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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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Does Euro get the QPF up into Central NE?   I hate asking in my backyard questions but the Euro is the only model I can't see.   Any takers for total QPF for up here!!   Thank you in advance for responding to IMBY question!!

 

It's going to be sharp on the northern edge. You'll get more from the inverted trough as the northern stream dives in. But QPF will be below 0.20" for your area in all likelihood.

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If it pans out as currently progged, do we laud the GFS for sniffing out the qpf idea into SNE when the ECM was playing Dr. No, or do we laud the ECM for the better late than never idea, or do we chuck them all as gospel, realizing we place way too much credence in them, using them as gospel vs guidance?   The GFS going with the tiny qpf idea, except for eastern most areas, after having shown 1.5"+ qpf for most of SNE for several consecutive runs including some within 72 hrs, considering its within about 30 hrs of start time, is really horrible.  
But, it was among the first to sniff out the northward possibility the  Ecm is now showing, albeit, modified some.   Model Mayhem at its finest... Im so confused!    :axe:

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So to review where we are right now:

 

12z GFS:  Big snow

12z NAM:  Some snow then rain to California

12z Euro:  Huge snow

12z GGEM: Big snow for some, nice hit and worse than last run

12z GEFS: Big hit

SREFS:  Huge hit

 

Forecasts...no watches, most TV outlets calling for a few slushy inches in the hills, nothing really in Boston.

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