration shredded event that gives a few spots 6" of slop and the rest is a nuisance advisory junk event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BOS is also 6-8 but not too far away it's more. Not typical in late season events so I'd hedge to the higher numbers if they actually occur in the Cambridge/Newton/Brookline belt for BOS as well. Well I think amounts would be pretty close across the city. I don't take those maps verbatim because sometimes they get too cute with amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Channel 7 just said 2-4" right now. LOL. I mean what planet is that from? If Harvey's in town I wonder if he comes in and takes over...lol...Channel 5 that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like a watch just went up - Posted on here over a half hour ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If Harvey's in town I wonder if he comes in and takes over...lol...Channel 5 that is... Well he already tweeted...so maybe he is ready to come in tomorrow should BOS look under the gun for a huge event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well I think amounts would be pretty close across the city. I don't take those maps verbatim because sometimes they get too cute with amounts. What do you think we'll get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wind advisory for CT shoreline and WSW for New London Cty only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There is definitely high bust potential in both directions...some of the way the Euro turns the whole deep layer flow E and then ENE to NE just crushing E MA/RI is pretty insane. The upslope here on that would be awesome too. It would probably produce widespread 12-20" totals and even higher in spots. OTOH, I can see the whole thing not materializing coherently and we see a long duration shredded event that gives a few spots 6" of slop and the rest is a nuisance advisory junk event. The shredded look is probably my worst fear, that goes ahead of temps IMO. We are close enough to start hitting it harder, but just enough time exists for models to come in a little more disorganized. At least most models display enough 6hrly QPF to make things interesting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wind advisory for CT shoreline and WSW for New London Cty only Yep going 3-6 right now for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They have to have 50% confidence of more than 6" (in 12 hours or less...otherwise its over 8") for over half of the county to put a watch up there. If they could issue just a watch for Tolland at 1,000 feet, I"m sure they would. But that isn't how it works. Quote of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Watches up in New London County. Bam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Pretty much as soon as the guy from York came in and crapped on our parade this morning, every single piece of guidance has turned whiter. Hopefully he comes back around 9pm Moderate confidence in a top 3 snowstorm Boston to Providence. 1 more run to raise the weenie flag. Right now I like NOAA's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yep going 3-6 right now for us.Glad you jumped ship this morning AWT you not to do. Enjoy it . No spring in sight. Cold weekend and snow OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And the same applies for areas farther west in respects to snowfall Doesn't it look like the jackpot zone in that storm get less in this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is epically true, and echoes the same concern I just made a moment ago. Very unusual to see so much QPF being generated that far NW of the system. What ... is there some kind of anomalous frontogenic signature here? What's the trigger? There does appear to be an anomalous easterly flow at 500mb, which is sometimes sited in reanalysis of interesting events - who knows... MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE REX- BLOCK OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. NOW DESPITE DOMESTIC MODEL SIMULATIONS SAYING EXCESSIVE QPF FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PATTERN RECOGNITION AND AMPLITUDE OF BLOCK PATTERN INDICATES A RED FLAG FOR A MORE SUPPRESSED/OFSHR/COLDER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND GGEM. THIS SOLUTION PLACES A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO NE MA. THUS A SOUTHEAST SHIFT OF 50-75 MILE PLACES THE HEAVY QPF GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. HENCE BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Doesn't it look like the jackpot zone in that storm get less in this storm?Yeah. But relatively speaking. If the snows drier you get more etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 In case this has not been posted ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Posted on here over a half hour ago... Not likely...considering the watch wasn't issued a half hour ago - "358 PM EST TUE MAR 5 201" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Moderate confidence in a top 3 snowstorm Boston to Providence. 1 more run to raise the weenie flag. Right now I like NOAA's map. Wow you have decent confidence in a top 3 snowstorm for that area? What amounts need to be hit to get into BOS/PVD 3rd place all-time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is epically true, and echoes the same concern I just made a moment ago. Very unusual to see so much QPF being generated that far NW of the system. What ... is there some kind of anomalous frontogenic signature here? What's the trigger? There does appear to be an anomalous easterly flow at 500mb, which is sometimes sited in reanalysis of interesting events - who knows...MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDEREX- BLOCK OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. NOW DESPITE DOMESTICMODEL SIMULATIONS SAYING EXCESSIVE QPF FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND...PATTERN RECOGNITION AND AMPLITUDE OF BLOCK PATTERNINDICATES A RED FLAG FOR A MORE SUPPRESSED/OFSHR/COLDER SOLUTIONSIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND GGEM. THIS SOLUTION PLACES ASHARP QPF GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO NE MA. THUS A SOUTHEASTSHIFT OF 50-75 MILE PLACES THE HEAVY QPF GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.HENCE BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE. Written in the wee hours 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is weird.... text is getting scrolled off the edge of my pc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What do you think we'll get? I've just given everything a cursory look since I haven't been around a laptop since yesterday, but I think BOX has a reasonable first guess. It could be more, but the risk is there for less too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 In case this has not been posted ... StormTotalSnowFcst.png Big red flags for those totals, especially the farther north you go. Expect that gradient to sharpen up with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is weird.... text is getting scrolled off the edge of my pc.. Turn your screen sideways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Written in the wee hours 12 hours ago. well, it needs restating then - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 rgem tickled nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Turn your screen sideways. Hmm, didn't work - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hmm, didn't work - LOL. GFS is coming in more aggressive with the s/w angle along the Canadian border. One of your fetishes may have bared fruit here, maybe more complete sampling as it came ashore. Editing because I was actually looking at the NAM..whoops. As it turns out the GFS is a little more intense too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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