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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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BOX better throw up some WSW's fast.

 

Snow doesn't start until tomorrow night, warning criteria wouldn't be reached until well after that. Still plenty of time without hurriedly cranking products out.

 

Cruel. This one could be painful.

 

The Euro barely gets the 0.05" QPF line to GYX over 48 hours of the storm.

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Andy thanks for posting.

 

I know you really like the UK.  It's been lousy in these marginal situations down here all winter, I've pretty much stopped looking at it, as it missed just about every scraper right up to the end.  That said, it could be right.

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Andy thanks for posting.

 

I know you really like the UK.  It's been lousy in these marginal situations down here all winter, I've pretty much stopped looking at it, as it missed just about every scraper right up to the end.  That said, it could be right.

It has its moments. LOL Just posted it for craps and laughs.

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not bad...hopefully we can get it all at once and get some snow out of it...

If the EURO is correct, and I'm inclined to think it is because of the disaster that NECP has been recently, we see .68 at BDR thursday night into friday from the NORLUN. and it probably would accumulate too.

-skisheep

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Andy thanks for posting.

 

I know you really like the UK.  It's been lousy in these marginal situations down here all winter, I've pretty much stopped looking at it, as it missed just about every scraper right up to the end.  That said, it could be right.

 

I believe Uncle verifies second behind the King!  Does seem strange though doesnt it?!

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You think this thing is as nw as its going to get?

 

I'm pretty much all out of ideas.  What saves us is this monster s/w coming down.  The NAM says no dice and sends it towards Quebec.  Statistically speaking no model scores as well as the Euro at this range, not all that close even.  I think we have to go with the full out solution like this, but with the understanding that it's going to shift some.

post-3232-0-82792200-1362508321_thumb.jp

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If the EURO is correct, and I'm inclined to think it is because of the disaster that NECP has been recently, we see .68 at BDR thursday night into friday from the NORLUN. and it probably would accumulate too.

-skisheep

So what does BDR get Wed night into Thursday?  Will had said .80 and I assumed that was for Wed/Thurs...is the .68 in addition to that?

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So to review where we are right now:

12z GFS: Big snow

12z NAM: Some snow then rain to California

12z Euro: Huge snow

12z GGEM: Big snow for some, nice hit and worse than last run

12z GEFS: Big hit

SREFS: Huge hit

Forecasts...no watches, most TV outlets calling for a few slushy inches in the hills, nothing really in Boston.

its getting to the point of must watch tv. They have such post traumatic stress from 23-24 feb flop and social media backlash. The mets will go all in at some point if models stay the course. They have to b careful how they segway into the hvy wet snow scenario.if models keep us barely on the big hit side w large bust potential things will get interesting. Very
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Looks like the EURO is only .25" or so for BDR  with round one, but .68 with the trough on round 2. How do temps looks for the thursday night trough? 2-4" lollies to 5" with it seems possible.

Congrats to most everyone on this fourm, you are going to get a nice snowfall! The rich get richer this winter...

 

-skisheep

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So what does BDR get Wed night into Thursday?  Will had said .80 and I assumed that was for Wed/Thurs...is the .68 in addition to that?

I'm not sure, if that .8" is only for wed/thurs, than this got a lot more intresting, that's proably enough to get some accumulations down here...

-skisheep

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Looks like the EURO is only .25" or so for BDR  with round one, but .68 with the trough on round 2. How do temps looks for the thursday night trough? 2-4" lollies to 5" with it seems possible.

Congrats to most everyone on this fourm, you are going to get a nice snowfall! The rich get richer this winter...

 

-skisheep

.25 ain't gonna do it...have to hope for one more shift NW....and that Norlun trough--who knows...those are almost always nowcast situations

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I'm pretty much all out of ideas.  What saves us is this monster s/w coming down.  The NAM says no dice and sends it towards Quebec.  Statistically speaking no model scores as well as the Euro at this range, not all that close even.  I think we have to go with the full out solution like this, but with the understanding that it's going to shift some.

 

Believe it or not, 12z GFS has it at 48 hrs.. Doesnt seem to have quite the same effect on that model though. :axe:

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.25 ain't gonna do it...have to hope for one more shift NW....and that Norlun trough--who knows...those are almost always nowcast situations

I'm not sure if the .8 is only for round one, or for storm total. I'm getting my info from accu forums, NYC fourm, and here. I don't have EURO access, can someone with access clarify if the .8 for here is only round one or the storm total, as well as temps(I'm assuming it's cold enough for all snow, but not sure)

-skisheep

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