Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 channel 7 Thursday: Storm! Wind, rain & wet snow. Accumulating snow possible along & outside I-495 Thursday afternoon. Highs from 32-39. Northeast wind 15-35mph with gusts near 50mph along the coast. Friday: Light rain & snow tapers to cloudy skies by afternoon. Highs from 35-40. Northeast wind 10-20mph. Saturday: Just dandy with sunny skies. Highs in the low 50s....low 40s along the coast (welcome to sea breeze season). Channel 5 Rip/Read the RPM but ignore the heavier totals for some reason. Channel 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 At least Upton has something. You think these will be the final totals? Just have a little patience and the forecast will get out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm surprised at how cold the Euro is. I hope its not being too cold...like it was in the 2/27 event I was just thinking the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 At least Upton has something. Cut the NWS some slack. They already have Hazardous Weather Outlooks up. They've been up since this AM. Forecasts are typically updated AM and PM around the 4 o'clock hour. Intermediate updates are usually not whole-scale and usually just update minor details. The 4pm AFD will be a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Failboat storm up here barring a Flutie hail mary. seems like the every mile of the 20 or so miles between us is a slight increase in hope.. not sure it adds up to enuf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 At least Upton has something. They get it before us so it makes more sense. Weenies galore today...me included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 seems like the every mile of the 20 or so miles between us is a slight increase in hope.. not sure it adds up to enuf It may as well be a different world between you two in this one it looks like. Models have been consistently coming towards a consensus of a sharp gradient in southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So during my drive to Front Royal VA for the storm I noticed the GFS went south and the EURO is a crush job, lol, these models I tell ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm having a CoastalWx vs Bourchard like conniption, but the public has no idea what might be in store. Was just talking to a pilot friend out of Boston. "Nah it's just a little rain and some wind" was his expectation for Thursday. Another buddy flying out has no worries, just some rain showers "I just saw the news at lunch" My biggest problem is the total break in consistency from the rest of the winter. You can't do THAT all winter, and then barely talk about this one at all or provide any real warning because the public is accustomed to hearing about real threats for many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They get it before us so it makes more sense. Weenies galore today...me included. Yeah. You should all be ashamed of yourselves. It's amazing how I stay so calm and collected. I'm really impressed with me. I imagine everyone else is as well. We should give me some sort of award. Maybe even several awards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It may as well be a different world between you two in this one it looks like. Models have been consistently coming towards a consensus of a sharp gradient in southern NH. The precip cutoff from SNE to CNE is kind of reminding me of Dec '92...just slice the actual amounts roughly in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It may as well be a different world between you two in this one it looks like. Models have been consistently coming towards a consensus of a sharp gradient in southern NH. It's amazing to see .4" or more out to Albany but C NH and MAine almost being shut out of the game. Aren't precip cut offs in coastal storms usually more NE to SW (diagnol vs horizontal) oriented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any guesses on the time table on this deal based on what we're looking at? Thanks I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm having a CoastalWx vs Bourchard like conniption, but the public has no idea what might be in store. Was just talking to a pilot friend out of Boston. "Nah it's just a little rain and some wind" was his expectation for Thursday. Another buddy flying out has no worries, just some rain showers "I just saw the news at lunch" My biggest problem is the total break in consistency from the rest of the winter. You can't do THAT all winter, and then barely talk about this one at all or provide any real warning because the public is accustomed to hearing about real threats for many days. It is understandable that they are cautious, but I didn't even hear any mention of the colder solutions or the potential for more significant snow. Reiner on 7 seemed pretty confident of rain right to 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's amazing to see .4" or more out to Albany but C NH and MAine almost being shut out of the game. Aren't precip cut offs in coastal storms usually more NE to SW (diagnol vs horizontal) oriented? That QPF to Albany is a result of the northern stream diving through NY state. That is a little too far south to focus the inverted trough up here. There is your QPF difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm having a CoastalWx vs Bourchard like conniption, but the public has no idea what might be in store. Was just talking to a pilot friend out of Boston. "Nah it's just a little rain and some wind" was his expectation for Thursday. Another buddy flying out has no worries, just some rain showers "I just saw the news at lunch" My biggest problem is the total break in consistency from the rest of the winter. You can't do THAT all winter, and then barely talk about this one at all or provide any real warning because the public is accustomed to hearing about real threats for many days. Well that's the problem. Public wants deterministic forecasts, and sometimes a forecast isn't black and white from day 5. This one is a great case for probabilistic forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Any guesses on the time table on this deal based on what we're looking at? Thanks I appreciate it. The meaningful snow wouldnt really hit until late tomorrow night or early Thu morning. There could be some nuisance snow...esp in the hills...tomorrow afternoon/evening, but really the meaningful stuff isn't until after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frozenoze Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 what are the thoughts