Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This NAM run may be potentially more useful than the earlier runs based on the first 6 hours and how it's handling the border s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes oceanstwx I mean hpc is bullish (and I shld have clarified) wrt to that area wrt big snowfall numbers. To show 70 percent of 8 inch snows and 20 percent of 24 inch snows in some of same areas show they are thinkin this cld be a biggie. I mean they even have probs for 30 + (which is rare to see probs) for, so in that sense they are bullish or at least respecting models and 850 and 250 mb anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Beautiful thing about the NAM is each run is like the first time they flipped it on. Can see the angle of approach is way better on the s/w this run, it shouldn't deflect. Basing this off of 8 hours. Probably will see the NAM fold cold this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFs came a decent amount S...however, they increased the size of the 2"+ qpf max in E MA. ALmost looks like the Euro now. Looks liked the 0c 850 line penetrates inland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF’s somewhat similar, south a bit with the heaviest of the QPF, but also jacked numbers up a bit, so about the same overall, still 1.25”+ for here. They also like the trough scenario, it’s a 48 hour period of light to moderate snow here, probably hits 6” when alls said and done due to cold temps, although probably not the 9” that we would need for 24 hour warning criteria. Overall still very nice though. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Cool. NAM should finally become at least a useful tool. Clearly folding the energy down much more this run, it's not skipping like a rock off the Canadian border this time. Coming into the US....she will be colder and angrier for SE areas I'd think. Thru 12 hours. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Joe up to Mrg east . That's going to be the fun zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks liked the 0c 850 line penetrates inland though. Not until post 66 hours.....wouldn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone have rough 12z euro qpf amts for SNH? tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Accuweather's snowfall map from the 12z Euro has close to 30 inches for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFs really are like watching yesterdays news guys. They're so heavily based in NAM type nonsense they're going to lag. This run of the NAM should be much more useful, it's faster in the south, digging better, it's finally coming to the party with it's Sunday best on. Will probably face plant somewhere around 36 hours but I'm glad to see this idea go bye bye (no phase) This should also be good news for those of us that watch TV, as we should see the related products come around and maybe get some actual forecasts for snow this evening on TV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes oceanstwx I mean hpc is bullish (and I shld have clarified) wrt to that area wrt big snowfall numbers. To show 70 percent of 8 inch snows and 20 percent of 24 inch snows in some of same areas show they are thinkin this cld be a biggie. I mean they even have probs for 30 + (which is rare to see probs) for, so in that sense they are bullish or at least respecting models and 850 and 250 mb anomalies. Those probabilities are experimental. Plenty of science involved, but can suffer from a few members skewing the mean, just like all ensembles. Here is the HPC write up on how they are created: The operational WPC Winter Weather Desk (WWD) creates 24-h forecasts of snowfall and freezing rain accumulations for each of three consecutive 24-h periods (days) extending 72 hours into the future. These products are shared with the NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) in a collaborative process resulting in refinement of the accumulation forecasts. After the 24-h snowfall and freezing rain accumulation forecasts are finalized, the WWD issues its public products: a limited suite of probabilistic winter weather forecasts. These probabilistic forecasts are computed based on the deterministic accumulation forecasts combined with ensemble information (see below) and are manually edited by the WWD forecaster. The probabilistic forecasts found here on the WPC PWPF page are also based on the deterministic WWD accumulation forecasts, but are generated totally automatically using an ensemble of model forecasts along with the WWD forecasts. The automatic nature of this product generation allows a much more extensive set of displays of probabilities for snowfall or freezing rain exceeding a number of thresholds and accumulations of snowfall or freezing rain for various percentile levels. The automatic processing also allows the generation of probabilistic winter precipitation forecasts for 48-h intervals based on 48-h accumulations obtained by adding two 24-h accumulations together. The same method used to compute the 24-h probabilistic products is applied to the 48-h intervals ending at 48 and 72 hours after the initial time. A multi-model ensemble is utilized to create a distribution of values around the WPC accumulation at each grid point. The typical constituency of this ensemble is as follows: 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members 1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run 1 European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) latest operational run 1 Canadian Model (CMC) latest operational run 1 ECMWF latest ensemble mean 1 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) latest ensemble mean (6-h SLRs) 1 GEFS latest ensemble mean (24-h mean SLR) ___ 28 Total members The GFS based forecast and the SREF (because there are so many of them) to an extent are really going to juice the probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah near the NH border into Rockingham county, PSM is under 1"...you are around 1.5" Figures ! We've not been the bullseye for any storm this winter... Most people south of us have done better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Joe up to Mrg east . That's going to be the fun zone Thanks for the pick up man, needed it. Srefs looked good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Failboat storm up here barring a Flutie hail mary. AWT I'm surprised at how cold the Euro is. I hope its not being too cold...like it was in the 2/27 event That has to be a concern after the last storm Whenever DC is in the game, we're usually smoking cirrus up this way. Just like 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Figures ! We've not been the bullseye for any storm this winter... Most people south of us have done better. We should do ok. WSW is up BTW for Interior and Coastal Rockingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 AWT That has to be a concern after the last storm Just like 2010 You've done a lot of complaining this season for someone with over 80" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You've done a lot of complaining this season for someone with over 80" of snow. lol, No complaints i am content, Reminds me of you in the blizzard............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM going to do the full monty this run. Makes me think the CMC may be about to leap too, RGEM/NAM were both mishandling (apparently) the energy coming into MN later today. GFS/Euro were different. 1 flag. NAM is speeding that ULL out. Seems odd in this block, but has to be watched. That's how Andy's UKMET hosed us and not in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Euro is more generous than I thought here... .75 to .8 owing to easterly fetch upslope I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFs cut back quite a bit west of 395. Now 0.5"-0.75" Tolland/Hartford etc. Still a big thump in E Mass/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 is the wind going to be enough for blizzard watches for eastern parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol ..congrats everyone @BigJoeBastardi: http://t.co/VDPx6H6Uwn posts shows how storm morphs from clone of March 62, to Dec 92 for a time, then Feb 24-28 1969 type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 coastal flood watch up. BOX spells it out nicely. going to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hows it looking for North Shore of boston? Beverly/Peabody/Gloucester? Significant mixing/rain issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just an odd evolution of the 850s over SE MA on the 15z SREFs. Everyone warms up above 0c by 69h except a an area SW of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM def looks a bit north fo 12z through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hows it looking for North Shore of boston? Beverly/Peabody/Gloucester? Significant mixing/rain issues? The euro seemed to think we'd be cold enough for snow I think, showed snow pretty much to the coast I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just an odd evolution of the 850s over SE MA on the 15z SREFs. Everyone warms up above 0c by 69h except a an area SW of BOS. Toss. Probably no phase which is what the NAM just dumped this run. Error, toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM going to do the full monty this run. Makes me think the CMC may be about to leap too, RGEM/NAM were both mishandling (apparently) the energy coming into MN later today. GFS/Euro were different. 1 flag. NAM is speeding that ULL out. Seems odd in this block, but has to be watched. That's how Andy's UKMET hosed us and not in a good way. I mentioned that a few days ago and have been following these trends when comaring really any of the models, esp. the operational NAM and the SREFS since they're cousins. The weenie arw camp was consistently quicker and further n with the ULL, and jmo it was partly because the block was a little weaker and further NE. Or perhaps, the energy was ejecting a little quicker in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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