OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol...not a bold statement prior to a winter storm....lol. certainly not lol. I just think there are more concerns for lower elevation areas than areas that are far enough east but have elevation...maybe even Foster, RI would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think BOX so far has handled this very nicely. I wouldn't want to be paid to forecast but if I was with my limited weenie knowledge, I'd put out snow or mix, possibly rain in some areas. Could be plowable and we'll get details hopefully by late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 certainly not lol. I just think there are more concerns for lower elevation areas than areas that are far enough east but have elevation...maybe even Foster, RI would be better. Yeah I think many of us have high glop potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You have your own dedicated thread if I remember. From the get go this was a ENE storm threat but let's see what the Euro says. I was speaking more about Ryan's area and the western SNE areas where folks have been more meh. Good luck, Steve. Hopefully this works out like you think it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Is this a joke? GFS had a bonified snowstorm here for 7 runs, borderline blizzard, this comment is false. Is this a joke? GFS had a bonified snowstorm here for 7 runs, borderline blizzard, this comment is false.Meterology not modeology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The King will speak in 20 minutes and the vast bulk of met's will jump on with whatever it says. Nothing else is remotely trustworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think BOX so far has handled this very nicely. I wouldn't want to be paid to forecast but if I was with my limited weenie knowledge, I'd put out snow or mix, possibly rain in some areas. Could be plowable and we'll get details hopefully by late tonight. Agreed, they've given the scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 is it me or are the 12z gefs pretty damn close QPF wise to the 0z euro ens (at least for E 1/2 of SNE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I can envision this being a 33F paste/mix in BOS while ORH dumps at 27F. Coastal regions and SE MASS have to be wary of issues. No ways around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 With all the talks of GGEM being a big hit, that model shows why just ripping QPF values may not be the smartest move. That's like a 36 hour event, though it does get a couple 6 hour periods of 0.25< to BOS-PVD with one period where possibly 0.5"< gets into SE MA. That still looks like it would be a solid 6-12 inch snowfall in SE MA but it would probably all accumulate in like a 12 hour burst, bookended by hours and hours of light rain or light snow at like 34-35F. Could see why CT mets are cautious as even the "big hit GGEM" never has a 6-hour QPF value over 0.1-0.25" in that area. The "slow burn" method of accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow Channel 7 called for no snow in the 128 corridor. Actually no snow up and down eastern Mass. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 With all the talks of GGEM being a big hit, that model shows why just ripping QPF values may not be the smartest move. That's like a 36 hour event, though it does get a couple 6 hour periods of 0.25< to BOS-PVD with one period where possibly 0.5"< gets into SE MA. That still looks like it would be a solid 6-12 inch snowfall in SE MA but it would probably all accumulate in like a 12 hour burst, bookended by hours and hours of light rain or light snow at like 34-35F. Could see why CT mets are cautious as even the "big hit GGEM" never has a 6-hour QPF value over 0.1-0.25" in that area. The "slow burn" method of accumulating snow. That may not bode well for valley until dark, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow Channel 7 called for no snow in the 128 corridor. Actually no snow up and down eastern Mass. What do you guys think? I think they knee jerk'd too hard the other way and it will bite them . big disconnect from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That may not bode well for valley until dark, Yeah I think you're fine. Obviously best spot in CT looks to be NE hills up at 800ft+... like you're spot, my family's place on the hill on the Woodstock/Union border up to Will... that'll have the best chance of accumulating normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah I think you're fine. Obviously best spot in CT looks to be NE hills up at 800ft+... like you're spot, my family's place on the hill on the Woodstock/Union border up to Will... that'll have the best chance of accumulating normally.If euro is right it's a 28 degree powdery deal but I can also see a more 30-31 paster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Shore Slop Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think we are going to get snained on. You might see flakes out the window but there will be puddles forming on the ground. We had about 5 hours of snain a few weeks ago... Wow Channel 7 called for no snow in the 128 corridor. Actually no snow up and down eastern Mass. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, some foriegn guidance continues a big hit for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 With all the talks of GGEM being a big hit, that model shows why just ripping QPF values may not be the smartest move. That's like a 36 hour event, though it does get a couple 6 hour periods of 0.25< to BOS-PVD with one period where possibly 0.5"< gets into SE MA. That still looks like it would be a solid 6-12 inch snowfall in SE MA but it would probably all accumulate in like a 12 hour burst, bookended by hours and hours of light rain or light snow at like 34-35F. Could see why CT mets are cautious as even the "big hit GGEM" never has a 6-hour QPF value over 0.1-0.25" in that area. The "slow burn" method of accumulating snow. Translated: The GGEM has 4 6hr periods of 7.5/10mm or better, 2 of which are over 15mm. Upslope is light and variable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro looks almost dead on with 00z through 36h. Not expecting big changes this run. Its actually a bit north with QPF in the M.A. region in NJ/PHL area, but that might not mean anything. Trying to multi-task at the moment too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro looks almost dead on with 00z through 36h. Not expecting big changes this run. Its actually a bit north with QPF in the M.A. region in NJ/PHL area, but that might not mean anything. Trying to multi-task at the moment too. NYC seems happy with it, probably will be a bit better for down here. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro looks almost dead on with 00z through 36h. Not expecting big changes this run. Its actually a bit north with QPF in the M.A. region in NJ/PHL area, but that might not mean anything. Trying to multi-task at the moment too. Yeah I thought it was escaping but it's a nice hit it appears at least looking at 48 hours. Definitely better being in the eastern half of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro looks almost dead on with 00z through 36h. Not expecting big changes this run. Its actually a bit north with QPF in the M.A. region in NJ/PHL area, but that might not mean anything. Trying to multi-task at the moment too.Screw work we need you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yikes....Euro keesps it awfully cold mid day Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Def a tick north in SNE through 48 hours...SE MA/RI/SE CT getting the CCB decently by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 we just need that euro firehose hr 60-66 give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 east of I-395 second half of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NYC seems happy with it, probably will be a bit better for down here. -skisheep Never mind, they have changed their tone, looks almost identical to 0z. for down here at least, NEXT!(Most on this forum should still see a nice snowfall, but here will not be one of those places) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 east of I-395 second half of winter Man you're a sniper....that just made me burst out laughing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro looks good for ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4pm updated Boston TV forecast: Heavy sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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