regarding when the storm pulls away from BOS? with the current model information and potential QPF totals it doesn't look good for my 8pm flight out of BOS Friday night. Will wind be an issue also at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It may as well be a different world between you two in this one it looks like. Models have been consistently coming towards a consensus of a sharp gradient in southern NH. Ending up in the snowier of the two worlds would be fine by me. At least the gradient is looking to be at the southern extent of your forecast area instead of right through the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC (map put out at 4am) hammers general area from metro west (say natick/wellsley) N to say lincoln/bedford W into N ORH hills down thru extreme NE corner of CT and extreme N RI. slow drop off toward say woburn/ reading and then sharp drop off into essex county for NE mass on probs. . looks like a sharp cut off on probs for them SE of wrenthem to foxborough as well. bullseye for big totals for them is Central (about will into S ORH county highland down to N RI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 what are the thoughts regarding when the storm pulls away from BOS? with the current model information and potential QPF totals it doesn't look good for my 8pm flight out of BOS Friday night. Will wind be an issue also at that time? If the Euro verifies you'll automatically be delayed from the backup during the height of the storm....so good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ending up in the snowier of the two worlds would be fine by me. At least the gradient is looking to be at the southern extent of your forecast area instead of right through the middle. Well the middle of the CWA at least we'd know we should have some sort of headline up for part of the area. This makes it very difficult when it follows artificial NWS boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It is understandable that they are cautious, but I didn't even hear any mention of the colder solutions or the potential for more significant snow. Reiner on 7 seemed pretty confident of rain right to 128. That's my problem with it, just say, potential for a very large and damaging snowstorm but we're not sure yet, please check back in. They were VERY confident this was NBD. Huge phail no matter what. If this hits the damage they all did by not highlighting the potential will far outweigh the damage that would have been done if they went somewhat more aggressive and bust, JMHO. Well that's the problem. Public wants deterministic forecasts, and sometimes a forecast isn't black and white from day 5. This one is a great case for probabilistic forecasting. And it's still at the probabilistic stage. My only gripe with NOAA is that it's kind of clear outlets are waiting for their lead. Their caution is part of the problem JMHO when guys like Harv aren't around to help the staff. If they'd hoisted a watch already, the outlets would have been singing a different tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The meaningful snow wouldnt really hit until late tomorrow night or early Thu morning. There could be some nuisance snow...esp in the hills...tomorrow afternoon/evening, but really the meaningful stuff isn't until after 06z. Gotcha thanks, was hoping it would hold off until later Thursday, got a flight out of BOS at 11am that I'm not feeling too confident in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC hammers general area from metro west (say natick/wellsley) N to say lincoln/bedford W into N ORH hills down thru extreme NE corner of CT and extreme N RI. slow drop off toward say woburn/ reading and then sharp drop off into essex county for NE mass on probs. . looks like a sharp cut off on probs for them SE of wrenthem to foxborough as well. bullseye for big totals for them is Central (about will into S ORH county highland down to N RI border. Not that huge. Seems like they've settled around 6-8" for those areas. Mind you it's an average not the lollis, but I would say that's probably a couple inches too low at this point. Headed in the right direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 How long before we get Tolland DPW twitter posts? My Accuweather alarm is forecasting 8-12" here mixed with rain at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's my problem with it, just say, potential for a very large and damaging snowstorm but we're not sure yet, please check back in. They were VERY confident this was NBD. Huge phail no matter what. If this hits the damage they all did by not highlighting the potential will far outweigh the damage that would have been done if they went somewhat more aggressive and bust, JMHO. And it's still at the probabilistic stage. My only gripe with NOAA is that it's kind of clear outlets are waiting for their lead. Their caution is part of the problem JMHO when guys like Harv aren't around to help the staff. If they'd hoisted a watch already, the outlets would have been singing a different tune. The problem is they don't just put watches up to highlight a possible colder, snowier scenario. It's to highlight the 50% chance of seeing warning criteria snow. Those confidence levels just haven't been there until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, I've emerged from the lawn thread and see I might still get a few inches, high-end advisory might even be in the cards. Is the sense that morning flights from BDL on Friday would be pretty much on (albeit possibly delayed of de-icing)? Given duration, I'd think yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC has new 24 hr snow progs just updated with graphics http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=48&ptype=snow 48 hr progs not updated yet they aren't very bullish on accums from thur 7pm to fri 7pm with no areas above 50 percent for greater than 4 inches during that time. there is a area from say foxborough to rindge nh over to ray that is 40-50. and percentages slowly go down outside that area. but they show biggest impact clearly from wed eve to thur eve atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not that huge. Seems like they've settled around 6-8" for those areas. Mind you it's an average not the lollis, but I would say that's probably a couple inches too low at this point. Headed in the right direction though. This also needs to be kept in mind. For continuity the NWS does not like to make drastic changes to a forecast from shift to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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