ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nam at 24 looks like its going to be real good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One thing’s for sure, whatever the GFS was smoking, the NAM’s not buying it at least for down here. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 this has a bit of 2/25/99 look to it the way the ULL gets tugged back Here's your snowfall in that one: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow0226.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nam at 24 looks like its going to be real good The NCEP guidance has been so jumpy...probably shows that the Euro now can take the reigns after its 96 hour catastrophe a couple runs ago. Euro kept crawling NW despite the NCEP models striking panic into weenies all over SNE at 12z with their jump SE. Its amazing how much better the 18z NAM looks at 30 hours vs the 12z at 36 hours. I think messenger is correct with the enhanced fujiwara now with the lakes energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NWS Grey has a WSW for Southeastern HN/Portsmouth area. I guess the NWS Taunton will follow to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is an atrocious model. I haven't seen 2 runs even close to the same all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT just put out his last map and admits to busting http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/LAST.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Here's your snowfall in that one: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow0226.gif RHR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is an atrocious model. I haven't seen 2 runs even close to the same all winter. Actually, it was fairly consistent with its solutions for the blizzard, from what I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A few days ago I mentioned the Euro's past biases regarding heights in the N ATL/ E CA in the med/long range. Is that one possible reason for the possible meltdown? Was this problem addressed in upgrades? Sorry if it's kind of OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The NCEP guidance has been so jumpy...probably shows that the Euro now can take the reigns after its 96 hour catastrophe a couple runs ago. Euro kept crawling NW despite the NCEP models striking panic into weenies all over SNE at 12z with their jump SE. Its amazing how much better the 18z NAM looks at 30 hours vs the 12z at 36 hours. I think messenger is correct with the enhanced fujiwara now with the lakes energy. Will I'm kind of in the "checklist of things that can go wrong mode" and the only 2 that we'd be able to track are the UK letting the ULL get east more than any other model so a capture is less meaningful, and the NAM rock skip along the Canadian border. Which BTW the CMC guidance did to some extent as well so we may see a change there too shortly. The NAM very clearly adjusted right at the first few hours in taking a trajectory more ESE than E like the last few runs, so the phase is clearly now going to happen much earlier (in line with the Euro and GFS). So we can take a big one off the list not that we gave it any credence, but it was still a small elephant in the room. The last check-off is the ULL escaping. GFS sped this up NAM just did too, but I'm guessing only towards the Euro which is why its evolution was a little different on the Fujiwhara. All good things. NAM should be colder this run, but it seems to take it's sweet time in adjusting those things out, may take another run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM still looks warmer than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT just put out his last map and admits to busting http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/LAST.jpg It’s about time he admitted it! I wouldn’t want to be the person at Upton this afternoon doing headlines. On one side, you have the GFS/UKIE, which is nothing significant. Than you have the EURO/GGEM, which is 48 hours of light snows, but not much accumulation till thursday night. Finally you have the SREFS/NAM, which is probably a warning event. If I had to choose, I’d probably put out a long term advisory, for maybe 7 PM wednesday to 7 AM friday, although I wouldn’t want to have to choose, that’s for sure. They have been riding the EURO pretty hard, and with it highlighting the inverted trough potential, I think they almost have to mention it. BOX is relatively easy at this point, WSWatches for probably the entire CWA minus western CT and MA and maybe the cape(not sure what temps look like out there, haven’t really paid attention) It’s going to be an interesting afternoon! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT just put out his last map and admits to busting http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/LAST.jpg I wonder whether he'll unban all of those folks who were right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very nice run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's staggering to see the shift in the Euro over the past 4 days of runs in succession. All of the players shifted north by 500 miles, there was not a flinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dunno if it should be believed. It's been known to capitulate to the Euro in the last 12 hours before the event in the past. NAM def looks a bit north fo 12z through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM still looks warmer than other guidance. 850s cool between 06z and 09z Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM still looks warmer than other guidance. It's caving though. Look at 39 and 42 compared to the last run, lol. It's coming Bob. We just have to make sure the ULL doesn't get away off Hatteras, otherwise lube up the shovels and get out the candles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice hit. WSW at 4:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT just put out his last map and admits to busting http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/LAST.jpg He is going to bust big up here............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Eastern areas have to like the trend, still lots of precip and colder temps. Just a giant mind**** over here though, can't recall the last time I've been so confused >2 days from a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice hit. WSW at 4:00? I freaking hope so. This one is coming on strong, and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's caving though. Look at 39 and 42 compared to the last run, lol. It's coming Bob. We just have to make sure the ULL doesn't get away off Hatteras, otherwise lube up the shovels and get out the candles. Yup. NAM crushes. Closing in on 2" by 15z Thurs and still dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice hit. WSW at 4:00? For you probably. What a NAM run for here, looks like close to a foot here and still coming down strong, much colder here as well. The insane thing about all of this is that we are like 24 hours out, it feel like it’s 124 with all the bouncing going around... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Eastern areas have to like the trend, still lots of precip and colder temps. Just a giant mind**** over here though, can't recall the last time I've been so confused >2 days from a storm Exactly, we see anywhere from 2 days of non accumulating flurries to a blizzard. The spread is simply astounding at 24 hours. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM going to do the Fujiwhara Shake off the coast this run. Finally joining the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice hit. WSW at 4:00? Yeah, I think that little WSW in SE NH is a good indicator that the BOX FA will have WSW's up at least in some locations with their afternoon package. Not sure how much they'll buy in to the colder solutions, Suffolk and points SE at least along the immediate coast may be kept out for now but I'm guessing watches will be pretty broad in coverage given the upper end of the spectrum of potential displayed from 12z runs onward today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT just put out his last map and admits to busting http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/LAST.jpg While I certainly like the looks of this map, I don't see how we pull those numbers up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 straight to a blizzard watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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