dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We've (NW NE) missed pretty much every large storm up here...and yet somehow are over 80" with solid snowpack since Dec 16th. I can only imagine what this winter could've been with a couple of these big hits. Probably similar to 10-11's 150" in town. The biggest issue here is we lost the snow pack after just about every storm up here, So its made the winter as a whole below avg, We should have anywhere from 18-24" of snow pack during the winter, We may have avg 10", And its at 8" now with a lot of bare areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can I have the link for the watches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthieWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Harvey Leonard weighs in with a tweet: "Odds of a heavy, wet snowstorm for much of The Greater Boston Metropolitan Area are increasing." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not sure I've ever seen a 1-county watch from gyx before. I'm a bigger fan of this view. It looks awfully lonely up there by itself. Our forecast wasn't as time intensive as our neighbors to the south, so we just happened to get our products out quicker. It will be a brutal cutoff tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can I have the link for the watches? Grids are populating now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 925 mb winds still look insane on the NAM. 70-80 kt max with 60-70 blowing right in on the Coast, there's going to be significant problems with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 At 66 hours, the NAM 2m temps are like 27-28F here, lol...despite the mid-levels torching. That would be an interesting finish to the storm. 20" of snow followed by a few pellets and then glazing everything with a quarter inch of ice. The NAM never fails to entertain. Then you will ice skate on top of two feet of snow. We call that Creme Brulee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can't win them all. Accuweather put up 3-6; 4-8 on the PAC. OT - funny to see the clouds coming from up north going down south. They must be basing it off the GFS, Like i had said, If it verified we would see those totals plus in all likelihood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z NAM is wet, but warm ... to the tune of half or more of the total QPF falling as liquid for eastern zones. I'm puzzled as to why there is so much QPF being persistently modeled by multiple sources, so far NW of a storm that's straddling 36N. Be that as it awkwardly may be, ... I guess we got to go with it. But if every model busted too wet in this thing, it wouldn't be a shocker. My gut feeling tells me to take every model run type there is, lay them out, and pick the top 3 attributes of each you like the least (and by like I mean, "like" in the sense of what you least WANT to see happen), combine them all into one virtual run, and that will be what verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3-5-2013 2-45-52 PM.png I'm a bigger fan of this view. It looks awfully lonely up there by itself. Our forecast wasn't as time intensive as our neighbors to the south, so we just happened to get our products out quicker. It will be a brutal cutoff tough. There is a model, somewhere, that supports that singular watch up there in S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z NAM is wet, but warm ... to the tune of half or more of the total QPF falling as liquid for eastern zones. I'm puzzled as to why there is so much QPF being persistently modeled by multiple sources, so far NW of a storm that's straddling 36N. Be that as it awkwardly may be, ... I guess we got to go with it. But if every model busted too wet in this thing, it wouldn't be shocker. My gut feeling tells me to take every model run type there is, lay them out, and pick the top 3 attributes of each you like the least (and by like I mean, "like" in the sense of what you least WANT to see happen), combine them all into one virtual run, and that will be what verifies. Yeah, the distance/disjoint is just really difficult to buy into, even only a day and change away from alleged onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 if we get a foreign model solution - the same areas that were crushed 2/9 with respect to wind/snow/power/waves are going to get it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 if we get a foreign model solution - the same areas that were crushed 2/9 with respect to wind/snow/power/waves are going to get it again.And the same applies for areas farther west in respects to snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 And your 1st map is out. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 actually looks better then i thought it would for here And your 1st map is out. AWT StormTotalSnowFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Upton, timestamp is 4 PM but I think it's the same map as their overnight package? Total QPF map changed, so maybe they are changing it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the BOX map matches well with the 12pm TV newscasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ct River Valley strikes again on that Boston map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And the same applies for areas farther west in respects to snowfall ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And your 1st map is out. AWT StormTotalSnowFcst.png Looks like a good start, probably has to go up at some areas, but a nice baseline. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like a watch just went up - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the BOX map matches well with the 12pm TV newscasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Makes sense 6-8 but no watch lol. At any rate this is going to be a fun 60 hours. Our favorite thing is long duration snowstorms. Nothing better. Days and days of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 if we get a foreign model solution - the same areas that were crushed 2/9 with respect to wind/snow/power/waves are going to get it again. Yep, maybe another 6 day outage for my folks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Makes sense 6-8 but no watch lol. At any rate this is going to be a fun 60 hours. Our favorite thing is long duration snowstorms. Nothing better. Days and days of snow They have to have 50% confidence of more than 6" (in 12 hours or less...otherwise its over 8") for over half of the county to put a watch up there. If they could issue just a watch for Tolland at 1,000 feet, I"m sure they would. But that isn't how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ct River Valley strikes again on that Boston map Its a low-confidence forecast. I'd expect at least a minor jog West over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 this could actually be the most verified headliner from this thing... ...HIGH RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION DURINGTHE HIGH TIDES FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING....MODERATE WITH EVEN POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLEALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST. THE STORM SURGE IS PROJECTEDTO BE 2.5 TO 3 FEET MOST EAST COAST LOCATIONS FROM LATE WEDNESDAYNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAVES OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY REACH 25TO 30 FEET. THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOOD SITUATIONESPECIALLY SINCE MANY AREAS ARE STILL VULNERABLE AFTER THEFEBRUARY 9 STORM TIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Makes sense 6-8 but no watch lol. At any rate this is going to be a fun 60 hours. Our favorite thing is long duration snowstorms. Nothing better. Days and days of snow more proof my posts are routinely ignored... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yep, maybe another 6 day outage for my folks lol. seriously. it's insane. the euro feeds in so much low level cold that it's a 31-34F paste job along the coast...but that continuous drainage enhances the low level instability and the profile never inverts...so not only is it more snow...it's probably more wind as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They have to have 50% confidence of more than 6" (in 12 hours or less...otherwise its over 8") for over half of the county to put a watch up there. If they could issue just a watch for Tolland at 1,000 feet, I"m sure they would. But that isn't how it works.No I know. But the vast majority of Tolland County is elevated. Only as you get to extreme western area near valley it lowers.. Not a big deal other than semantics. But with the Euro getting 1.5 to BDL if also include HFD county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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