moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 How long before we get Tolland DPW twitter posts? My Accuweather alarm is forecasting 8-12" here mixed with rain at times. The national guard and CL&P are already amassing their forces at the base of Mount Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What's the confidence in the euro's accuracy at this time frame/in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC has new 24 hr snow progs just updated with graphics http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=48&ptype=snow 48 hr progs not updated yet Congrats to the I-190 corridor with probs of 24+. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The national guard and CL&P are already amassing their forces at the base of Mount Tolland. I hope they are bringing avalanche dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What's the EC giving DC at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can't wait to see a EURO snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What's the confidence in the euro's accuracy at this time frame/in this setup? Usually very high. OVerall confidence though in this whole storm evolution remains fairly low though. Its going to be a difficult storm to forecast. I am encouraged a lot by the fact the Euro made a definitive nudge to the northwest/juicier after we saw the Ukie/GFS come SE. Euro once in this time frame (despite its earlier struggles) should be able to take over the reins pretty competently, but I think there is still a fairly wide range of possibilities even at this point in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can't wait to see a EURO snowfall map Those wunderground snow maps are weeniesh to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can't say I've ever seen HPC snow progs discussed like they are now. Good job pickles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC Not very Bullish? 5-10% chance of 30" is Never something I'm going to complain about. 30% of 18" as well. That's pretty awesomely Bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Usually very high. OVerall confidence though in this whole storm evolution remains fairly low though. Its going to be a difficult storm to forecast. I am encouraged a lot by the fact the Euro made a definitive nudge to the northwest/juicier after we saw the Ukie/GFS come SE. Euro once in this time frame (despite its earlier struggles) should be able to take over the reins pretty competently, but I think there is still a fairly wide range of possibilities even at this point in the game. Anticipation grows for the 18z runs. Anything that's not like the EC's going to get tossed and anything that is will be given AWT. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So what are you thinking for us Mainers? Not much really, 2" if we are lucky, More if the GFS is right................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackymann Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Probs > 30" snow http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_48hr/prb_48hsnow_ge30_2013030512f072.gif ~ 1/6 chance of armageddon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can't say I've ever seen HPC snow progs discussed like they are now. Good job pickles. It is kind of funny that HPC has 5+% probabilities for 30" or snow or greater in areas that the TV people in boston had in rain showers. I find that amusing. And that we still have not so much as a watch or advisory, HAHA. I know it's coming at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The national guard and CL&P are already amassing their forces at the base of Mount Tolland.Its a powdery snow. He was right yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wow, HPC has 50% chance of 8” here in 48 hours days 2-3.” They must be thinking either this comes more NW, or they think the inverted trough on the EURO is legit. Hey, we have a 1% shot at 24” according to them, maybe this is that one in a hundred time that the unthinkable happens? EDIT: That was when the GFS was onboard at 0z. Who knows now? checking shortly... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Matt Noyes tweet 1 hour ago.So...when making a forecast, one regular stop for me is to determine the outcome of similar previous storms. I don't always share these comparisons, as there is danger in singling out specific storms, and I surely don't base forecasts entirely on these comparisons. That said, it's interesting to note that when matched against history, mean snowfall amounts in New England with storms similar to our midweek storm were on the order of four to six inches for the vast majority of Central and Southern New England. That said, a lot of detail can be lost in the "mean," or average; for instance, some similar storms brought nothing, others over 18" of snow. Through all of this garble, we can derive probabilities - based solely on history and similar storms, here are is the chances of various accumulations verifying somewhere in Central and Southern New England:•2" of snow: 80%•4" of snow: 50%•6" of snow: 45%•8" of snow: 40%•12" of snow: 30%•18" of snow: 15%•24" of snow: less than 10%Putting all of this together, it becomes clear that an event with average amounts of greater than 8" is far less likely - not impossible, but sharply less likely - than an event of less than 8" of snow. Historically, the greatest amounts were found in the higher terrain of Southern Vermont, Western MA and Southwest NH, with a secondary, lesser maximum in the Worcester Hills. Interestingly, another secondary maximum shows up over Southeast MA and Cape Cod, likely owing to the storms that produced heaviest precipitation there while sliding southeast.Though this won't be the final forecast, it's always helpful to see where history suggests we'll fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey guys, I posted this in the banter thread too...but it applies for here more so since more people are posting in here: Yes, I'm going to use this as an opprtunity to tell people to post more in the storm banter thread (specifically created for this threat) if it is not direct model/pattern/storm analysis in this thread. Talking about storm impact is OK too I think....but the general banter of "is my flight going to be canceled" and that kind of stuff should go into the banter thread. Now that we are starting to get closer to the event and since the Euro just dumped a huge snowstorm on a large chunk of SNE, we want to keep the content in here more pure as the post rate will likely be increasing between now and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 *fwiw* which isn't too much at all. euro weenie snow maps are a foot everywhere east of 395/ORH area to CHH. 18"+ for all of RI up to BOS and back to 495 and down to the canal. weenie bullseye of 2' just SW of BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 *fwiw* which isn't too much at all. euro weenie snow maps are a foot everywhere east of 395/ORH area to CHH. 18"+ for all of RI up to BOS and back to 495 and down to the canal. weenie bullseye of 2' just SW of BOS What about n of Boston and inside of I495? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFs anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 this has a bit of 2/25/99 look to it the way the ULL gets tugged back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC down to 30% for 8”, 50% for 6” in 24 hours for here. 48 hours are not out yet. More bullish than I expected, don’t know where that 6” comes from unless they think the EURO isn’t done coming NW, but they usually know their stuff over there and don’t just rip and read, so it’s hard to ignore. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 *fwiw* which isn't too much at all. euro weenie snow maps are a foot everywhere east of 395/ORH area to CHH. 18"+ for all of RI up to BOS and back to 495 and down to the canal. weenie bullseye of 2' just SW of BOS How about SNH? Seems to get forgotten in the mix..;P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The qualitative distribution of snowfall seems pretty similar to April 1, 1997 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFs came a decent amount S...however, they increased the size of the 2"+ qpf max in E MA. ALmost looks like the Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What about n of Boston and inside of I495? seriously these products are clown products but 18" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 this has a bit of 2/25/99 look to it the way the ULL gets tugged back Cape special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The rest of the OCM should use NWS odds based forecasts until right at the time it is hitting. I think 50% of >4 inches would have sufficient impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 seriously these products are clown products but 18" for you. Cool...thanks for humoring me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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