Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39594-march-6-8-storm-banter/?p=2186564 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2.28" for BOS 2.48" HYAMan, 2.28" for Boston and 1.5" here?Sharp cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is there still a decent stall potential with this once it moves underneath SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Believe it or not, 12z GFS has it at 48 hrs.. Doesnt seem to have quite the same effect on that model though. Yeah funny I was just looking at that. It's had the s/w all along, but the fujiwhara I think is new. GFS does it too, timing is just different so the outcome is as well. NAM doesn't and that's why the NAM is an inferno and why it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Failboat storm up here barring a Flutie hail mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Man I know this is a tricky forecast, but a little surprised how bearish TV outlets are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm surprised at how cold the Euro is. I hope its not being too cold...like it was in the 2/27 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah funny I was just looking at that. It's had the s/w all along, but the fujiwhara I think is new. GFS does it too, timing is just different so the outcome is as well. NAM doesn't and that's why the NAM is an inferno and why it sucks I guess I need to learn more about fluid dynamics, but why doesnt that monster energy which precipitates the fujiwara dance phase with the primary center instead of dancing around it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah funny I was just looking at that. It's had the s/w all along, but the fujiwhara I think is new. GFS does it too, timing is just different so the outcome is as well. NAM doesn't and that's why the NAM is an inferno and why it sucks It's not all that new, the overnight runs had that going one with the two PV anomalies that I was posting about earlier. The fujiwara tugged things north, and the phase brought it to a stall as the northern PV was entrained into the southern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Man I know this is a tricky forecast, but a little surprised how bearish TV outlets are. Not just them, Taunton is saying this is similar to the snowbust of 2010 still at 140pm. I mean, it's like a bizzaro world. NO TWO EVENTS ARE IDENTICAL BUT THIS LOOKS A LOT LIKE 10 FEB 2010 SNOW BUST. DESPITE THIS OCEAN STORM EVOLVING INTO A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/FIRE HOSE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL SOUTH NEW ENGLAND...ABOUT 36N LATITUDE! THUS HEAVIEST PERSISTENT BANDED QPF SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET CONFINE HEAVY QPF SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BDL-ORH-MHT...WHICH FITS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. STAKES ARE ALWAYS HIGH WHENEVER SHARP QPF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not just them, Taunton is saying this is similar to the snowbust of 2010 still at 140pm. I mean, it's like a bizzaro world. NO TWO EVENTS ARE IDENTICAL BUT THIS LOOKS A LOT LIKE 10 FEB 2010 SNOW BUST. DESPITE THIS OCEAN STORM EVOLVING INTO A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/FIRE HOSE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL SOUTH NEW ENGLAND...ABOUT 36N LATITUDE! THUS HEAVIEST PERSISTENT BANDED QPF SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET CONFINE HEAVY QPF SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BDL-ORH-MHT...WHICH FITS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. STAKES ARE ALWAYS HIGH WHENEVER SHARP QPF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. FYI, that's still the midnight shift's wording. Probably just the near term that got updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's not all that new, the overnight runs had that going one with the two PV anomalies that I was posting about earlier. The fujiwara tugged things north, and the phase brought it to a stall as the northern PV was entrained into the southern. Cool, I fell asleep early last night, didn't see that discussion. Rare thing to see but it's been going on all week to our ENE so...not that unusual for this block. FYI, that's still the midnight shift's wording. Probably just the near term that got updated. Whoops, first time I'd looked at it today. They do need to do some updating. The page still has no headlines. No watch, nothing. First flakes are 36 or so hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm surprised at how cold the Euro is. I hope its not being too cold...like it was in the 2/27 event I was allowing it to be a little too cool, but I think it still looked good for ern areas. At least we don't have a screaming wind from 100 like last storm. Dynamics still are key here, so we'll need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm surprised at how cold the Euro is. I hope its not being too cold...like it was in the 2/27 event Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Man I know this is a tricky forecast, but a little surprised how bearish TV outlets are.You love your bulls and bears for are. Nice cold run for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Absolutely