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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part III


Baroclinic Zone

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I think BOX so far has handled this very nicely. I wouldn't want to be paid to forecast but if I was with my limited weenie knowledge, I'd put out snow or mix, possibly rain in some areas. Could be plowable and we'll get details hopefully by late tonight.

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You have your own dedicated thread if I remember. From the get go this was a ENE storm threat but let's see what the Euro says.

 

I was speaking more about Ryan's area and the western SNE areas where folks have been more meh.

 

Good luck, Steve.  Hopefully this works out like you think it should.

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I think BOX so far has handled this very nicely. I wouldn't want to be paid to forecast but if I was with my limited weenie knowledge, I'd put out snow or mix, possibly rain in some areas. Could be plowable and we'll get details hopefully by late tonight.

Agreed, they've given the scenarios.

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With all the talks of GGEM being a big hit, that model shows why just ripping QPF values may not be the smartest move.  That's like a 36 hour event, though it does get a couple 6 hour periods of 0.25< to BOS-PVD with one period where possibly 0.5"< gets into SE MA.  That still looks like it would be a solid 6-12 inch snowfall in SE MA but it would probably all accumulate in like a 12 hour burst, bookended by hours and hours of light rain or light snow at like 34-35F.

 

Could see why CT mets are cautious as even the "big hit GGEM" never has a 6-hour QPF value over 0.1-0.25" in that area.  The "slow burn" method of accumulating snow.

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With all the talks of GGEM being a big hit, that model shows why just ripping QPF values may not be the smartest move. That's like a 36 hour event, though it does get a couple 6 hour periods of 0.25< to BOS-PVD with one period where possibly 0.5"< gets into SE MA. That still looks like it would be a solid 6-12 inch snowfall in SE MA but it would probably all accumulate in like a 12 hour burst, bookended by hours and hours of light rain or light snow at like 34-35F.

Could see why CT mets are cautious as even the "big hit GGEM" never has a 6-hour QPF value over 0.1-0.25" in that area. The "slow burn" method of accumulating snow.

That may not bode well for valley until dark,
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That may not bode well for valley until dark,

 

Yeah I think you're fine.  Obviously best spot in CT looks to be NE hills up at 800ft+... like you're spot, my family's place on the hill on the Woodstock/Union border up to Will... that'll have the best chance of accumulating normally.

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Yeah I think you're fine. Obviously best spot in CT looks to be NE hills up at 800ft+... like you're spot, my family's place on the hill on the Woodstock/Union border up to Will... that'll have the best chance of accumulating normally.

If euro is right it's a 28 degree powdery deal but I can also see a more 30-31 paster
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With all the talks of GGEM being a big hit, that model shows why just ripping QPF values may not be the smartest move.  That's like a 36 hour event, though it does get a couple 6 hour periods of 0.25< to BOS-PVD with one period where possibly 0.5"< gets into SE MA.  That still looks like it would be a solid 6-12 inch snowfall in SE MA but it would probably all accumulate in like a 12 hour burst, bookended by hours and hours of light rain or light snow at like 34-35F.

 

Could see why CT mets are cautious as even the "big hit GGEM" never has a 6-hour QPF value over 0.1-0.25" in that area.  The "slow burn" method of accumulating snow.

 

Translated:  The GGEM has 4 6hr periods of 7.5/10mm or better, 2 of which are over 15mm.

 

Upslope is light and variable

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Euro looks almost dead on with 00z through 36h. Not expecting big changes this run. Its actually a bit north with QPF in the M.A. region in NJ/PHL area, but that might not mean anything. Trying to multi-task at the moment too.

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Euro looks almost dead on with 00z through 36h. Not expecting big changes this run. Its actually a bit north with QPF in the M.A. region in NJ/PHL area, but that might not mean anything. Trying to multi-task at the moment too.

NYC seems happy with it, probably will be a bit better for down here.

-skisheep

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Euro looks almost dead on with 00z through 36h. Not expecting big changes this run. Its actually a bit north with QPF in the M.A. region in NJ/PHL area, but that might not mean anything. Trying to multi-task at the moment too.

Yeah I thought it was escaping but it's a nice hit it appears at least looking at 48 hours. Definitely better being in the eastern half of NE.

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NYC seems happy with it, probably will be a bit better for down here.

-skisheep

Never mind, they have changed their tone, looks almost identical to 0z.

for down here at least, NEXT!(Most on this forum should still see a nice snowfall, but here will not be one of those places)

-skisheep

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