ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS mirror the OP with the shift east/southeast. They really don't help us, they always seem to copy the OP once close enough in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is basically down to the hope of an inverted trough for anyone in western Mass, northwest CT or eastern NY. The NAM hits that pretty nice and the GFS has it also, but a bit north. I'm just a little perplexed at the model bashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I agree with you. In which post have I whined? Apparently being skeptical of heavy snows constitues being a "debby"...It's ok to disagree. LOL Ray, I was just poking at Ryan a little for saying the GGEM was a glancing blow when it's like 50+ mm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS mirror the OP with the shift east/southeast. They really don't help us, they always seem to copy the OP once close enough in Do you honestly think that rates would be robust enough to drop 1' of cement around here should these solutions come to pass?I honestly hope not....having car trouble and am getting rides to work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4 days of winter, 120 days of fail. 2nd worst winter of my lifetime behind last year in NYC. Chilly, cloudy, and muddy day after day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I agree with you. In which post have I whined? Apparently being skeptical of heavy snows constitues being a "debby"...It's ok to disagree. Not specifically you but when people expect heavy snows and the model shows/does not show it and they they go off. You can be skeptical of it as I am and you and not portray it in an emotional way. That's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL Ray, I was just poking at Ryan a little for saying the GGEM was a glancing blow when it's like 50+ mm here. Well, it's all about perspective....he's in W Hartford lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL Ray, I was just poking at Ryan a little for saying the GGEM was a glancing blow when it's like 50+ mm here. Metric conversion of a little under 2" QPF. Glancing at best. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 4 days of winter, 120 days of fail. 2nd worst winter of my lifetime behind last year in NYC. Chilly, cloudy, and muddy day after day. what are you smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not specifically you but when people expect heavy snows and the model shows/does not show it and they they go off. You can be skeptical of it as I am and you and not portray it in an emotional way. That's all I'm saying. Yea.....I'm not losing sleep.....the situation is just dubious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Do you honestly think that rates would be robust enough to drop 1' of cement around here should these solutions come to pass? I honestly hope not....having car trouble and am getting rides to work... I think you would accumulate fine if we get over 1 inch of liquid equivalent. It might be more like 6-10" of cement but it will accumulate if these profiles are correct. Perhaps they verify warmer and its 2" of slop...or we just don't end up getting into that firehose. That's another possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GEFS mirror the OP with the shift east/southeast. They really don't help us, they always seem to copy the OP once close enough in Agreed. As I said several times previously (with Tip's erroneous disagreement), the GEFS have clustered around and shifted with the OP inside 3 days this entire winter. That significantly limits their usefulness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I dunno if people want to rip and read QPF output that's fine. There's a chance it verifies. I just don't like the look. Not sure what else there is to add. Meteorology, not modelology. The funny thing is, in some events the folks ripping and reading the QPF now, will end up telling you not to rip and read QPF and go with synoptics when the QPF numbers get down into the 0.1-0.25" range, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Officially embarrassed by the media in Boston right now. Still showing the venerable RPM as their forecast. Ignoring the GGEM/Euro. I'm pulling for 18" in the cities just on principle, I want to see Mayor Menino foaming at the mouth when complaining about the lack of warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think you would accumulate fine if we get over 1 inch of liquid equivalent. It might be more like 6-10" of cement but it will accumulate if these profiles are correct. Perhaps they verify warmer and its 2" of slop...or we just don't end up getting into that firehose. That's another possibility. It would be cool to drop a 10-spot, while rev smokes mangled flakes, and drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Meteorology, not modelology. The funny thing is, in some events the folks ripping and reading the QPF now, will end up telling you not to rip and read QPF and go with synoptics when the QPF numbers get down into the 0.1-0.25" range, lol. Can't win. Rip and read QPF when it's big... use meteorology when QPF is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Agreed. As I said several times previously (with Tip's erroneous disagreement), the GEFS have clustered around and shifted with the OP inside 3 days this entire winter. That significantly limits their usefulness. Yeah pretty much not worth looking at...just look at the OP run and that's all you need to see with the GFS suite. The ensembles will look pretty close to it once inside of 3-4 days it seems. I'm pretty much ignoring NCEP guidance from here on in except maybe the NAM/SREF once we get to about 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yea sub par here also of course, but its all white and probably averages 8 inches in the woods. Seems like I'm driving into the coastal plain when I drive a mere 10 miles down into the Schenectady area. I was walking across a lawn near the State Library in Albany the other day and the ground felt squishy underfoot. Maybe they don't even have much frost in it. We have a pretty good frost in ours because of all those sub zero mornings with minimal snowcover. 4 days of winter, 120 days of fail. 2nd worst winter of my lifetime behind last year in NYC. Chilly, cloudy, and muddy day after day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 what are you smoking? Sorry, was making an IMBY post out of frustration. ENY is behind all of the NE except southern NYC. Dec 26-29 was all we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can't win. Rip and read QPF when it's big... use meteorology when QPF is low. What about when QPF is over 2" for my area? Is it meh? What's the meteorology behind the minimal snow #'s being thrown out there for E areas? Some are saying zilch as far as accumulations go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They let you back in here? LOL Inverted trough could still produce something for Roxbury/Plattekill anyway. what are you smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Boston TV could save a lot of money, just hire an actor that hits the clicker so the RPM rolls across the screen. I never complain, but we're reaching all time new lows. I just watched an identical product on 5 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you get 1.5" of QPF protracted over a 48 hour window, you aren't getting anywhere near 15" of snow lol...more like 5". But, but, but that's what the NAM snow algorithm shows if you add up all the 3-hourly totals at a 10:1 ratio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What about when QPF is over 2" for my area? Is it meh? What's the meteorology behind the minimal snow #'s being thrown out there for E areas? Some are saying zilch as far as accumulations go. TBH I haven't really looked closely at your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Meteorology, not modelology. The funny thing is, in some events the folks ripping and reading the QPF now, will end up telling you not to rip and read QPF and go with synoptics when the QPF numbers get down into the 0.1-0.25" range, lol. Funny thing is GGEM rips ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Unreadable nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Boston TV could save a lot of money, just hire an actor that hits the clicker so the RPM rolls across the screen. I never complain, but we're reaching all time new lows. I just watched an identical product on 5 and 4. The weird thing is they should be hammering epic totals for the 495 belt and out to ORH if they are hugging the RPM...but they aren't hammering totals anywhere. Might be a good forecast to keep it conservative, but they should at least explain potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Unreadable nonsense It's like the twilight zone. Boston TV mets are now RPM parrots and everyone ignores suddenly the two best models we have 48 hours out. What's the forecast being based on the NAM/NOGAPS combo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The weird thing is they should be hammering epic totals for the 495 belt and out to ORH if they are hugging the RPM...but they aren't hammering totals anywhere. Might be a good forecast to keep it conservative, but they should at least explain potential. Yep. I think we're figuring out how critical it is to have a Barry Burbank, Harv type guy in the mix and to his credit Bouchard. Clearly the others just follow their lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yea sub par here also of course, but its all white and probably averages 8 inches in the woods. Seems like I'm driving into the coastal plain when I drive a mere 10 miles down into the Schenectady area. I was walking across a lawn near the State Library in Albany the other day and the ground felt squishy underfoot. Maybe they don't even have much frost in it. We have a pretty good frost in ours because of all those sub zero mornings with minimal snowcover. Yeah I've noticed good snow retention up your way despite missing the bullseyes. Down in the valley is feels like a lower Westchester Co winter minus the coastal noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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