epic, have only seen this a few times in my life. Full fledge fuhiwhara. Yeah I know high bust, but we've got one going on now just to our ENE as this block developed, so not out of the realm at all. That's what Kevin's weenie looked like during the Feb. Bliz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Andy thanks for posting. I know you really like the UK. It's been lousy in these marginal situations down here all winter, I've pretty much stopped looking at it, as it missed just about every scraper right up to the end. That said, it could be right. Were you able to figure out what it said...lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Cool, I fell asleep early last night, didn't see that discussion. Rare thing to see but it's been going on all week to our ENE so...not that unusual for this block. Whoops, first time I'd looked at it today. They do need to do some updating. The page still has no headlines. No watch, nothing. First flakes are 36 or so hours away. A midday winter storm watch would be rare, no reason to rush one out. A warning or advisory if things were imminent would be a different story. But the watch can just as easily go up at 4 PM as it can at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NCEP will likely be going pretty big on the QPF package. PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE 00Z-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL (CONFIDENCE AVERAGE). A STRONG UPR LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO WED BEFORE TURNING EAST NORTHEAST LATE WED INTO THU AS IT TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WHILE AGREEMENT IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...DIFFERENCES IN TRACK DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW MUCH OF A N TURN THIS LOW WILL TAKE AS SOME MODEL FORECASTS HAVE A GREATER IMPACT IN NEW ENGLAND. THE OLDER NAM RUNS WERE ON THE SLOW END OF THE CYCLONE TIMING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE 12Z RUN HAS NUDGED THE FORWARD SPEED FASTER. THE NAM HAS NUDGED THE OVER-WATER TRACK NORTH OF ITS 00Z RUN BUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONS/TRACK. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED THE SFC-700 MB LOW FASTER OFFSHORE AND THIS TREND MAKES THE GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION OF THE SUITE OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN...A FASTER SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED....WITH THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN CLUSTERING BETTER TIMING WISE WITH THE 09Z SREF MEAN/12Z UKMET/00Z-12Z ECMWF. THE CONSENSUS PREFERENCE IS REPRESENTED BY A BLEND OF THE 00Z-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro 2.5-3" qpf BOS/PVD/Cape/Tan region. still going E areas friday afternoonlol. I feel bad for BOS TV. A lot of them had nothing for BOS at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What is The orientation of the firehose moving up along eastern half of sne? Wnw/ese allign or more nw/se ? Or somethin else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 .4" way out here. Not sure if we call this CCB or an inverted trough here, but whatever I'd take it. Beggars can't be choosers. E MA/RI still getting it good at 60 hours...even W SNE is getting some western CCB stuff. This is def the best Euro run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's going to be sharp on the northern edge. You'll get more from the inverted trough as the northern stream dives in. But QPF will be below 0.20" for your area in all likelihood. Ouch. This is going to be painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What is The orientation of the firehose moving up along eastern half of sne? Wnw/ese allign or more nw/se ? Or somethin else It looks pretty much like ML winds are coming in out of the east...though turning more ENE/NE with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ouch. This is going to be painful. Whenever DC is in the game, we're usually smoking cirrus up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Patience, those maps aren't supposed to be updated until there is a headline up. Forecasts will be out within the next two hours with the latest thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Patience, those maps aren't supposed to be updated until there is a headline up. Forecasts will be out within the next two hours with the latest thinking. At least Upton has something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol. I feel bad for BOS TV. A lot of them had nothing for BOS at noon. Eh' I think it's ok because the big viewer numbers are for the evening news and most of the metro forecast area is snow free through the evening commute tomorrow. I amazed at how tightly banded some of the precip contours are. There will be towns that have decent accumualtion differentials from E to W. That must be a huge pain for on air mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 At least Upton has something. I'd rather nothing than the deterministic forecast OKX has flying with numbers like 2.1" or 1.7" for a low confidence event that will span from tomorrow afternoon through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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