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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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The NAM is like -7C at 900mb here at 45 hours, lol. Meanwhile its -1C at 850mb. At has 2m temps around 25-26F

 

Yeah  I've noticed this with the NAM though Will.  Seems to have some type of memory for bad things, like a PTSD but model version.  I expect it corrects at 0z.

 

You and probably Boston are going to get absolutely destroyed unless the ULL sneaks out.

 

All out blizzard conditions on this run

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Euro ensembles are quite similar to the OP...just take whatever the OP run gave you and multiply it by about 80-90% (0.80-0.90) and that is what it gives most of the region. The areas around and outside of the 0.50" contour on the OP run didn't change at all...in fact the 0.25" line looks a bit more liberal.

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lol, No complaints i am content, Reminds me of you in the blizzard............lol

We've (NW NE) missed pretty much every large storm up here...and yet somehow are over 80" with solid snowpack since Dec 16th.

I can only imagine what this winter could've been with a couple of these big hits. Probably similar to 10-11's 150" in town.

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Man, this run makes me happy.  

 

That's well and good, but the NAM seems to be just coming into the fold of a greater consensus after several runs of what could only be called total folly. I wouldn't put too much stock in this particular solution but rather consider it the first run of the NAM in a while that may be worthwhile to add to the guidance suite worth looking at.

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Imagine trying to forecast the rain snow line if all you had was the 57 hour 18z NAM at 8h? 

 

Just based on the water vapor, RAP, and now the 18z NAM I'd expect the RGEM at least to get more entertaining this run as well.  It was handling the border s/w more like the NAM than the Euro...and that seems to have been an egregious error.

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At 66 hours, the NAM 2m temps are like 27-28F here, lol...despite the mid-levels torching. That would be an interesting finish to the storm. 20" of snow followed by a few pellets and then glazing everything with a quarter inch of ice.

The NAM never fails to entertain.

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At 66 hours, the NAM 2m temps are like 27-28F here, lol...despite the mid-levels torching. That would be an interesting finish to the storm. 20" of snow followed by a few pellets and then glazing everything with a quarter inch of ice.

The NAM never fails to entertain.

 

Yeah it goes off the range after 45 or so outside of its range.  Long way out, but if we can get the fujiwhara to happen in the right spot which would keep Boston to PVD cold we'd see epic totals coming out of that region.

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LOL yeah no way.

That's almost as funny as the several GFS runs that had 6-12 inch warning snows to the Canadian border.

 

I still think we'll see something--the trough will be our friend.  Let's hope anyway, lol. 

 

I'd be more than happy with a fresh few, unlike many who want all or lawns.  ;)

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